There are never guarantees when talking about war or predicting the stock market, especially on a day by day basis. As with anything there are contingent factors (the recent MX crash or assassination of the Arch Duke Ferdinand setting off a cascade of events leading to WWI) or structural factors (like the rigidity of Bismarck's alliance system), or better, a hybrid like that system without Bismarck around to manage it.
Some contingent factors include the Trump effect, the Putin effect, and whether some structural changes, including technology are helpful or hurtful. BFO!
The current hotspots include Iran, Korea, Syria, ISIS/Daesh, climate change, and cyberwar, because in a way the Russian influence on our system is profound and not over. I don't know of anyone except perhaps John Bolton (who has been on the job, formally, for only three days) wants war of any kind. Unfortunately a shooting world war three is thinkable but not deadly for everyone unless nuclear weapons are used. Also unfortunate is that no one can predict that nuclear weapons won't be used, or won't be used by accident. There are many cases when an initial nuclear exchange was stopped by a patriot on the Russian side—don't remember that scenario—or by a known drunk, Yel'tsin. His military mistakenly advised him a US nuclear attack was imminent even though the weather satellite test in Norway—which they had been alerted about weeks in advance and then near to the event!!—was the real cause of the alarm.
So in other world lines WWIII has already happened, not ours, yet.
I know the NRA won't like this, but some weapons should always be kept out of human hands. That is why it has been suggested as a stop gap measure, the President's nuclear football should be activated only after killing the guy with the key mounted internally near the heart of the bearer with a sword or scalpel carried with him at all times. Mind you, the president must be the one who performs the execution.
Let me give a homely example. Perhaps a 17 year-old should not be permitted to buy an assault rifle, let alone give a single man the power to wage nuclear war. Anyone who would want that job should be declared insane ipso facto because an urge to such power makes them ineligible to hold the office. But I digress.
The Trump Effect
The ghost of Nixon who invented the mad-man theory of the presidency may be alive today, we don't know. [See details above.] His presidency caused our military to take the extraordinary step of collaboration to remove him from office or at least control any unwanted military action. There was a rumor that Tillerson, McMaster, Mattis and Kelly had pledged all to resign should any one be fired by Trump. That hasn't happened. Mattis is the only one standing and Kelly has been neutered or will be replaced (by Mulvaney?), any time. Our military is schooled to refuse unlawful orders. No wonder in its infinite wisdom Congress changed our motto from e pluribus unum (which might be useful now) to "In God We Trust."
Cooling Trump, Advantage China
This thread is divided on whether Trump's tweets and bluster are to be taken seriously or that their worst sound is really only a negotiating first step. I was frightened by his approach to Korea but have admitted, see above, he may have stimulated President Xi to more overtly take advantage of America's decision to abdicate world leadership. That President has schooled Kim, thus smoothing the way toward reconciliation between North and South, is consistent with Moon's campaign. The U.S. can join in, or not; I think this crisis is over or soon will be.
President Xi has also masterfully taken charge of Trump's tariff tantrum and steered it, hopefully, into the normal diplomatic channels. Structurally, as far as China is concerned, there are ways to both flatter Trump, as do his supporters here, and yet achieve mutually acceptable results.
The Putin Effect and the Middle East, Advantage Russia
[Gotto go, the dinner bell is ringing. More later, unless you're already asleep.]
Notes:
Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria - Wikipedia
How has Bismarck escaped most of the blame for the first world war?
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