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dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Define "all in".
My 3 self-directed brokerage accounts are 100% TSLA.
That is one I had forgotten (although I am not sure that I find it dispositive).
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Simple. Capital raises and eventually operating income.
For bears to succeed. You will need to prevent Tesla from being able to do capital raises within the next 2 years before they reach operating income parity. For that to happen, you will need to take out the confidence of those long term investors who has been in TSLA for 5+ years. Mainly the small # of institutional investors who hold the majority of shares, but more likely the cult followers who don't buy bear's bullshit. As the institutions are keeping an ear on the sentiment and the sentiment is driven by how many people "believe".
So far, most of the ways the bears attack TSLA cultist's confidence has been wrong as they use methods that just divides opinion and pisses off the cultists. Thus entrenching the TSLA cultist's position.
But you guys better come up with one quick as time is running out. In any event, the business case for EV has been made already and the landscape will change no matter TESLA succeed or not. TESLA shareholders PAID for all the other automobile manufacturers to prove that EV business model works. They better thank us.
No you’re not. You’ve gotten answers and then ignored them.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
K_Dizzle
Member
I agree capital raises are the only hope. So far Elon's raised $9 billion for Tesla and only lost about $5 billion of it - if he can keep doing it Tesla may survive. But I think the underwriters are getting nervous.
Off Shore
Off Topic Member
Now we're arguing with trolls. Can we go back to telling how many M3s we've seen?
Hell, I’ll give it a try. Let’s talk about valuation, and let’s talk about what companies might be willing to pay for TSLA today as we speak. In the end, the only price tag that really matters is the one that someone(s) are willing to pay.
In what I consider to be a near worst case scenario, I value Tesla to be the following:
- $20 billion for auto/semi EV tech
- $15 billion for autopilot tech
- $5 billion for all of Tesla Energy
If my maths are correct, that would yield a SP today of about $236. And again, that’s what I believe to now be essentially a rock bottom price.
Valuating Tesla’s future is much more difficult for me as I’ve mentioned before, and let’s say much more open to creative interpretation
Assuming a strong Q3&Q4, I’m still looking for a SP of about $420.For someone that may be interested in shorting the stock at this point, the potential upside of that trade just doesn’t make sense to me.
I think you've forgotten the $25 billion of liabilities. Once we put those in, you get a share price of about $90-100, which seems more reasonable than now.Hell, I’ll give it a try. Let’s talk about valuation, and let’s talk about what companies might be willing to pay for TSLA today as we speak. In the end, the only price tag that really matters is the one that someone(s) are willing to pay.
In what I consider to be a near worst case scenario, I value Tesla to be the following:
- $20 billion for auto/semi EV tech
- $15 billion for autopilot tech
- $5 billion for all of Tesla Energy
If my maths are correct, that would yield a SP today of about $236. And again, that’s what I believe to now be esssentially a rock bottom price.
Valuating Tesla’s future is much more difficult for me as I’ve mentioned before, and let’s say much more open to creative interpretation
For someone that may be interested in shorting the stock at this point, the potential upside of that trade just doesn’t make sense to me.
I have my entire retirement, plus $10k non-retirement account. So I'm all in.
My wife owns $0.00 TSLA by design. If it fails, she's my fallback. That would not be a pleasant experience, but at least there's something to fall back on.
I am a long time Tesla bull but there is no way I would go all in. That applies to any individual investment...be it stock, bonds, real estate, or cryptocurrency.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
So if you agree TSLA is worth $100 a share in a complete fire sale, you don't think its worth at least triple that as a going concern likely to grow revenue at 100% this year, and averaging 50% a year?
I think the main divide is that bears don't think Tesla will ever be profitable, whereas bulls recognize the cost of growth in this capital intensive business, and the moat that capital investment creates.
Tesla has been building attractive EV's for around 9 years, and no one makes a comparable vehicle in any segment Tesla competes in. 9 years and no competition! When will the competition arrive? It's not looking like anytime soon.
That is building a lead that will be hard to take down.
Profits will come when growth slows. Not likely for quite some time... I would guess another 2 - 3 years. Positive cashflow hopefully within a year from now. (I'm attempting to be conservative)
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