Market politics

[wdolson]

Yeah. I actually support intelligently targeted tariffs. But Trump doesn't understand tariffs at all, so he's doing them completely and utterly wrong and he's just hurting the US.

The retaliatory tariffs from Canada, Mexico, the EU, and China were all *exquisitely* well targeted, to help their domestic industries while hurting *Trump-voting* parts of the US (and not Democratic-voting parts!).

Trump's tariffs, by contrast, are idiotic and only hurt the US.

Most of the pundits are predicting Iowa will be an easy win for Trump in 2020 and Jodi Ernst is predicted to have an easy time getting re-elected, but in 2018 the state went from a Congressional delegation of 3 Republicans and 1 Democrat to 3 Dems and 1 GOP and Steve King had a squeaker getting only 50.3% of the vote when in 2016 he got over 61%.

The trade war has hit Iowa hard and while there are still Trump supporters there, but he's lost enough support to put the state in play at minimum.

I know the actions any administration does takes a while to percolate into the economy. Obama's economy has held on longer than I expected though. Especially with all the things Trump is doing wrong. When his impacts do hit the economy, it could be worse than GW Bush's impact and the entire world's banking sector almost imploded on his watch.

 

[JRP3]

That's the sad part, people credit the current administration with the current economy. Obama was blamed for the crappy Bush economy he inherited and Trump is credited with the improved economy he inherited from Obama.

 

[oneday]

That's the sad part, people credit the current administration with the current economy. Obama was blamed for the crappy Bush economy he inherited and Trump is credited with the improved economy he inherited from Obama.

Everything bad is your fault and everything good is thanks to me. I’d say this is used on both sides but far more skillfully from Fox News, Trump et al.

 

[JRP3]

Everything bad is your fault and everything good is thanks to me. I’d say this is used on both sides but far more skillfully from Fox News, Trump et al.

Not sure if it's more skillfully or just a less discriminating audience.

 

[Nocturnal]

That's the sad part, people credit the current administration with the current economy. Obama was blamed for the crappy Bush economy he inherited and Trump is credited with the improved economy he inherited from Obama.

Anyone who thinks that the President really drives the economy is kinda nuts anyway. Maybe some credit can be taken for pushing through a tax cut (of course ignoring the long term repercussions) and some blame can be made for idiotic trade wars, but all in all the economy is driven by much larger forces and business cycles.

 

[wdolson]

The president can contribute to some failures in the economy, but they have less impact on positive things in the economy than most people are willing to admit. And anything they do usually has a year or more delay before impacting the economy.

 

[bhtooefr]

it absolutely amazes me that I have heard how Trump is causing a "constitutional crisis" over and over again for the last year. However, as we approach the next election, I hear the other side preaching to eliminate the electoral college system, abolish the senate, and pack the supreme court. So if you lose the game, change the rules. Sorry, but no. Things that have worked for a couple centuries don't need to be changed, this is the constitutional crisis! Please stop trying to rip apart our country because you lost an election.

Trump is causing constitutional crises because he's arguably violating the constitution.

Changing the Constitution, OTOH, is perfectly acceptable, and legal within both the letter and spirit of the Constitution, although it's intentionally difficult. (This would be required to abolish the Senate. Before the 17th Amendment, there would be a route for states to do it through interstate compact, but in an incredibly janky manner (through directing their Senators to always vote with the House), and without addressing the Senate's responsibilities regarding Presidential appointments.)

Additionally, the Electoral College system can be effectively abolished by an interstate compact (although it would still exist in name, and a state withdrawing from the compact could restore it), also acceptable. Supreme Court packing, while going against political norms, is also acceptable under the Constitution (Congress need only authorize it).

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - tonight: Trump: China 'broke the deal' in trade talks

Chris Rupkey, managing director and chief financial economist at global financial group MUFG, wrote in a note responding to Trump's Wednesday evening speech that markets may continue to be roiled by that sort of rhetoric: "We are not sure who the president is addressing tonight in a campaign rally, but he is sure scaring the daylights out of the financial markets."

 

[lolachampcar]

Watching Barr continue, and even escalate, Trump's obstruction of justice instincts makes me wonder just how far Thump will go as he disposes of ever more of the guard rails that refused to commit crimes for him so far. The Senate acting in fear of a primary challenge is no better. I'm sure they are justifying their silence by saying they need to stay around in case something really crazy happens but all they are doing is enabling this train wreck.

I understand that most here defend the democrats as the "good guys". Hopefully there is enough self reflection to acknowledge that Barr is not the first AG to be held in contempt (if the floor vote goes as expected) and Trump was not the first President to commit perjury. This really is an ever increasing crap storm and it will only accelerate if left unattended.

 

[JRP3]

I understand that most here defend the democrats as the "good guys". Hopefully there is enough self reflection to acknowledge that Barr is not the first AG to be held in contempt (if the floor vote goes as expected) and Trump was not the first President to commit perjury.

That's just as irrelevant as the fact that the Democrats once supported slavery. We need to deal with the here and now.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Watching Barr continue, and even escalate, Trump's obstruction of justice instincts makes me wonder just how far Thump will go as he disposes of ever more of the guard rails that refused to commit crimes for him so far. The Senate acting in fear of a primary challenge is no better. I'm sure they are justifying their silence by saying they need to stay around in case something really crazy happens but all they are doing is enabling this train wreck.

I understand that most here defend the democrats as the "good guys". Hopefully there is enough self reflection to acknowledge that Barr is not the first AG to be held in contempt (if the floor vote goes as expected) and Trump was not the first President to commit perjury. This really is an ever increasing crap storm and it will only accelerate if left unattended.

Your second paragraph is analogous to comparing bank robbers to teenagers shop lifting candy bars, and saying bank robbers shouldn't be judged harshly because after all shoplifters are also guilty of theft.

Barr is the first AG to misrepresent a 2 year investigation into a President who knew a foreign enemy was trying to subvert our election and was fine with it, then repeated obstructed justice to close down the investigation. The first AG to refuse to appear before Congress and defend a President who refuses to accept Congress's constitutional right to oversee and investigate the Executive branch. Also the first to work towards letting a president set himself above the rule of law. Arguing that the President has the power to fire a special prosecutor if he believes the charges being investigated are false. The Dems are fighting this attempt to destroy democratic norms. So yes, in the current context they are the "good guys".

 

[Intl Professor]

Much too early to handicap the primary results for the Dems but Nate Silver tries it again.

Silver Bulletpoints: The 4 Meta-Messages Of The 2020 Campaign

Of some interest is how the polls are doing by each candidate in which states, for the political junky.

Meanwhile, more important to the outcome is the possibility of war, not just the war on Congress as well noted here in discussion, but the most likely IM view with Iran since Boulton seems to have been unleashed. It probably won't be deliberate, but accidents do happen cf. Sarajevo in 1914. Meanwhile one must remember how Johnson/McNamara maneuvered the Gulf of Tonkin incident. We now have tapes showing how well a competent president can make history. Going forward we can count on bumbling our way into war this time. How? One step at a time, sticking our forces into harms way while throwing excrement at the other monkey in this cage called the Persian Gulf for a reason. (No pun intended. And, of course, not an advice.)

Meanwhile, we can take the temperature of the panic in the White House in the number of targets simultaneously selected for opprobrium by he who has codes for the football.

That is the constitutional crisis we are in and the game is unstable with many opportunities for a real cluster- intercourse-elevation.

One must remember the people of Iran were aghast and widely demonstrated in favor of the US after 9-11 while their government cooperated greatly in our pursuit of Bin Laden in Afghanistan until the shift toward war with Iraq. Meanwhile Bush II solicitously arranged exception to the no fly order for the Saudis while most of the 9-11 perps were Saudi.

Combined with Eisenhower supporting the CIA/MI6 coup against the democratically elected, and secular government in Iran to elevate the pliable monarchy under the Shah, one begins to wonder where all these screw ball ideas about US foreign policy emanate. Believers will just say "It's the devil's work." But the late Paul Erdős once said, "The Russians invented TV to destroy U.S. education." Our contemporary leaders are unlike the founders, who had the steadying knowledge they worked in a complex and dangerous world with little power to influence it. Weakness makes one aware of consequences. Power breeds arrogance which is compounded by ignorance and always leads humpty dumbties to fall. Cf. Johnson's attempt at reelection. The question is, as always, how many others will be taken down that slippery slope.

Score 1 against Barr. Next at bat, Adam Schiff. Another strike for his impeachment and an additional two for obstruction of justice by the Big Humpty.

 

[alloverx]

Barr did appear before the Senate.

 

[lolachampcar]

Your second paragraph is analogous to comparing bank robbers to teenagers shop lifting candy bars, and saying bank robbers shouldn't be judged harshly because after all shoplifters are also guilty of theft.

Barr is the first AG to misrepresent a 2 year investigation into a President who knew a foreign enemy was trying to subvert our election and was fine with it, then repeated obstructed justice to close down the investigation. The first AG to refuse to appear before Congress and defend a President who refuses to accept Congress's constitutional right to oversee and investigate the Executive branch. Also the first to work towards letting a president set himself above the rule of law. Arguing that the President has the power to fire a special prosecutor if he believes the charges being investigated are false. The Dems are fighting this attempt to destroy democratic norms. So yes, in the current context they are the "good guys".

May I suggest you read what I posted in a slightly different light.

Let's say, just for a minute, that I am not defending the indefensible and that people on the Liberal and Conservative sides of the political divide are decent Americans.

Is it possible that, when we let a president sell weapons to criminals to fund an activity specifically de-funded by congress and then not hold him accountable that we open the door to ever more egregious behavior?

Or, when we allow the wife of a president to destroy the lives of women that credibly accuse her husband of sexual harassment (and worse) to continue in the body politic that we open the door to ever more destructive behavior (sometimes by the person we have allowed to hang around)?

Trump is a symptom. Waste all the time and energy you want eliminating the symptom but the problem still exists and will continue to accelerate in the wrong direction.

What are we doing wrong that these are the only people we have to choose from? Why are our hiring practices attracting such ever increasingly unacceptable people?

You disagree with me on a political issue and you have my respect. You support criminals and liars just because they are your criminals and liars you do not.

 

[lolachampcar]

Barr did appear before the Senate.

That would be Mitch's time to move on Senate. Oh, and how did that testimony go?

 

[lolachampcar]

Much too early to handicap the primary results for the Dems but Nate Silver tries it again.

Silver Bulletpoints: The 4 Meta-Messages Of The 2020 Campaign

Of some interest is how the polls are doing by each candidate in which states, for the political junky.

Meanwhile, more important to the outcome is the possibility of war, not just the war on Congress as well noted here in discussion, but the most likely IM view with Iran since Boulton seems to have been unleashed. It probably won't be deliberate, but accidents do happen cf. Sarajevo in 1914. Meanwhile one must remember how Johnson/McNamara maneuvered the Gulf of Tonkin incident. We now have tapes showing how well a competent president can make history. Going forward we can count on bumbling our way into war this time. How? One step at a time, sticking our forces into harms way while throwing excrement at the other monkey in this cage called the Persian Gulf for a reason. (No pun intended. And, of course, not an advice.)

Meanwhile, we can take the temperature of the panic in the White House in the number of targets simultaneously selected for opprobrium by he who has codes for the football.

That is the constitutional crisis we are in and the game is unstable with many opportunities for a real cluster- intercourse-elevation.

One must remember the people of Iran were aghast and widely demonstrated in favor of the US after 9-11 while their government cooperated greatly in our pursuit of Bin Laden in Afghanistan until the shift toward war with Iraq. Meanwhile Bush II solicitously arranged exception to the no fly order for the Saudis while most of the 9-11 perps were Saudi.

Combined with Eisenhower supporting the CIA/MI6 coup against the democratically elected, and secular government in Iran to elevate the pliable monarchy under the Shah, one begins to wonder where all these screw ball ideas about US foreign policy emanate. Believers will just say "It's the devil's work." But the late Paul Erdős once said, "The Russians invented TV to destroy U.S. education." Our contemporary leaders are unlike the founders, who had the steadying knowledge they worked in a complex and dangerous world with little power to influence it. Weakness makes one aware of consequences. Power breeds arrogance which is compounded by ignorance and always leads humpty dumbties to fall. Cf. Johnson's attempt at reelection. The question is, as always, how many others will be taken down that slippery slope.

Score 1 against Barr. Next at bat, Adam Schiff. Another strike for his impeachment and an additional two for obstruction of justice by the Big Humpty.

BASSEM YOUSSEF: Are you listening to yourself? Let it go! Seriously, you can't let it go. America is like a dog with a hot spot on its butt called the middle east. You think you have to keep licking it, but you are just making it worse...

[Youssef produces a plastic cone collar for dogs.]

JON STEWART: Are you saying? Oh no not the cone!

BASSEM YOUSSEF: America needs the cone, yes!


I kinda gotta agree with this

The rest of the interview here for anyone interested.
"Egypt's Jon Stewart" Bassem Youssef On What America Should Do In The Mideast: "How About Nothing?"

Now ply Trump with the option to distract from his actual business acumen, tax returns and the Mueller Report and we just very well may be headed towards more lives lost (ours and theirs) and more money spent. Given this is an investment related political thread, time to buy stock in the US Military Industrial Complex.

 

[Intl Professor]

Or bridge builders in SF once the Fed orders banks to move to higher ground.

 

[wdolson]

Watching Barr continue, and even escalate, Trump's obstruction of justice instincts makes me wonder just how far Thump will go as he disposes of ever more of the guard rails that refused to commit crimes for him so far. The Senate acting in fear of a primary challenge is no better. I'm sure they are justifying their silence by saying they need to stay around in case something really crazy happens but all they are doing is enabling this train wreck.

I understand that most here defend the democrats as the "good guys". Hopefully there is enough self reflection to acknowledge that Barr is not the first AG to be held in contempt (if the floor vote goes as expected) and Trump was not the first President to commit perjury. This really is an ever increasing crap storm and it will only accelerate if left unattended.

The only president to ever testify under oath was Bill Clinton. It's a little known fact, but the judge was asked to define "sexual relations" before the deposition and Clinton answered truthfully within the definition the judge gave. So he did not technically commit perjury. He was impeached for it, but criminal charges were never brought.

As for obstruction of justice, I'm sure a case can be made that several presidents have broken those laws, and at least skirted the line pretty hard, including Clinton and Obama. The only one who clearly crossed the line before Trump was Nixon.

As for corruption of administrations, from 1963 to early 2017: 89 Republicans working for the president have been convicted and 1 Democrat has been convicted. That was a peripheral figure in the Kenneth Starr investigation who got popped for perjury. That doesn't count the large number of Iran-Contra people who were facing convictions until George HW Bush pardoned the lot.

Our score so far: Republicans 89, Democrats 1

The linked Wikipedia page has all the details. The article came out before Trump's people started going down. Up until late last year, the Trump administration had 89 indictment and 24 convictions.

Many years ago Democrats did do some dastardly things, and there are Democrats on the state level who have gone down in recent years. A couple of governors of Illinois and several people in the state legislature in New York are among the perps. But the Republicans have been far dirtier in their politics and their criminal activity over the last 50 years.

Another factor is hypocrisy. It's far more common for Republicans to claim one thing and do another than Democrats are. The latest scandal this week is Jerry Falwell Jr's weird situation with a pool boy in Miami. For every story of hypocrisy by a Democrat, I could probably name 50 Republican hypocrites within a few minutes.

BASSEM YOUSSEF: Are you listening to yourself? Let it go! Seriously, you can't let it go. America is like a dog with a hot spot on its butt called the middle east. You think you have to keep licking it, but you are just making it worse...

[Youssef produces a plastic cone collar for dogs.]

JON STEWART: Are you saying? Oh no not the cone!

BASSEM YOUSSEF: America needs the cone, yes!


I kinda gotta agree with this

The rest of the interview here for anyone interested.
"Egypt's Jon Stewart" Bassem Youssef On What America Should Do In The Mideast: "How About Nothing?"

Now ply Trump with the option to distract from his actual business acumen, tax returns and the Mueller Report and we just very well may be headed towards more lives lost (ours and theirs) and more money spent. Given this is an investment related political thread, time to buy stock in the US Military Industrial Complex.

This if Bolton's wet dream. Being a malignant narcissist Trump really doesn't want to go to war. The news has to be about him and war news tends to be more about the war than about the president. He doesn't want to get upstaged by some real hero who does something deserving the Medal of Honor or something.

Bolton was appointed as a political favor to Sheldon Adelson.

The news is over playing the situation though. The US has had a carrier stationed near the Persian Gulf almost constantly for the last 60 years. The Stennis has been on station near the Gulf for the last few months and its headed home now. It passed Gibraltar on the 3rd. The Lincoln wasn't on station yet when the Stennis left. It's very rare for a carrier to leave a critical station without relief already there, but it happened this time.

One reason is almost the entire fleet is down for maintenance. This site is a few months out of date, but shows only 4 carriers operational, 6 in maintenance and training and the Ford is still being fitted out.
Where are the Carriers?

The Washington is unavailable until 2021 because she is being refueled according to this site which is more current.
CV Locations

In addition to the key assets of the Navy out of operation, the Army is having a tough time recruiting. They have failed to meet recruiting goals several times over the last few years. It really hasn't recovered from the Iraq War last decade. The Army is mostly a spent force only capable of limited operations. The Air Force is in decent shape and could be called on for air strikes, but that's about the extent of what the US can do right now.

This administration is dumb enough to go to war with the current state of the military, but if they did, it would be a disaster. The Iranians specifically have been preparing to counter all of the US's strengths if they did have to go to war with the US. Their Navy has many hundreds of missile boats with one launcher per boat. They have a large number of anti-shipping missiles provided by China and Russia, including a handful of the latest Chinese anti-ship missiles designed to defeat American anti-missile defense systems. The plan is in the event of war with the US, they would swarm a US carrier task force with hundreds of these boats. The sheer number would be impossible to stop and some would get into firing position. They hope to score a few hits and possibly sink a US carrier. That's not only a huge loss for the US, but it's an environmental problem as a large nuclear reactor with possible damage would be on the sea floor.

The Iranians have also established probably the densest anti-aircraft installations in the world around their most critical facilities. Any air strikes would be very costly.

Back in 2003 I called out the Iraq War as the dumbest strategic mistake the US had ever made. Going to war with Iran, especially now would be an order of magnitude more stupid.

 

[K3jSe7Llp7]

This is addressed to my fellow democrats. We are investing in tesla because we know that climate change is the most important thing. It should be child's play to displace fossil fuel proponent, Russian asset, pathological lier trump. And yet this coming election is being thrown away for false causes. As long as trump advocates for equalizing relations between countries and races while democrats advocate for patronizing preferential treatment for other countries and non white races, we will lose this election, because the majority of the electorate will discern right and wrong in human relations (fairness is important to young children), while they will not discern right and wrong on the environment, which is more abstract.

 

[JRP3]

The xenophobes supporting Trump in the last election cared nothing for fairness and have a different idea of right and wrong.