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Market politics

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Lessmog, Feb 3, 2018.

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  1. canoemore

    canoemore Member

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    It seems obvious that the reason why this tweet came out this morning was to distract from the less-than-rosy GDP numbers that came out today (contraction of 33%). The only issue on which Trump is still fairly trusted is the economy (god knows why). His failure to competently respond to the virus is destroying the US economy, and if this becomes the narrative it will substantially harm this final pillar of his support.

    He knows his chances of winning a free and fair election are already dismal. If his remaining supporters become disenchanted with the image of him as a competent manager of the economy there is no way he and the Republican party more broadly will be able to hold on to power with even a thin veneer of legitimacy.

    Their solution? Attempt to remove free and fair elections as an obstacle to that power.
     
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  2. bkp_duke

    bkp_duke Active Member

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    I'm a rascist? Really?

    Because I want CRIME . . . ya know . . . punished appropriately (and not, letting people go scott free is NOT punishment or a deterrent).
     
  3. bkp_duke

    bkp_duke Active Member

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    @wdolson beat me to it, but that woman was caught multiple times committing crimes. She got exactly what she deserved. Hope she gets a few months in prison for the repeat misdemeanors she committed.
     
  4. MikeQ

    MikeQ Member

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    If mail in ballots make it easier to cheat, why wouldn't Trump be for mail in?

    There was certainly a lot of fraud in Florida with mail in ballots the last election. Broward county has a reputation for misplacing absentie and mail in ballots as well as other serious fraud. The last two Supervisors of elections have been relieved of duty for tampering with ballots. (Both Democrats).
     
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  5. HG Wells

    HG Wells Active Member

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    There's a BLUE pill for that.
     
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  6. bkp_duke

    bkp_duke Active Member

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    The GDP contraction was actually less than predicted. We all knew it was coming.


    And how do you prevent voter fraud with mail-in ballots? Serious question, I would like to know.

    Say grandma Sally lives with her millenial grandaughter Jessica, who goes out and gets the mail. Jessica hates Trump with a passion, and decides that she will fill out both her and Sally's ballots and return them, even though she knows Sally would vote for Trump. Just one (likely) scenario of voter fraud I could easily come up with.

    How do you protect against that if you don't force people to vote in person? Inquiring minds want to know your answer.
     
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  7. canoemore

    canoemore Member

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    Fortunately, we do not need to rely on anecdote to come to a conclusion on this issue. The question of voter fraud has been exhaustively studied and it has been determined that despite vociferous claims from actors like Trump, it is an extremely rare phenomenon. This memo from the Brennan Center provides a great list of studies to support the claim that impersonation fraud is rare. This WaPo article discusses mail-in voter fraud specifically, coming to the same conclusion.
     
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  8. bkp_duke

    bkp_duke Active Member

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    Those studies were IN PERSON voter fraud. Not mail-in voter fraud. That completely changes the dynamic, and you know it.
     
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  9. canoemore

    canoemore Member

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    Go ahead and read through my last post. If you are actually interested in an honest, rigorous answer to your question, you fortunately do not need to rely on the answer of a random stranger on the internet. The issue has been studied extensively.

    If you are interested in perpetuating a long-disproved talking point, then I can't help you, and nor can any dispassionate examination of evidence. Emotional responses to anecdotes are not helpful if you're trying to understand this issue.
     
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  10. canoemore

    canoemore Member

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    Ah, you apparently didn't read to the end of my post where I link the article specifically about mail-in voting. Here's another article discussing it from the BBC:

    There have been isolated cases of postal ballot fraud in the past, such as in the 2018 North Carolina primary, which was re-run after a consultant of the Republican candidate tampered with voting papers.

    There was also a case earlier this year in New Jersey which saw two Democratic councillors charged with alleged fraud in relation to postal voting, after hundreds of ballots were found stuffed in a post box.

    But these are rare incidents, and the rate of voting fraud overall in the US is between 0.00004% and 0.0009%, according to a 2017 study by the Brennan Center for Justice.​

    Google can also be helpful when it comes to retrieving information, if you're genuinely curious.
     
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  11. bkp_duke

    bkp_duke Active Member

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    And you can go read my last post, if you want an honest and rigorous challenge. You are comparing Apples to Teslas. Mail-in voter fraud should be FAR more likely because you cannot secure the custody chain of the ballot, like you can with in-person voting. It's just that simple.
     
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  12. canoemore

    canoemore Member

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    source.gif
     
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  13. bkp_duke

    bkp_duke Active Member

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    Ah, the snark. Cute.

    How can we know if voter fraud actually happened with the House actively resisted any kind of investigation for it. Seriously, anytime Trump or any other GOP member wanted to do a serious investigation on this, the Dems resisted them at every turn.

    Corruption is rampant on BOTH sides of the aisle. Blue and Red. Let's not pretend that the Dems are innocent virgins. The Clintons should have taught us that lesson.


    @MikeQ already pointed out that the election commission official in one of the most pivotal counties, in one of the most pivotal states quit their job for rampant "discrepancies" in voter tallies in Florida. Key data point you want to ignore it seems.
     
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  14. dfwatt

    dfwatt Active Member

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    #7994 dfwatt, Jul 30, 2020 at 7:27 AM
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2020 at 7:42 AM
    Sorry to be late in getting to this. The conventional view was that Psychopaths were born and Sociopaths were made. That view has broken down (there was never much great data supporting it in any case) and it's pretty clear that both concepts are probably best described as emergent phenotypes with a high number of weak penatrance genes, but the gene environment interactions, although unmapped in terms of dynamics, look to be generative. There is evidence against the idea that sociopathy / psychopathy is genetically determined including the famous case example of a neuroscientist I believe his name is James Fallon if I remember that correctly, who essentially pinned the meter on the gene set and even had some consonant and classical neuroimaging findings but who clearly was not a sociopath.

    Another part of the problem is trying to get it what's essential versus derivative in psychopathy / sociopathy. I believe it's the empathy deficit and the deficits in conscience and impulse control maybe more derivative. Empathy in this context is defined as emotional empathy in other words the capacity to feel somebody else's pain and to be motivated by that experience to reduce their pain. Sociopaths/ Psychopaths simply don't feel that or it exists as a vestigial function. Because empathy underpins reciprocity in Social relations and therefore underpins most social rules which in turn are derivative of basic reciprocity principles, sociopaths have poor Conformity to social rules.

    An additional element is that they do not fear punishment and do not learn from aversive consequences, after breaking said social rules, something generally linked up with amygdala networks and orbital frontal function, which appear compromised. It is a non explanation however as referenced in another post by someone else on the Forum to suggest that these things can be explained in terms of "neurotransmitter issues". Some of the sociopathy gene set clearly affects the Dynamics of neurotransmitter uptake, transport and signaling, but this is not really an explanation. Perhaps a future science will be able to link those changes in cell signals to poor empathy / inability to share emotion / impoverishment of social relations. But we're not there yet.

    To make a long story short I think where we're at is that sociopaths probably emerge from a fairly diffuse and distributed set of genes interacting with neglect and abuse. Both neglect and abuse look to be critical and abuse by itself may not be enough.

    I left out the controversy about whether there is a clear phenotypic separation between Psychopaths as colder and more ruthless and sociopaths as more impulsive, more likely to get drug-addicted, Etc. I suspect those are secondary distinctions. Both share the core empathy deficit and the lack of conformity to social rules, the heavy Reliance on lying and manipulation, and the fundamental grandiosity.

    A final interesting question is the relationship of both of these to narcissistic personality disorders which also share the empathy deficit but perhaps not as severe a disruption of the capacity to conform to social rules. Because of all these considerations in my research I argued that these are on a continuum rather than clearly separated bins or baskets.
     
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  15. MikeQ

    MikeQ Member

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    Your cute studies aren't relevant to Florida. Florida's elections are tight. The last gubernatorial election came down to 32,000 votes. There was plenty of room for absentee ballots to swing the election. The problem only gets worse when ALL ballots are absentee.
     
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  16. canoemore

    canoemore Member

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    Not trying to be cute, although I'm flattered. Just trying to steer you towards quality information that can help you sort out signal from noise and anecdote. Disinformation is a dangerous thing in a democracy, and it's important that folks know where to go for good information.
     
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  17. canoemore

    canoemore Member

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    #7997 canoemore, Jul 30, 2020 at 7:41 AM
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2020 at 7:47 AM
    I certainly don't deny that elections in Florida are tight. What I do not accept is that "plenty of room for absentee ballots to swing the election" constitutes evidence of fraud. If you can supply that evidence, please do.

    Returning to the point that started this discussion, it certainly doesn't constitute a rationale for restricting voting access, much less postponing a national election. The burden of evidence for such a radical, extremist response should be astronomically high.
     
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  18. linux-works

    linux-works Active Member

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    destroying tools of oppression is as american as you can get.

    we did stuff like that, oohhhh, 200+ years ago.

    it was good then.

    its more needed now, in fact. arguably, the revolutionary war 'troubles' are nothing compared to the tyranny we now are closing in, on.

    when peaceful protests fail and when voting to change corruption fails, you do what you have to.

    we'll have to wait 10+ years to see how history views this. but when one side (the gov) needs a whipping - well, it has to happen every so often. in fact, its planned for by our founding fathers. its why we had so many checks and balances. it was a good run, but america 1.0 is mostly a failure and we need to reinvent ourselves to 2.1 levels (lets skip 2.0 as its going to be as buggy as a model Y made in a tent...) ;)
     
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  19. canoemore

    canoemore Member

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    Well, I understand your frustration, but I do think it serves as a useful opportunity to educate folks on how little substance there is behind the claims that this poster is advancing.
     
  20. bkp_duke

    bkp_duke Active Member

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    Ah, yes, censorship. Cherry-O mate.
     

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