I hope we will see 4680 because
1. they have limited production 4680 and could use for a limited car line (S/X). It's new tech. Isn't it better to scale on a low run car, than start scaling into high production car like Berlin Y? If have problems, better to stop the S/X than a new factory in Germany dependent on the cells.
2. S/X battery was designed to be hot-swapped right? Tesla has a vid on web from 2013 showing 93 second battery swap. Could a 4680 pack fit into the same space without a total car redesign? Would think so even though taller cells. They are smart at Tesla.
3. Selling existing S/X demo stock, no tests drives right now? If car was the same, why would they do that?
4. Competition is coming to the S/X in Rivian and Lucid. If Tesla waits until they are out this summer THEN does an update, Tesla blew that 8 year lead and let the EV competition catch them while working on 3/Y, CT and $25k car. I know lots of priorities, only so much time/money. But a shame to blow that lead, let the S/X wither and get caught by others.
5. I REALLY want the extra bit of range to be sure I can get to our cabin in the dead of winter on a single charge. No Sc on the way. 1 destination charger on route if have to . This would make the decision to can our ICE SRX even easier to swallow. Yes, this update is all about me.
Apple didn't wait for Android to catch them and then move iPhone 3 forward. As a 'tech company' that the Tesla stock is priced as, Tesla needs to stay ahead. (wait, apple does like to let other try things and THEN take the best from them, but that is a separate story I don't really want to start right now).