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K_Dizzle
Member
100k this year would be an absolute disaster, it would mean no meaningful improvement in production rate for the rest of the year. Why would it not be possible to improve this year, but magically improve production rate x4 as of jan 2019?
I am expecting for entire year about 190k. This assumes Tesla continuing to ramp production post hitting 5k mark. With target of 6250/week by September and 7500 by December. Tesla may be closer to 5k by June but may be few hundred car below the target. Continuing ramp throughout second half will help Tesla to produce more than 5k per week in q3. If Tesla decides to optimize existing lines for about quarter post June and then begin ramp to 10k then in that case yearly production could be around 160 to 170k.
K_Dizzle
Member
Since we’re getting an extra $7B in revenue from the 3 what the hell is SP doing at $300
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
A deep draft at low tide is a bad thing.
I guess what matters is gross profit rather than revenue. Gross profit depends on margins and with the current and near term production rates the margins are probably a far cry from the aim of ~20-25% - even when accounting for the fact that the currently sold vehicles are LR/PUP models. The SP will go higher when Tesla achieves the projected gross profit and a healthier balance sheet.
an intriguing read, since, i think, Iain M Banks "Culture novels" were an influence on Musk and thought processes
A Few Notes on the Culture, by Iain M Banks
(hey, its the weekend relaxed mode)(apologies)
A Few Notes on the Culture, by Iain M Banks
(hey, its the weekend relaxed mode)(apologies)
And this is where the wave of literary license breaks on the rocky shore of literal interpretation.
If boat height = stock price, then bottoming the boat while others are still going down is a good thing. (Better yet if the boat has a wide bottom so it doesn't tip over. Further, one hopes the bottom is sandy so the kneel does not get embedded in muck preventing the future rise with the tide)
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Okay, bullish again. Time to load up the truck. Even though we've seen evidence of the ramp taking shape in the form of invites/VIN assignments, Mr. Market is still in denial.
Invites and VIN assignments are real things, meaning Tesla isn't sending those out to manipulate the stock.
My truck is sitting on its bounce bumpers and the tires are threatening to blow. Really don't want to be near it if we hit another speed bump or rough patch, but along for the ride anyway.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
Does anyone have a good source for market cap on historical dates? I’d like to plot a market cap:revenue ratio (p/s ratio, basically) over time.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
No, but I've been following that ratio since 2012. We're quite a bit lower than historical norms
This is definitely a much better time to buy than a year ago. The unknown are Macros which could pull us down further, although I don't understand why, because nothing domestically or internationally would affect Tesla at this point. They will be production constrained, not demand constrained, for years.
You can get complete historical SP data from Yahoo finance TSLA for example.
Historical data on shares outstanding you can extract out of quarterly financial reports, same with revenue.
Historical data on shares outstanding you can extract out of quarterly financial reports, same with revenue.
gurufocus will let you plot PS ratio over time and things like share price at median PS ratio ($581.50 at 1/1/2018
).Tesla Inc Interactive Charts --GuruFocus.com
Esme Es Mejor
Member
That’s what got me interested. I looked at P/S for Nov/Dec 2016 (when SP ~ $180), and it was higher than it is now. That’s enough to know that now is a great time to buy (assuming medium-long time horizon), but I think it can be useful in the future as an indicator of when to hold & even when to trim my position.
Edit: 2016, not 2017.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
gurufocus will let you plot PS ratio over time and things like share price at median PS ratio ($581.50 at 1/1/2018
Tesla Inc Interactive Charts --GuruFocus.com
View attachment 288882
Thanks! That may be exactly what I need.
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