TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[sdtslafan]

Tesla could go down to $0 or Tesla could go to $3000. Lets say you are big institutions transpiring to manipulate the stock. Over time, you could short Tesla an help drive the price to zero. Or you could accumulated Tesla and then help it get to $3000. Which would be better for you? Where does the maximum profit lie?

During the past several weeks, institutions have been playing the PR game and hammering the stock, meanwhile accumulating while weak longs sell. This massive upheaval of negativity is no coincidence. Convince you that your shares are worthless and pick up those shares at a bargain. Eventually, they will change their tune after their accumulation and drive the stock higher. Of course, once they start to promote the stock, the stock will rise and Tesla will have no problems doing a capital raise and continuing their expansion plans. By that time, Model 3 production will be in high gear and the value of what Tesla has created will be very obvious...

We all wish we could have invested in Apple, Amazon, Netflix many years ago. Tesla has a roadmap to be just as big as any of these companies. A few billion dollars in capital needs, even 5-10 billion, is no deal breaker for a company with such growth potential. Eventually this will be obvious but right now the manipulators don't want you to believe that, not until they have your shares. Elon is telling you this is doable within the next 3 months but the market wants you to ignore him. Just press sell.

I'm no whiz at investing, but this I know in my gut.

 

[Curt Renz]

I think it was the UBS report and price target - $195

The UBS rating and price target for TSLA were unchanged today. The market apparently did not consider Barron's allowing those to be reiterated to be worthy of consideration. UBS has been perpetually bearish on TSLA, hence it was not seen by most investors as significant news.

 

[MacRocket]

So in a nutshell you´re saying that when something fairly distinct happens (like the China news, the ''6,000 target email'', etc.) we here at this forum can analyse it and understand if it´s bullish or bearish way faster than the brokers can when they service their clients?

Yes Iceman, sometimes a SP will spike straight away on news but I have observed over the years that there is often a delay between good news and SP increase.
If the news is burried in a large report it can take some people a while to catch on and some anylists are slow readers.
Not everyone follows TSLA like those on this forum and so most here would be able to react much more quickly than the big brokers.
IMO they are probably putting out recommendation now on news and views they had from 2 or 3 weeks ago.
This theory can be tested if you watch the price of stocks for a few days after announcements.

 

[Skryll]

For the short term players, I think it's a good idea to dump some shares today, I just sold 100 shs @ 297.

Thank you. Unfortunately I did not have any cash left to buy them all, last purchase was 10 @ 289.54 this morning.

 

[kenliles]

You can also see the paid bulls contributing. You all know the accounts im talking about. They are pro's making funny animated gifs and retweeting each other. I am certainly not against having someone in the fight on our side, even if they have to be paid.

Where can a bull get tweet paid and how much?
I need to make some side coin reciprocity

 

[Words of HABIT]

Why the surprise in the rise of 2.29% percent today to $300? And yes, 5.5% better than GM, 2.63% better than DOW, 2.78% better than S&P500, 2.97% better than NASDAQ. Any price under $300 is a steal. But the real reason is last night after market close I changed my house address number to Tesla font in preparation for the arrival of our M3. As Kramer would say, "Giddyup!"

 

[Duffer]

I would actually like this scenario better, a slow and steady run up like the Tencent run. I don't want to spook the shorts out of the pot too soon, let it simmer...

Similar to the tale of how to boil a frog??

Actually, I appreciate the shorts. Without them I would not have been able to purchase as many shares, as cheaply, as I have.

 

[dc_h]

It takes a day or two for brokers to analyse the news and put out recommendations to their clients

The spellchecking can add an extra day.

 

[EinSV]

The spellchecking can add an extra day.

View attachment 295370

According to the Barrons article it seems UBS may also need to do a little more homework on production:

Worse, the company’s boast of having made 2,020 Model 3 sedans in the final week of the March quarter is something of a head fake, [UBS's Colin Langan] implies.​

The production rate “is not predictive,” writes Langan. That’s because the majority of Tesla's car production in the quarter was below the “exit rate” of the prior quarter, he observes.
​

Tesla’s Profit Will Miss, Model 3 Production a Head Fake, Says UBS

Um, last three weeks were:

2020
2071
2250

Head fake?

Btw, where is Tamberrino on his estimate of 1400 Model 3/wk production after the Q1 deliveries report? Oops.

 

[MP3Mike]

Um, last three weeks were:

2020
2071
2250

Are these actually 3 separate weeks? Out do they overlap?

 

[EinSV]

Are these actually 3 separate weeks? Out do they overlap?

3 consecutive weeks:

Q1 delivery letter (2020) was Tuesday 4/3 (6 am PT) with data through Monday 4/2
CBS interview (2071) was reportedly Tuesday 4/10 with data presumably through Monday 4/9
Leaked email (2250) was Tuesday 4/17 with data through Monday 4/16

Also, Elon's leaked email says this explicitly:

First, congratulations are in order! We have now completed our third full week of producing over 2000 Model 3 vehicles. The first week was 2020, the second was 2070 and we just completed 2250 last week, along with 2000 Model S/X vehicles. Tesla Model 3 production aims for 6,000 units per week in June after upgrade in May – ~5,000 with margin of error, says Elon Musk
​

 

[Intl Professor]

Nice slow and steady march to $300. Booyah! lol

Aftermarket downward spike of -1.42%. What is going on! Real spike? fake spike?

Very low volume.

 

[neroden]

Considering the market on the whole, 300 is a pretty good spot to be in. Was 284 just 2 days ago. Of course Tesla does this all the time. The market up 2%, Tesla down.. Tesla up 2%, the market down. Its so disconnected its nutty.

TSLA has a very low correlation coefficient with the market... it's one of those "uncorrelated assets" that certain types of hedge fund and endowment managers look for . As a result "beta" is meaningles.

 

[neroden]

I'm really scratching my head short-term with this stock movement. Today was a very strong day for TSLA with a weak macro day. This came at a time when shorts were seemingly in control of the stock lately. Did they back off their efforts today? Continue to aggressively try to control the stock but lost today? Was there institutional accumulation? Was there a lot of short covering? I have no idea, nor do I have any idea what happens tomorrow. I think the cautious approach for me at this point is to simply wait and see what the stock does tomorrow morning. It should be clear if shorts are able to control the movement after the first hour or so. There may or may not be a MMD tomorrow at open. If there is the usual attempt at one, and it fails with the stock moving up strongly, I'm adding. I think I will add in tranches so as to avoid adding heavily only to have the stock dip back to the low $290s. I hate it when that happens!

FWIW, my hypothesis a while back was that there were big institutional investors (or "high net worth individuals") who would dive in and buy the stock any time it went under $300 or $280. They're not fast-moving, so they wouldn't notice until a short-induced dip had already happened, but then they'd start accumulating.

The short sellers seem to have a maximum amount of money available to deploy: it's been remarkably consistent since the end of the 2013 short-covering rally. I don't know what's limiting their supply; losses, restrictions on the rules governing the mutual funds which are shorting, something.

 

[neroden]

I will say that I'm expecting at least one more (possibly more) really big bear raid / short-seller attack attempt. I could be wrong, but I feel like they're going to find a way to do it prior to the Q3 earnings report, after which they will not be able to (at least until the stock price goes up and the new story is "Tesla can't possibly be worth $600, so short it").

 

[TradingInvest]

The spellchecking can add an extra day.

View attachment 295370

As far as I can remember, for years the UBS analyst Colin Langan has never said one sentence positive about Tesla or Elon Musk. Same for a few other bearish analysts. That tells me they have an agenda.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

According to the Barrons article it seems UBS may also need to do a little more homework on production:

Worse, the company’s boast of having made 2,020 Model 3 sedans in the final week of the March quarter is something of a head fake, [UBS's Colin Langan] implies.​

The production rate “is not predictive,” writes Langan. That’s because the majority of Tesla's car production in the quarter was below the “exit rate” of the prior quarter, he observes.
​

Tesla’s Profit Will Miss, Model 3 Production a Head Fake, Says UBS

Um, last three weeks were:

2020
2071
2250

Head fake?

Btw, where is Tamberrino on his estimate of 1400 Model 3/wk production after the Q1 deliveries report? Oops.

Tamberrino estimated 22,000 S & X deliveries in Q1. The actual number was 21,800. He estimated 9,500 M3 produced. The actual number was 9,766.

Pretty close.

 

[defc0n]

I will say that I'm expecting at least one more (possibly more) really big bear raid / short-seller attack attempt. I could be wrong, but I feel like they're going to find a way to do it prior to the Q3 earnings report, after which they will not be able to (at least until the stock price goes up and the new story is "Tesla can't possibly be worth $600, so short it").

Hmm I just foresee a lot of shorts covering leading up to Q3 earnings. Q2 earnings might be their last chance for a raid. “Tesla can’t reach 5k+/wk and still can’t make a profit making 4k/wk” or something.

Or, even if Tesla is profitable in Q3, their argument thereafter will still be valuation. And to me, that’s their best argument and one I struggle with. Tesla is extremely hard for me to value, not knowing what they will and will not execute on in the future in a reasonable timeframe.

Either way, I think the psychology of the overall market for at least some period of time will be “Tesla was $380 when they were losing money and not making model 3 and now they are profitable, so now they must be worth more!”

I have no idea how high the next runup can go, but if I jump back in soon, I’ll look for just north of $400 later this year / early next. Then I’ll likely be getting out of equities entirely for awhile until we are in the midst of the next recession.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Hmm I just foresee a lot of shorts covering leading up to Q3 earnings. Q2 earnings might be their last chance for a raid. “Tesla can’t reach 5k+/wk and still can’t make a profit making 4k/wk” or something.

Or, even if Tesla is profitable in Q3, their argument thereafter will still be valuation. And to me, that’s their best argument and one I struggle with. Tesla is extremely hard for me to value, not knowing what they will and will not execute on in the future in a reasonable timeframe.

Either way, I think the psychology of the overall market for at least some period of time will be “Tesla was $380 when they were losing money and not making model 3 and now they are profitable, so now they must be worth more!”

I have no idea how high the next runup can go, but if I jump back in soon, I’ll look for just north of $400 later this year / early next. Then I’ll likely be getting out of equities entirely for awhile until we are in the midst of the next recession.

I can see Tesla achieving positive cashflow for one quarter, but profitability? Not in this lifetime.

 

[sdtslafan]

Tamberrino estimated 22,000 S & X deliveries in Q1. The actual number was 21,800. He estimated 9,500 M3 produced. The actual number was 9,766.

Pretty close.

Strange that he did such a good job estimating delivery numbers yet has such a poor understanding of what the company has already accomplished, it's competitive advantages over other companies which will only grow with time, as well as the vast potential which will become more and more obvious as the days go by.

But I don't listen to Tamberrino so...in the words of Elon...don't care