TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Do some crypto trading. It's 24/7 ;-) And it looks like a good day as well!

Well I do look at this from time-to-time, but just for fun: Bitcoin Ticker - Tick by tick - Real time updates

Don't really understand it enough to invest anything, would rather gamble on some TSLA options, at least there I'm pretty sure I'll lose my deposit

 

[ruralectric]

Bloody hell, how do I keep myself occupied then? I might be forced to do some work

TE seems to be going in the right direction, with lots of little news stories popping-up about new insatllations. These aren't trumpeted by Tesla, but could be a dark-horse for future ER's

Regarding Tesla Energy, you might want to check out my post in the discussion thread. Should keep you occupied for a bit : )
General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

 

[Causalien]

We did use them but as time passed people started putting their strategies/trades here instead. Old-timers knew about them but old timers don't post their strategies a lot anymore, in general. IMO, the strategies got overrun by extremely bullish postings about 'buy now, the SP is about to explode upward' now, or at the latest, tomorrow.

I am seeing both TSLA = $500 within 2 years and a recession within 3. Torn by which one is right. Worst is both are right and happen one after another. All our portfolios gets killed either way so not really worth discussing.

 

[Paracelsus]

I am seeing both TSLA = $500 within 2 years and a recession within 3. Torn by which one is right. Worst is both are right and happen one after another. All our portfolios gets killed either way so not really worth discussing.

Thanks for your insight on this @Causalien. I have enjoyed seeing how frequently your Magic 8 Ball has been correct for about the last 5 years now. There is a lot of discussion on this board about how TSLA is more 'recession-proofed' than other stocks. Under your scenario of a recession in 3 years, how far do you think TSLA could fall, and perhaps more importantly how long before TSLA recovers to its pre-recession stock price? (i.e. for a Magic 8 Ball answer... 600 down to 300 and back to 600 in 2 years)

Thanks in advance!

 

[jbcarioca]

I am seeing both TSLA = $500 within 2 years and a recession within 3. Torn by which one is right. Worst is both are right and happen one after another. All our portfolios gets killed either way so not really worth discussing.

Sadly, I think your least desirable outlook may be most probable.This discussion would belong in another thread, but we do have some major indicators that make such an outcome quite plausible.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I am seeing both TSLA = $500 within 2 years and a recession within 3. Torn by which one is right. Worst is both are right and happen one after another. All our portfolios gets killed either way so not really worth discussing.

Could you please walk us through how you concluded that "$500 within 2 years" is one of the likely outcomes? I have a fairly good understanding of Tesla's competitive advantages, and disadvantages, but I'm specifically interested in the $500 PT mathematically. Thanks in advance.

 

[Dwdnjck]

Sadly, I think your least desirable outlook may be most probable.This discussion would belong in another thread, but we do have some major indicators that make such an outcome quite plausible.

Especially the orange one.

 

[Starno]

Thanks for your insight on this @Causalien. I have enjoyed seeing how frequently your Magic 8 Ball has been correct for about the last 5 years now. There is a lot of discussion on this board about how TSLA is more 'recession-proofed' than other stocks. Under your scenario of a recession in 3 years, how far do you think TSLA could fall, and perhaps more importantly how long before TSLA recovers to its pre-recession stock price? (i.e. for a Magic 8 Ball answer... 600 down to 300 and back to 600 in 2 years)

Thanks in advance!

Interested as well.

In my case I also agree with this projection I just think the recession will happen in 18-24 months.
I think Tesla SP will lose 40-50% . Similarly to Apple in 2008.
I'm not sure from where it will fall, but I'd say somewhere in this range 550-700. to 275-350.

A lot will depend on the severity of the market crash and recession. We might only lose 40% or 60%+ if it's a stinky one. And it might be one, not because of the state of the economy in itself but because of the political tensions existing.

 

[kbM3]

Interested as well.

In my case I also agree with this projection I just think the recession will happen in 18-24 months.
I think Tesla SP will lose 40-50% . Similarly to Apple in 2008.
I'm not sure from where it will fall, but I'd say somewhere in this range 550-700. to 275-350.

A lot will depend on the severity of the market crash and recession. We might only lose 40% or 60%+ if it's a stinky one. And it might be one, not because of the state of the economy in itself but because of the political tensions existing.

2008 was a once every 2-3 generations event. What makes you think the next recession would be that bad?

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I am seeing both TSLA = $500 within 2 years and a recession within 3. Torn by which one is right. Worst is both are right and happen one after another. All our portfolios gets killed either way so not really worth discussing.

I think you’re right about both, though I could see a recession being 4-5 years out instead of 3. I could also see it happening sooner.

I think TSLA is more recession-resistant than most stocks. A recession would hurt the price:sales ratio (hopefully price:earnings ratio by then), but revenues should continue to grow. S/X sales would dip, but 3 sales should hold steady as it hoovers up former ICE owners, and Y, Semi, and Tesla Energy should be experiencing explosive growth as they offer savings over their competitors.

So during a recession, revenues should continue strong growth, and while the SP may flatline or even go lightly negative, it should be up relative to the rest of the market.

 

[Starno]

2008 was a once every 2-3 generations event. What makes you think the next recession would be that bad?

I don't think there is a debt issue at the extent of 2008.
My concern is the mix of recession (even if it won't be like in 2008) with political tensions (between the left and the right). That's a stinky recipe IMO. Especially as the recession will probably happen right before the next US elections.

 

[MartinAustin]

No market action today, huh?

I get the feeling TSLA is not the subject of large attacks in either direction so far today.

 

[Starno]

No market action today, huh?

I get the feeling TSLA is not the subject of large attacks in either direction so far today.

It's headed in the right direction so far

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

No market action today, huh?

Trading shares: Buy at 335, sell at 340. Wash, rinse, repeat. If it dips again, I’ll buy again.

Core holdings: continue to hold, as always.

 

[Tenable]

Trading shares: Buy at 335, sell at 340. Wash, rinse, repeat. If it dips again, I’ll buy again.

Core holdings: continue to hold, as always.

I had large day trading buy orders at 330.50, never even got close. Stupid TSLA

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Who also think we will be in the 330-360 range until after Q1 production numbers?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I had large day trading buy orders at 330.50, never even got close. Stupid TSLA

@Esme Es Mejor , do your thing!

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Who also think we will be in the 330-360 range until after Q1 production numbers?

I think that’s exactly where we should be. InsideEVs numbers for February could push me up or down on that thinking, but most likely will confirm it.

 

[Tenable]

Who also think we will be in the 330-360 range until after Q1 production numbers?

Likely a reasonable expectation. Sadly I'm too much of a silly ultra bull, as such I'm afraid to sell calls below $405. Here's hoping we break out of the range.. to $405.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I had large day trading buy orders at 330.50, never even got close. Stupid TSLA

The standard advice is to Buy The Dip (BTD), but lately a better approach has been Buy The Early Rise (BTER, “better” or “butter”).

There’s often a buyable dip later in the day, but the MMD has been MIA most days.