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TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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We (or at least I) are looking for evidence or arguments against our thesis. If you only listen to people who agree with you, you don't learn anything.

once again

[snip]

I'd contend that anyone taking your contention as intellectually honest is mistaken, and, so, attempting to engage in a fact and reason back and forth with you on this currently is a poor use of time.

In this instance though, I'll point out that the fact that there are so many people working so feverishly to present an unflattering portrait of Tesla, and yet nearly everything they have to show for that effort is either outright intellectual falsehoods, or the twisted warped presentation of actual events to the point of being meaningless gibberish, is quite a bullish sign.
 
I agree capital raises are the only hope. So far Elon's raised $9 billion for Tesla and only lost about $5 billion of it - if he can keep doing it Tesla may survive. But I think the underwriters are getting nervous.

The 5 billion translated into assets. Plants and equipments, IP. R&D etc. Read under asset line of the balance sheet. Since we are using "thinking". I think the only hope is operating cost parity.
 
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Is anyone here all in Tesla?
Not right now. I've been there in the past, as recently as a couple of weeks ago. When it's down 20%+, I generally sell other stocks and shift almost entirely into it. It's still my largest holding at this point, but only one of about 15 stocks. I've tried going with a smaller general allocation to TSLA but I always end up increasing it. When I have been all in, or nearly all in, in the past when it's not in a dip, I have generally regretted it. I would have achieved a better return had I been more diversified.
 
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$23.022 billion as of 12/31/17 (likely a little larger now).

Cash on hand and total assets should be taken into account too. I’m mostly just considering IP in those valuations. And if the company is able to turn a profit...

If Tesla shows profitability later this year, which I expect them to (particularly in Q4), then I still believe those valuations make sense, particularly for competitors that would love to not have to compete against Tesla.

If Tesla struggles to show profitability this year with a ramped model 3, I agree the SP should take a huge hit.

I expect we would at least agree that the valuation mostly rests on what happens this year with the model 3 ramp and it’s margins.
 
Did you drive the effin' car yet? If you did, you wouldn't need any more evidence.

And that is exactly the litmus test. I had to switch from windows/linux laptops to a macbook to understand why apple was worth much more in the near future, just the iphone alone didnt even convince me back then. But I still made significant profit from it and paid for all apple devices with stock gains and diversified into other stocks, too.

Now tesla is at a similar juncture, we have owned a Model X since May 2016, now in January I got my Model 3. It is absolutely amazing to drive, and with every software update it gets better. They added chill mode in the last one, which may help as a marriage insurance when the wife is in the passenger seat, but I don't normally use it. But it feels like even the normal sporty driving dynamics have improved, or maybe I am just getting more and more used to the kinetics of the car.

Having transitioned to electric driving, and never going to gas stations, oil change and smog check appointments again, just plugging in at night and full in the morning, the immense controlled power that unleashed leaves every gas car behind at the light turning green, it significantly shifts your perspective.

It is like I realized I left a very ugly past behind. And then I walk across a parking lot, and notice the oil stains all over the place and am appalled and wonder how we let it go that far. If somebody leaked oil into a street deliberately, we would be upset already because one drop of oil spoils that much ground water, but for legacy gas cars, we ignore it, because, thats what they do, its just the way it is. But now it no longer has to be that way.

This is the part you are missing. I would never go back to a gas car, not a Porsche and not a Ferrari and not a Mustang and not a VW CC or Audi R8. I would never give this up again, just like I never would trade my smartphone for a landline again, may it be cheaper, need less charging, less reboots, but its just not going to happen.
 
Cash on hand and total assets should be taken into account too. I’m mostly just considering IP in those valuations. And if the company is able to turn a profit...

If Tesla shows profitability later this year, which I expect them to (particularly in Q4), then I still believe those valuations make sense, particularly for competitors that would love to not have to compete against Tesla.

If Tesla struggles to show profitability this year with a ramped model 3, I agree the SP should take a huge hit.

I expect we would at least agree that the valuation mostly rests on what happens this year with the model 3 ramp and it’s margins.

Can anyone smarter than me estimate the extra revenue M3 will produce and how much more debt obligations TSLA can afford based on that income?
 
once again

I agree with SteveG3.
There is so much negative bear noise at the moment that TSLA must be very close to a bottom. Only one way to go from here. Watch out bears!

In this instance though, I'll point out that the fact that there are so many people working so feverishly to present an unflattering portrait of Tesla, and yet nearly everything they have to show for that effort is either outright intellectual falsehoods, or the twisted warped presentation of actual events to the point of being meaningless gibberish, is quite a bullish sign.
 
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Dude: "The Ford Motor Company, headquartered in Michigan, is one of the biggest car manufacturers worldwide. In the fiscal year of 2017, Ford reported total debt of about 154 billion US dollars."

What say you?
The best place to get these numbers is the 10-k filed with the SEC. As of 12/31/17, Ford's liabilities were about $222 billion, so more than 9 times Tesla's. However, Ford's revenues were about 12 times Tesla's. Ford had a profit of $7.6 billion (Tesla lost $2 billion) and (most crucially from a credit perspective) $18 million of working capital (Tesla is negative $1.2 billion).
 
Can anyone smarter than me estimate the extra revenue M3 will produce and how much more debt obligations TSLA can afford based on that income?
If Tesla delivers 100,000 S&X this year at an ASP of $90,000, and 200,000 M3 (I know it's optimistic) at an ASP of $45,000, that will give about $18 billion (as compared to about $9.6 bn in 2017, ignoring for now the effect of leasing). But the borrowing capacity is not affected by revenues. It depends on income, or, for a company in Tesla's state, on cashflow.

The likely cashflow generation is best summarized by Moodys, who downgraded Tesla unsecured debt to Caa1 (negative) and its liquidity position to SGL-4 (the lowest possible grade), while estimating that Tesla will need a cash infusion of $2 billion over the net 12 months and a further infusion in the second half of 2019.
 
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I’m ALL IN! (A little Netflix left. Not much). Sold off all misc. holdings (FB, googl, Netflix, Apple) as they’ve all doubled in 2016 ans 2017 so plenty of room to fall.

I add to tsla often when below $300. Almost at 1K shares.

I’ve owned some since $30 and solar city has made me an even bigger Tesla head.

It will either make an epic story or AN EPIC STORY!
 
I’m inching closer and closer to “all-in” as I keep adding shares like today, with the exception of my small AAPL shares that I plan to hold as long as possible.

Normally I’d be nervous with my nearly all in situation but after driving from LA to San Diego today in my S and seeing more Tesla’s on the freeway than I think I’ve ever seen (including 5 model 3’s), then driving my dad’s model 3 once I arrived, I’m feeling pretty positive about $TSLA’s future.
 
I only own AAPL and TSLA stock. Getting closer to evenly distributed as I add more TSLA on the dips. I still feel AAPL has a lot of room to grow as it has been under-valued for at least the past decade (mostly looking at P/E and P/S compared to other tech companies), but I see more future upside in TSLA while AAPL has less risk. I also see a lot of parallels between where Tesla is now compared to Apple 7-15 years ago, how the media covers it and how easily it is to manipulate the stock price with unfounded rumours and speculation.
 
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