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Market politics

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Lessmog, Feb 3, 2018.

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  1. bkp_duke

    bkp_duke Active Member

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    As you are so fond of saying: let me google that for you.

    Mail-In ballots make voter fraud easy. I know because I did it. | Opinion

    Admittedly, an N = 1. But in a population the size of FL, you can bet it wasn't the only one. And without admission, this is a HARD CRIME TO PROVE (and you have to have willingness to investigate, which the left has none of).
     
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  2. MikeQ

    MikeQ Member

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    #8002 MikeQ, Jul 30, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2020
    You can do the work. There's plenty of reports on it. 176,000 absentee ballots sent out but not returned. The reason being that the recipients received the ballots in the mail the day of the election and could not return them in time to be counted. That's just one example. There's plenty of others between 2000-2018.

    Also, you're kind of missing the point. If the problem, as you say, isn't really a big problem. It's because the ratio of mail in ballots to in person ballots is really low. When everyone is using mail in, the ratio can get very high and then your little problem is a big problem.
     
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  3. bkp_duke

    bkp_duke Active Member

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    A compounding problem (generated by the GOP) is that the USPS is looking to take much longer to deliver mail, as the new Postmaster General tries to reign in costs by reducing carrier overtime, etc. More mail-in ballots, longer delivery times to and from the voter, will result in many more ballots not being counted (on both sides).
     
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  4. MikeQ

    MikeQ Member

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    In the case I mentioned it was determined that the 176,000 ballots were mailed out AFTER the required deadline of Oct 31st. This happened in Miami-Dade County. (Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections is a Democrat).

    The thing with absentee ballots is that a large percentage of absentee ballots are to military members who overwhelmingly vote republican.
     
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  5. canoemore

    canoemore Member

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    #8005 canoemore, Jul 30, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2020
    My issue with your argument, and arguments like it is that they take an anecdotal "problem" and blow it up into a massive emergency with no evidence to support it. The fact that your rebuttal to a litany of rigorous studies on the matter is an opinion piece - with as you say, an N of 1- is characteristic. I think that policy - certainly regarding issues as fundamental to our democracy as the administration of elections - should be crafted based on a reality constructed from the most comprehensive available information, which, again, demonstrates that voter fraud - whether in-person of via the mail - is a rare phenomenon, and certainly not one common enough to impact the integrity of the electoral process.

    You'll note that this statement is not mutually exclusive with the concerns that you raise regarding election security. The anecdote of Margaret Menge may point to a weak-spot in voter verification that should be the target of a policy intervention. Hopefully any such policy intervention does not disenfranchise so many people that by solving the "problem" you actually weaken the integrity of elections even more. I'm sure we all agree that a barely perceptible amount of voter fraud should not result in undue restrictions on the franchise that prevent many people from exercising their constitutional rights.

    Also, I'm sure you're aware that there are 5 states that have exclusively use mail-in voting for a while: Colorado, Oregon, Washington, Utah, and Hawaii. Elections tend to run smoothly. If we want to anticipate problems with mail-in voting, these jurisdictions would be a good place to examine. A number of other states offer no-excuse absentee voting. Same story. There are many people who already vote by mail, and @MikeQ, your claim that, "When everyone is using mail in, the ratio can get very high and then your little problem is a big problem" is not credible in the absence of evidence from the places that already use mail in voting extensively.

    I share the concerns that both you and @MikeQ bring up about how a sudden switch to mail-in voting might strain the postal system and electoral infrastructure writ large. Fortunately, a bill has passed the House (H.R. 6800) that contains several billion dollars to shore up electoral voting security and capacity in the run up to November. Unfortunately, the Senate is holding it up. I'd like to invite you to join me in calling your senators and urging them to pass this bill, as well as do what they can to try to block the actions that you highlight with the administration harming the USPS's ability to deal with the mail.
     
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  6. canoemore

    canoemore Member

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    #8006 canoemore, Jul 30, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2020
    That is a travesty. It doesn't support claims of voter fraud, however. It certainly argues for shoring up the vote-by-mail system (and removing any election officials who do not faithfully execute their duties, if that outcome was not the result of an honest error or lack of resources). Making sure both local officials and the postal service have the resources they need to efficiently administer elections is paramount. Better yet, it argues strongly for Florida to send out ballots to all citizens (as do the 5 states I mention in my last post), so that even if you forget to request a ballot (or say, are posted overseas), you still receive one.

    EDIT:

    Vote by mail also enjoys overwhelming support from the American electorate: Poll: 70 percent of Americans support voting by mail

    "The latest Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll finds that 70 percent of voters support a mail-in option, including 88 percent of Democrats, 71 percent of independents and 50 percent of Republicans."​
     
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  7. DragonWatch

    DragonWatch Small FootPrint

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    Some like me, underwhelmingly vote Democratic or lean more towards democracy ~ the right misunderstands that for liberalism.

    FYI ~ thought my grandfather died to eliminate kingdoms.

    FYI ~ as a career soldier I executed military law and thankfully never morally or ethically faced crossing into marshal law. That line defines your soul.

    I am kind of saying this, as a soldier, so not to be lumped into the rest of my family chandelier ~ the lights there are not too bright.
     
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  8. Ipe

    Ipe Supporting Member

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    The rational goal should be to minimize crime in your society. Vengeful imprisonment turns out to be inefficient in that aspect. Use first principles and find a better solution. Yes, that can be counterintuitive.
     
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  9. bkp_duke

    bkp_duke Active Member

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    And lack of consequences to actions teaches no lesson at all.

    In CA, since they have made thefts below $950 a misdemeanor now, before COVID-19 there was an increase in up-tick of "flash mobs" that would run into stores and grab as much clothing, etc. as they could and rush out.

    Before, when there were stiffer penalties, this was far more rare.



    Also, I can say, as someone who likes to drive fast, if there were no consequences (i.e. no punishment) to breaking the speed limit, you can bet your Tesla that I would haul ass much more than I do now.

    Consequences don't have to be vengeful, or excessive, but they MUST have a deterrent effect, or they are useless.
     
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  10. Intl Professor

    Intl Professor Active Member

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    Like the death penalty and spousal abuse.
     
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  11. Intl Professor

    Intl Professor Active Member

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    Partisanship aside, the Republican leadership is destroying their cred as an alternative. Our best hope for a two party system would be the traditional Dems steeped in the mud of crapitalism versus a Christian Socialist Party. Afterall, what is socialism but christian capitalism on the economic plane?
     
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  12. bkp_duke

    bkp_duke Active Member

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    The irony of today's news cycle:
    4 LA men admit to Skid Row voter-fraud scheme, DA announces
    4 sentenced for their role in voter fraud scheme that bribed people on Skid Row with money, cigarettes | KTLA
    Four men admit to participating in voter fraud scheme in Los Angeles Skid Row
    'Voter fraud scheme' targeted homeless on LA Skid Row, prosecutors say


    The temptation here, and in my opinion the problem, is that these people are paid to sign people up to vote. And they are paid by the sign-up. If someone wants to help people legally register to vote, that's a worthy cause, but PAYING someone to do it adds too much incentive for abuse, at least for these 4 guys it was.
     
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  13. canoemore

    canoemore Member

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    #8013 canoemore, Jul 30, 2020
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2020
    Ultra-conservative Steve Calabresi - co-founder of the Federalist Society, that bastion of left-wing propaganda - has called for Trump's immediate impeachment: twitter link

    "Until recently, I had taken as political hyperbole the Democrats' assertion that President Trump is a fascist. But this latest tweet is fascistic and grounds for the president's immediate impeachment again by the House of Representatives and his removal from office by the Senate."​

    The rats are starting to jump ship. If they don't already, I bet many Republicans in Congress will soon wish they had voted to impeach and remove him when they had the chance. As Rick Wilson is fond of saying, they bought the ticket. Now they get to take the ride. And if they try to distance themselves, Trump will destroy them. He owns "conservative" America now.
     
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  14. bkp_duke

    bkp_duke Active Member

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    I called for his impeachment weeks ago, given his abysmal handling of the pandemic.

    (shock, I'm not a registered Republican or Trump loyalist)
     
  15. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    • Informative x 3
  16. wdolson

    wdolson Supporting Member

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    The biggest electoral blowout in US history was Lyndon Johnson's win in 1964. The popular vote was 61-38.5. Polls that force people to choose rather than say undecided show about a 14 point race now with Biden up near 60%. That indicates that the undecideds are people who have left the Trump camp, but haven't decided whether they are going to vote for Biden or not.

    I've been watching the approval polls for almost 4 years now. When you look at the breakdown of approval, Trump's strong approval has always hovered in the 20-25% range while his strong disapproval hovered in the 50% range. The strong approve and strong disapprove are people who have solidly made up their minds about his re-election. The mild approve and disapprove are "gettable" under the right circumstances. trump is currently bleeding the 20-25% mild approve people who have now decided they don't approve of him anymore. Some have jumped on the Biden bandwagon while others are trying to decided whether to vote Biden, third party, or stay home. They have decided Trump doesn't deserve their vote again.

    Considering how close presidential elections usually are, this one is beginning to look like one of the bigger blowouts.

    Ultimately elected Republicans want to keep their jobs. Very few of them really like Trump. I have heard from many sources that if they thought they could get re-elected by getting rid of Trump, almost every Republican Senator would be climbing over one another to finish him off. If Trump's support collapses, the elected Republicans will turn on him.

    He desperately wants COVID-19 to go away. It's been an unmitigated disaster for Trump.

    You point out the real weak spot in US elections: the inside man (or woman) exploit. In person voter fraud or trying to mail in multiple ballots is retail hacking, it picks up one or two extra votes and while some people have done it to prove a point, trying to do it on any scale almost always leads to getting caught, as shown in the arrests today in Los Angeles. The more people involved in a conspiracy, the harder it is to cover up. The chances of one person mentioning something incriminating to the wrong person goes up every day the conspiracy exists. That's why criminal gangs have such draconian penalties for people who betray their secrets. They need to to maintain security.

    One person might be able to manage to cast a couple of extra votes, but they are risking getting caught of a fairly major crime in most states for only a minuscule gain.

    The place to commit voter fraud on a scale that makes a difference is to have someone on the inside at the office that counts the votes or to rig the voting machines in places that have electronic voting. That's the best bang for the buck and a very small number of people can swing elections with lower risk of getting caught.

    All this noise being made about in person voter fraud and mail in voter fraud is a distraction to divert attention from the real vector for voter fraud.

    And anyone who understands how the GOP works has pointed out that Trump's mission to destroy the reputation of mail in voting is just going to hurt the GOP because the bulk of permanent mail in voting for the last 30 years has been reliable GOP voters. The GOP GOTV efforts has involved targeting likely GOP voters and getting them signed up to permanently vote by mail.

    In polls asking people about whether they would prefer to vote in person vs vote by mail (before the pandemic), people who tend to vote Democrat preferred in person voting because they got something out of the ritual. GOP voters just wanted to get it done and vote by mail was easy.

    The Republican Secretary of State had an interview on NPR a few months back about this very topic. There have been several studies done on the frequency of in person voter fraud was in both polling places and by mail. The instances of it are tiny because it's a very high risk for low reward crime.
    Lessons To Learn From Washington's Decades-Long Experience Of Mail-In Voting

    Why steal pennies when you can get your guy inside and steal millions? In places like Washington they also have security measures to protect the ballots once they are in the system. The signatures on the ballots are digitally scanned with state of the art signature recognition software and anything rejected is spit out so humans can inspect. There are various checks to prevent one human or a few humans from tampering with the results.

    But some states are not great at security in their election offices. I've read Florida is one of the worst at it.
     
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  17. canoemore

    canoemore Member

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    Damn skippy
     
  18. linux-works

    linux-works Active Member

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    well, this sounds exciting. I can't wait to see how it turns out:

    PINAL COUNTY, Ariz. — The Pinal County Sheriff's Office has officially launched a new program that deputizes civilians to assist in law enforcement situations.

    The program is titled "Citizens Posse." In a press release describing its purpose, PCSO said in a hypothetical emergency situation, or times of widespread unrest, they may need assistance defending the county.

    According to PCSO, participants will be required to take a four-hour course that will teach the basics of constitutional law, search and seizure, basic firearm safety, home safety, and the use of force.

    “As Sheriff of Pinal County, I am given the authority to deputize civilians to assist in law enforcement. While we hope such an action is never required, we want to make sure those willing to step into the role are trained and ready,” said Sheriff Mark Lamb.

    To apply, applicants will be required to take a minimal background check and sign a waiver.
    PCSO says the program is open to all residents, not just those in Pinal County.


    New Pinal County Sheriff 'Citizens Posse' program allows residents to be deputized

    we know what this is about. and its sickening.

    again, world: I have to apologize for my fellow americans. this isn't what we were about and most of us know that.
     
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  19. wdolson

    wdolson Supporting Member

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    The LincolnProject released a short film today


    They have brought Jon Turteltaub onboard who is a Hollywood director and producer with a fairly long list of credits.
     
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  20. DragonWatch

    DragonWatch Small FootPrint

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    This is only pushing them more to the right:cool: I did laugh a lot though.

    My wife finally declared her sister mentally questionable based on her Q-Republicans comments on Facebook. Do not, do not ask for my military point of view on her (sister-in-law) or Qanon. Moderators will have a hard time keeping my head from spinning 360 degrees at 3600 rpm while my eyes rotate to look behind me like my second grade teacher.

    I cannot bury my head deep enough:eek: I still hear dead people walking and talking.:(
     

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