TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[defc0n]

We didn't get anywhere near that level with the 12% S&P correction in February. It would take more than that, perhaps twice that correction. Possible but not at all likely.

Yeah I was surprised we didn't break 300 then. I believe TSLA was a bit fortunate at the time to have a relatively high price when the correction happened.

I look at it this way, examining the local highs and lows of TSLAs price movements when it had major swings of volatility in the span of a few months:

09/30/2013 - 193.37
11/26/2013 - 120.50
37.7% loss

03/04/2014 - 254.84
05/08/2014 - 178.59
30.0% loss

09/04/2014 - 286.04
03/27/2015 - 185.00
35.3% loss

07/20/2015 - 282.26
02/10/2016 - 143.67
49.1% loss

04/06/2016 - 265.42
11/14/2016 - 181.45 (Spiegel bottom)
31.6% loss

06/23/2017 - 383.45
11/02/2017 - 299.26
22.0% loss

02/26/2018 - 357.42
??/??/???? - ???.??
??.?% loss

Perhaps TSLA is more mature now and less likely to have quite as severe price swings. I wouldn't count on that, though. Ever since the infamous 11/14/2016 Spiegel bottom, things have behaved quite a bit different.

A price of 245.00 would be a 36.1% drop from 383.45, and a 31.5% drop from 357.42. Judging from past "normal" periods of volatility, that wouldn't be terribly surprising to me.

That said, I still wouldn't think you are crazy if you think 305-310 is a current bottom. But I definitely wouldn't be terribly sure of it.

 

[defc0n]

For fun, the GS target price of 205.00 would be a 46.5% loss from 383.45, and a 42.6% loss from 357.42.

 

[sundaymorning]

02/26/2018 - 357.42
??/??/???? - ???.??
??.?% loss

That said, I still wouldn't think you are crazy if you think 305-310 is a current bottom. But I definitely wouldn't be terribly sure of it.

Since you are accounting for the ATH of Tesla tops and comparing it to the ATL drops, wouldn’t it make sense to use the new ATH of $392? This would be more reflective of a steap drop. Also, in previous drops there were some black swan macro events: fi*res, Russia/Ukraine, Greece, Brexit, MX delays with no end in sight. No such macro events loom on the markets presently.

 

[defc0n]

Since you are accounting for the ATH of Tesla tops and comparing it to the ATL drops, wouldn’t it make sense to use the new ATH of $392? This would be more reflective of a steap drop. Also, in previous drops there were some black swan macro events: fi*res, Russia/Ukraine, Greece, Brexit, MX delays with no end in sight. No such macro events loom on the markets presently.

I used the closing prices of the tops and bottoms. When was $392?

 

[bdy0627]

A little more info to consider with dips like this one we are enjoying now:

Less than 10% of TSLA dips over the last 12 months have ended after a drop of 7%
25% ended after a drop of 8%
33% ended after a drop of 10%
58% ended after a drop of 11%
75% ended after a drop of 12%
The 3 that dropped more than 12% fell all the way to 18 - 21%

Right now, the low on this dip is $308, which is a drop of 11.2% from the local high of $347 on 3/12.

 

[defc0n]

A little more info to consider with dips like this one we are enjoying now:

Less than 10% of TSLA dips over the last 12 months have ended after a drop of 7%
25% ended after a drop of 8%
33% ended after a drop of 10%
58% ended after a drop of 11%
75% ended after a drop of 12%
The 3 that dropped more than 12% fell all the way to 18 - 21%

Right now, the low on this dip is $308, which is a drop of 11.2% from the local high of $347 on 3/12.

280.00 would be a 21.6% drop from 357.42.

 

[bdy0627]

280.00 would be a 21.6% drop from 357.42.

I'm using intraday highs and lows rather than closing prices. Also, the local high I am using was the high of $347 on 3/12. That was a climb of over 8% from the local low of $321 on 3/7. For my purposes, that's more than noise. Any climbs/dips under 6%, I chalk up to noise and filter them out. It sounds like your noise filter is much larger.

 

[sundaymorning]

I used the closing prices of the tops and bottoms. When was $392?

I meant $389 ATH or 52 week high

 

[hoang51]

I think the simple answer is that shorts are still able to control this stock. There probably are a lot of investors on the sidelines right now for various reasons, including the Fed meeting.

I'm one of them, waiting for the Fed meeting. This also goes for other stocks I'm interested in buying, not just TSLA.

 

[bdy0627]

We had 1 drop of 21.5% in the last year out of 12 dips, so that's very rare and certainly not something you would want to bet much money on, but it's possible. Do you want to protect from that possibility? I guess it depends on your risk tolerance. On the other hand, we've had a lot of dips ending around 11-12%, so that might be an area where some would bet money on a reversal and they would usually be right.

 

[sundaymorning]

I'm one of them, waiting for the Fed meeting. This also goes for other stocks I'm interested in buying, not just TSLA.

Being that it’s the new Fed chair’s first meeting its doubtful that he will do anything out of the ordinary. Market action across the Dow, Naz S&P would seem to indicate this base on it being green today. My guess is that once the meeting is done, this bull market will continue. Smart of you to wait it out though if you don’t mind missing some of the upside these low prices are offering.

 

[Bobbyducati]

very quiet here today. nice little jump so far, wouldnt have expected this until later in the day.

 

[bdy0627]

Well, well, well, what do you know. Looks like some funds decided to reverse this ship since there is likely more money to be made at this point on a rise than on a further dip. Smart shorts are undoubtedly fueling it as well by covering.

 

[ZsoZso]

very quiet here today. nice little jump so far, wouldnt have expected this until later in the day.

I've gotten used to TSLA making moves / swings BEFORE the news that fuels them surfaces.
Maybe it is already known by certain deep pockets that the vote will be secured in favor of Musk's compensation...

 

[elasalle]

Well, well, well, what do you know. Looks like some funds decided to reverse this ship since there is likely more money to be made at this point on a rise than on a further dip. Smart shorts are undoubtedly fueling it as well by covering.

Wouldn't be surprised if it was GS itself (the other side) doing the buying

 

[bdy0627]

I've gotten used to TSLA making moves / swings BEFORE the news that fuels them surfaces.
Maybe it is already known by certain deep pockets that the vote will be secured in favor of Musk's compensation...

I agree. I also think this stock reverses both up and down without news when it gets to the end of the movement in either direction.

 

[Todd Burch]

I knew what CNBC said was stupid. I knew it!

 

[Dwdnjck]

I am going to double up on my tesla bonds today, to $200k. Yield to maturity 6.57%. I am a long retired income investor, plus tsla.

 

[DurandalAI]

I knew what CNBC said was stupid. I knew it!

If CNBC said it, you can expect it to be stupid.

 

[SteveG3]

I knew what CNBC said was stupid. I knew it!

They very likely knew it too.

It's not so much that what we so often see in the media and from analysts is "stupid" thinking, rather that people with massive megaphones are being paid to try to convince the public of "stupid" things.

(this can often happen with Tesla, or pretty much anywhere massive amounts of money are at play)