Market politics

[Intl Professor]

I worked in Washington on a fellowship for a year missing the 1967-68 academic year. We had a dinner party at our apartment when Washington was burning after the MLK, Jr. assassination. We worried most of our guests might not show up because of rioting, but they had no trouble getting to the party. After dessert we went up to the roof of our 23 story building. I remember we marveled at the Washington Monument, some sixteen miles away, clearly lit in the distance from Silver Spring, Md., periodically disappearing due to smoke as the wind changed, then again, and disappearing again....

At work on hearing of the assassination I remarked to my colleagues, "why do we think this is a great country? The next thing I'll hear is Bobby Kennedy died in an airplane accident!" My wife and I attended a free concert at the National Gallery by the pianist Madelaine Malraux. Somewhat late, Ethel and Bobby Kennedy came into the small gallery and sat down. They looked so calm and he strolled in a relaxed graceful manner. A few days later....

On another occasion we hosted an old MIT chum. While I was paid at low rank of a GS-14 he was then Acting General Counsel for the Department of the Army. We talked of his hard work setting up arrangements for the government's response when Kennedy's body arrived in Washington. Getting enough candles was a major operation. He later went on to become managing partner in the Steptoe and Johnson law firm, one of the premier Democratic law firms in D.C.

I haven't watched the series. I understand (remember) Rosey Grier was perhaps a bodyguard or at least close to the Senator when he died. I remember later Grier purposefully crying in a video message to youngsters showing that a physical monster of a man could be a man and cry in public. Tears come to my eyes as I type this.

 

[JRP3]

Grier was the one who took down Sirhan Sirhan I believe.

 

[Paracelsus]

............Tears come to my eyes as I type this.

.......and our eyes got wet reading your experiences as well after watching the Bobby Kennedy series on Netflix. You have lived a blessed life, Professor........and we are blessed with your commentary on TMC. For me personally your discussions often fills a void in my life where my father recently was (he was a propulsion engineer on the Pioneer spacecraft for NASA in my youth, and later moved us from Cupertino to raise us on the family farm in Nebraska. We watched the first recovery of the SpaceX boosters together in amazement in his final days). Thank you for what you bring to the board! I am sure I am not the only one who is grateful for the opportunity to gain a breadth and depth of knowledge through the lens of your amazing life. I hope this finds you both doing well.
Namaste

 

[Bobfitz1]

Perhaps there is a difference between unstable and unpredictable? There certainly is no question that President Trump has thrown out all the books in regard to all things political. On the other hand, perhaps he is not being unpredictable as this is exactly what he said he would do during the election. That seems to be what got him elected in the first place. Perhaps this is just a different strategy than what we have ever seen. Time will tell if it proves effective. Regardless, the market seems to like it so far.
Dan

I'd strongly question your assumption that there is a strategy here anywhere except to play to his base. He just gave up joint military training exercise with our 60+ year ally South Korea to North Korea for exactly nothing in return. And without notifying SK government before doing so! I wonder if he discussed that with his advisors before saying it in front of all the cameras?

 

[X Fan]

I'd strongly question your assumption that there is a strategy here anywhere except to play to his base. He just gave up joint military training exercise with our 60+ year ally South Korea to North Korea for exactly nothing in return. And without notifying SK government before doing so! I wonder if he discussed that with his advisors before saying it in front of all the cameras?

Geez: a meeting and dialogue in Singapore is more than any administration has accomplished in recent memory. It may not be successful but it was worth a shot.

What I don’t get is why a large part of American is cheering for a negative outcome?

FWIW: “his base” are typically supporters of the military and “giving up” joint military exercises mean nothing to his base.

 

[dmckinstry]

Calm down, it's not like it's just the two of them unsupervised. Dennis Rodman is there.

The only adult in the room?

 

[JRP3]

What I don’t get is why a large part of American is cheering for a negative outcome?

Cozying up with a mass murdering lunatic dictator may not seem completely positive to everyone. It also gives a false appearance of competency to an obviously incompetent leader which will bolster his support. So it's definitely a mixed blessing so to speak.

 

[Bobfitz1]

Bobfitz1:
I'd strongly question your assumption that there is a strategy here anywhere except to play to his base. He just gave up joint military training exercise with our 60+ year ally South Korea to North Korea for exactly nothing in return. And without notifying SK government before doing so! I wonder if he discussed that with his advisors before saying it in front of all the cameras?

Geez: a meeting and dialogue in Singapore is more than any administration has accomplished in recent memory. It may not be successful but it was worth a shot.
What I don’t get is why a large part of American is cheering for a negative outcome?

Not sure where you get the idea that a large part of America is hoping for a negative outcome. Certainly not from my post.
All Kim Jong-un has agreed at this time is to participate in further discussions. Good. But every American president the past 30 years, regardless of party, has tried to negotiate with NK. Repeatedly the dictator of the moment has committed to giving up their nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions, but have renegedd when it came time to agree on inspections. After this first meeting, this administration is at most 1% of the way to a negotiated and enforceable solution.
So it's factually incorrect to claim this one starting meeting is more than any administration has accomplished.

Kim has won two major concessions from the self proclaimed World's greatest deal maker. Being legitimized by basking in the world's spotlight with an American president and being handed a suspension of military training exercises the U.S. and South Korea have held each year since post Korean war times.

FWIW: “his base” are typically supporters of the military and “giving up” joint military exercises mean nothing to his base.

What's your point? That giving up joint exercises against the advice of U.S. and South Korean military commanders with no consultation with the Korean ally is okay because Trump's base doesn't know enough history or foreign affairs to care?
They also apparently don't care that our closest ally Canada, which has fought with the U.S. in every major war the last hundred years is insulted and disparaged, while Russia and it's dictator are praised and coddled. Trump's brain washed base is as much or more the problem than their idol.

 

[bobinfla]

So let me see if I understand this. Two days ago the leader of North Korea was a ruthless dictator who is known to have committed many humanitarian atrocities, while he leads a poor country of starving citizens that teeters on the edge of bankruptcy. But magically, because Trump shook his hand, all other countries of the world have forgotten about that and now feel he is a legitimate leader of a country on equal footing with the U.S. and our allies.

Are we really supposed to believe that every other country in that world is led by people who are this clueless and gullible? Or could it be that is all complete nonsense, and that Trump didn't bestow sudden "legitimacy" on Kim.

Diplomacy is fascinating.

 

[Bobfitz1]

So is what can be found using Google if one choses to use it.

https://www.vox.com/world/2018/6/12/17442784/trump-kim-jong-un-north-korea-summit-narang

"Sean Illing
It would appear that we’ve vindicated Kim Jong Un’s strategy of illegally building and testing nuclear weapons to enhance his influence and credibility on the international stage.

Vipin Narang
That’s exactly right. This is why the US spent so long trying to stop states like Iraq and Libya from getting nukes in the first place. Kim bought himself a lifetime insurance policy, and other states, like Iran, are sure to notice that. "

https://www.theatlantic.com/politic...ve-unsettling-flattery-of-kim-jong-un/562619/

"It was an “honor” to meet Kim, Trump said. What surprised the American most about his counterpart? “Great personality and very smart—good combination,” he said. “I learned that he’s a very talented man. I also learned that he loves his country very much.” He added that Kim was “a worthy negotiator … a very worthy, very smart negotiator.” The president continued to gush during a press conference and in interviews."

 

[RABaby]

More frightening than the success of developing nuclear weapons as a way to successful negotiations, it's the fact that Trump said

“Without Otto Warmbier, this summit wouldn’t have happened,” the President said. “Otto is someone who did not die in vain.”

This rationalizing of heinous acts suggests we have a lunatic leading this nation - but where is he leading us?

 

[X Fan]

Bobfitz1:
I'd strongly question your assumption that there is a strategy here anywhere except to play to his base. He just gave up joint military training exercise with our 60+ year ally South Korea to North Korea for exactly nothing in return. And without notifying SK government before doing so! I wonder if he discussed that with his advisors before saying it in front of all the cameras?



Not sure where you get the idea that a large part of America is hoping for a negative outcome. Certainly not from my post.
All Kim Jong-un has agreed at this time is to participate in further discussions. Good. But every American president the past 30 years, regardless of party, has tried to negotiate with NK. Repeatedly the dictator of the moment has committed to giving up their nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions, but have renegedd when it came time to agree on inspections. After this first meeting, this administration is at most 1% of the way to a negotiated and enforceable solution.
So it's factually incorrect to claim this one starting meeting is more than any administration has accomplished.

Kim has won two major concessions from the self proclaimed World's greatest deal maker. Being legitimized by basking in the world's spotlight with an American president and being handed a suspension of military training exercises the U.S. and South Korea have held each year since post Korean war times.



What's your point? That giving up joint exercises against the advice of U.S. and South Korean military commanders with no consultation with the Korean ally is okay because Trump's base doesn't know enough history or foreign affairs to care?
They also apparently don't care that our closest ally Canada, which has fought with the U.S. in every major war the last hundred years is insulted and disparaged, while Russia and it's dictator are praised and coddled. Trump's brain washed base is as much or more the problem than their idol.

My comment was tied to your comment thatTrump playing to his base....that's nonsense.

Fact is there are too many political types and others cheering for President Trump to fail in these negotiations vs. supporting the effort...sadly, it's just a sign of our times whereby everything is politicized and the "other side" is always cheering for the incumbent to fail (goes for both parties)

btw: anyone living in California should hope that progress is made.

 

[Skotty]

It's hard not to want to see Trump fail. I myself have been completely behind past presidents, Democrat and Republican, and would have been happy to see Kasich, Rubio, or Jeb as President. But the apparent ill will that seeps out of Trump on a daily basis...it's difficult. It's really really difficult.

 

[johnnybgood888]

My comment was tied to your comment thatTrump playing to his base....that's nonsense.

Fact is there are too many political types and others cheering for President Trump to fail in these negotiations vs. supporting the effort...sadly, it's just a sign of our times whereby everything is politicized and the "other side" is always cheering for the incumbent to fail (goes for both parties)

btw: anyone living in California should hope that progress is made.

And where do you stand on Trump ripping up the Iran Nuclear Deal? Because Iran has given up 100x more concessions that NK has ever given in that deal and yet that was a bad deal? Assuming you're discussing in good faith, where is the consistency?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This negotiation was a success, the US precence in the East China Sea has been considerably curtailed. The Chinese should be quite proud of their diplomatic victory, even if it was super-easy.

 

[Intl Professor]

This negotiation was a success, the US precence in the East China Sea has been considerably curtailed. The Chinese should be quite proud of their diplomatic victory, even if it was super-easy.

You are in good company as are others. Here is a politically "neutral" but savvy assessment reaching the same conclusions.

The world should welcome Trump's bold move to engage Kim Jong Un

 

[DragonWatch]

I grew up with this quote:
“Peace for our time" was a declaration made by the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Neville Chamberlain in his 30 September 1938 speech concerning the Munich Agreement and the Anglo-German Declaration.

Time will tell, time will tell.

 

[wdolson]

I wonder if moderators moved a bunch of posts. This thread showed up today and I don't remember subscribing to it.

I grew up with this quote:
“Peace for our time" was a declaration made by the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Neville Chamberlain in his 30 September 1938 speech concerning the Munich Agreement and the Anglo-German Declaration.

Time will tell, time will tell.

I was thinking about this the other day. Trump is rehabbing Neville Chamberlain's legacy.

I have suspected North Korea suddenly came to the negotiating table is due to a number of factors. One is that I don't think Kim Jong Un is really crazy. He went to school in Switzerland and knows something about the west. I suspect he plays the crazy guy in world politics to try and bluff a bad hand his country holds. When the US got a really crazy leader suddenly he's changed his tune.

Another factor is Richard Engel had an expose a few weeks ago in which he showed that North Korea was probably helped along quite a bit in its missile program and possibly its nuclear program with help from the Russians. Some experts on Russian missiles have suspected NK's missiles happen to be almost exactly the same size as former Soviet missiles we knew about. Their missile technology also advanced suspiciously fast.

Evidence has also surfaced that the mountain where NK was testing nukes collapsed.

It's possible Putin decided they had helped NK enough and stopped giving them missiles and bomb materials, which left NK with no weapons and no missiles.

Though without opening up to full inspections by international regulators we won't know for sure.

Before the summit rumors were floating around that Kim Jong Un had offered Trump a burger franchise in Pengyang. Trump is silly enough to sign away everything for something like that. Trump only cares about two things: his ego and his money.

Malignant narcissists make horrible leaders. Dumb ones are even worse.

 

[ggr]

Mod: yes, thread was created with moved posts some months ago. And I keep moving posts into it from the pinned threads when the talk goes off-topic. --ggr.

 

[neroden]

I'd strongly question your assumption that there is a strategy here anywhere except to play to his base. He just gave up joint military training exercise with our 60+ year ally South Korea to North Korea for exactly nothing in return. And without notifying SK government before doing so! I wonder if he discussed that with his advisors before saying it in front of all the cameras?

While this is all true, we needed to stop doing the joint military training exercises years ago -- they served as a provocation to North Korea and nothing else. They were stupid -- strictly counterproductive, with no possible benefit. We should have stopped them in the *1980s*. So at least that's one good result from our erratic and thoughtless President.

(In general, US military exercises conducted outside a specific campaign are worthless and are mostly threatening annoyances; they are generally useless in actual wars; even George Marshall said something similar, indicating that the US did best in actual wars when it improvised.)