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Macro economic changes coming

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A conversion is not inexpensive nor easy. I know I have done two of them. Currently a quality conversion will run $25K. And you need the donor car. That will give one a 100 mile range and a reasonable 7 sec 0-60. I am also including heat and air. Yes it can be done cheaper if you want 50 miles range and 12 sec 0-60. With a Leaf running $26k with the rebate it will be very hard to compete. That is the reason I am now driving a Roadster.
...In 10 years if a car like the Leaf is even cheaper, I'd rather get than than take a 10 year old car for an aftermarket conversion to electric.

I qualified all this.
700 mile batteries, that means it will be cheaper than today and the conversion will go 300 (not 40 or 50 miles).. There will be serious kits for makes and shops that specialize ( a world of Gadgets) . I'm talking Classic cars (58 Corvette, Ferrari Dino, NSX) and Vintage, (Cord, Tucker), and favorites, Miata, Mini, and Bugs, I am not suggesting people will be converting blah everyday K cars Celicas, or Oldsmobiles. those ICE will be rendered obsolete by EVs.
 
Even though more respected authorities are predicting peak oil this decade, I don't think EV fans should be popping the champagne corks just yet.

I think we will see oil companies bring in more and more GTL fuels as Shell have done with V-Power diesel.

There is a lot of unconventional oil possibilities - but all with greatly diminished EROEI. Conventional oil, ofcourse, peaked last decade.
 
In 10 years

  • you will see cars on car magazin's title pages but without mentioning the drive train You have to read the article to find out if it is electric or legacy hybrid.
  • every kid in school knows that ICEs are a nightmare to possess, wrt fuel and maintenance cost.
  • Shell, Honda, and Daimler put their hydrogen plans to a rest for good.
  • Top Gear will test the new Lamborghini Xador (read: Crusader) with a heavily downsized 580hp triple supercharged 1.3L V6 ICE engine and find it "lame off the line" when compared to the Gen III based Tesla Roadster 3.

downsides without twinkle in the eyes
  • lots of people can no longer afford individual mobility in a car like we do today. New mobility concepts are evolving like car sharing, autonomous taxi, public transport. But there are teething problems.
  • Oil is so expensive that non-transportation sector now makes over 80% of its use. The transportation sector is either electric or uses synthetic hydrocarbons that were produced using renewable energy
OK the last one is in 20 years.
 
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I qualified all this.
700 mile batteries, that means it will be cheaper than today and the conversion will go 300 (not 40 or 50 miles).. There will be serious kits for makes and shops that specialize ( a world of Gadgets) . I'm talking Classic cars (58 Corvette, Ferrari Dino, NSX) and Vintage, (Cord, Tucker), and favorites, Miata, Mini, and Bugs, I am not suggesting people will be converting blah everyday K cars Celicas, or Oldsmobiles. those ICE will be rendered obsolete by EVs.
An EV-converted Tucker would be a hell of a thing. In so many ways.