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As we continue to focus on quality and efficiency rather than simply pushing for the highest possible volume in the shortest period of time, we expect to have a slightly more gradual ramp through Q1, likely ending the quarter at a weekly rate of about 2,500 Model 3 vehicles. We intend to achieve the 5,000 per week milestone by the end of Q2. This is not going to end well
mickificki
Member
on the one hand it is a further delay, on the other hand, the bear thesis was that Tesla would not hit volume production period. look for new narratives/goal post moving (probably hammering, “wow, they must really need cash now, but at the worst time... what awful terms it would take” rubbish), but with a long term view none of that matters. what’s more, pretty clear Tesla will hit 200K US deliveries until Q2, which means larger tax credits for more people.
I'm surprised that it's not down a lot more in after hours - I would have thought that slipping the 5000/week goal to Q2 would be a bigger deal for the market.
I suppose the big question is: how will this affect Model 3 margin and particularly cash flow this quarter?
I suppose the big question is: how will this affect Model 3 margin and particularly cash flow this quarter?
dc_h
Active Member
I think this is about what we should have expected, both in Tesla results and projections, as well as the market response. I can see this whipsawing with a big down push and possible a bounce, or not.
2500 end of Q1 and about 1000 a week now translates to about 20,000 cars in Q1 and 40,000 to 50,000 in Q2. Assuming S/X sales can be maintained (production may be a resource challenge), hopefully they are close to cash flow even for Q1 and positive in Q2.
Interested if there is consensus on required 3 production to reach positive cash flow.
2500 end of Q1 and about 1000 a week now translates to about 20,000 cars in Q1 and 40,000 to 50,000 in Q2. Assuming S/X sales can be maintained (production may be a resource challenge), hopefully they are close to cash flow even for Q1 and positive in Q2.
Interested if there is consensus on required 3 production to reach positive cash flow.
probably without anyone pointing out his thesis is that they can’t produce the car, not that it’s taking a few months longer to hit full production.
would love to see him in a sit down interview with Curt, lols.
I think quite a lot of long tsla were(still?) thinking that even 5000/wk by end of the year 2018 would be good so ....
zmarty
Member
"in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week."
Very interesting wording. Here is my translation:
Very interesting wording. Here is my translation:
- We did not actually hit 1K cars per week (note the word "extrapolates")
- We did not hit it in 2017 (note "in the last few days")
With the holidays, I don't think they had a full work week. I think that is all it means.
I have to say, that although we are right about Tesla in general, we seem to always be overly optimistic on the production numbers. Not that it is completely our fault. Elon let us down. I can forgive the original 5,000/week by end of 2017, much more than I can forgive the new 5,000/week by July. My retirement party just got pushed back 6-12 months....
You left out part of that sentence that makes it very clear: "In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 793 Model 3's, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3's per week."
So they didn't make 1,000 in the last week, but in that last week they increased the production rate such that the next week period will be over 1,000. (Meaning they are now making more than 143 Model 3s per day.)
With the current ramp results.
Starting from 1000 model 3 cars this week up to a flatline 5000/week production rate starting from 'H2, is Tesla expecting to produce 205000 model 3 cars in 2018 total? Lets assume they can squeeze another 10% extra model S and modelX production, Tesla should be able to produce a good 300000 cars this year?
Starting from 1000 model 3 cars this week up to a flatline 5000/week production rate starting from 'H2, is Tesla expecting to produce 205000 model 3 cars in 2018 total? Lets assume they can squeeze another 10% extra model S and modelX production, Tesla should be able to produce a good 300000 cars this year?
dc_h
Active Member
That would be about 22 billion in revenue plus any TE revenue. 12 billion model 3 at 60k avg selling price and about 10 billion S/X.
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