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Thanks for the additional information re Bloomberg and wider context @wdolson.
On further reflection I think it likely Bloomberg hasn't forgotten his promise but is keeping his powder dry. Trump has been digging his own political grave the past few months and Biden has wisely stayed out of his way until now. I hope Bloomberg has offered future funding to the Lincoln Project. It would be encouraging if you find and post a link to confirm that.
We shouldn't forget that unlimited money is not Bloombergs only asset. I understand his organization has data analytics expertise at a higher level than LP or the Dems can muster on their own. That expertise could really help counter manipulation of social media by the far right and Russians.
I believe you are mostly right that that "a blizzard of money doesn't do the job anymore.", but I'd qualify that to 'doesn't do the job reliably across many voting segments. Bloomberg and Styers ad spending had little or no effect persuading Dem voters who'd seen them during debates and were unimpressed. There are still some voting segments that get much of their political news and ads from television.
Lots of airtime for Lincoln Project and other effective anti Trump ads will still have an impact in this election.
Watching Kamala Harris's pitch perfect first speech against Trump was very encouraging. Someone with real ability to deploy language effectively wrote or helped draft it, and Kamala's demeanor and delivery of them couldn't have been been better.
The funny thing is that the Republicans are trying to paint Biden/Harris as radical leftists
The Daily Show last night showed a montage of Fox News trying to paint Kamala Harris as something bad, but they couldn't decide on what. They were alternating between she's too tough on crime to she's an extreme left wing ideologue.
I've observed to my SO that all of Biden's weaknesses are much worse within Trump. If Trump tries to paint Biden as senile, it reminds people of how senile he seems sometimes. If he tries to paint Biden as low energy people now see Biden out riding his bike and Trump can't even golf without driving his golf cart everywhere. If he tries to paint Biden as too old, it reminds people that Trump is only a few years younger (and physiologically in worse shape).
Kamala Harris puts Trump and the GOP in another similar bind. Her biggest policy criticism is being too tough on crime when Trump is trying to get re-elected by being the tough on crime candidate. Then they try to flip it and call her too far left, which contradicts the too tough on crime message. They look like they are panicking and just throwing stuff at the wall hoping something will stick.
This is what the GOP does when they start to attack a candidate. You see on Fox News a series of narratives trotted out and they see which of them gets the best traction and go with that. With the Clintons being shifty and behaving like criminals was the narrative that worked. With Bill specifically his infidelities had traction.
With Obama I watched them try the shifty thing first, which failed. Then they tried the messaging that he was a follower of a nutty preacher, which also failed. They finally settled on racism, which worked.
They can't get any kind of traction on anything that works with either Biden nor Harris. Both are not very memeable. Stephen Colbert has commented that the only thing that even remotely works to lampoon Biden is to put on a pair of aviator sunglasses and talk a bit old timey.
It looks like Trump is going to go racist on Harris, which will work great with his base, but it will further alienate other people who might vote for him. According to polls, the #1 complaint among those who were moving away from Trump was the blatant racism.
We've been discussing it around here the last few weeks. I have a theory that some whites are what I call "soft" racists. They may have some deep down fears about minorities, but they also feel guilty about it. So they are conflicted. I think one example was the Karen who called the police about the black birdwatcher in Central Park. She later said in an interview she was a Democrat and had voted for Barack Obama. On a conscious level she felt somewhat positive about minorities, but on a subconscious level she was afraid of them when she had to confront one.
Those soft racists are vulnerable to dog whistle messaging that is crafted to make people scared of the "others" out to get you. But they are going to feel uncomfortable with overt racism like what Trump displays sometimes. Trump is driving them away as his racism gets more overt.
I predicted to my SO the day Kamala Harris got named to the ticket that Trump was going to cast about trying to attack her, but when nothing got traction, he was going to ramp up the racism to levels he's never done before. I predicted he would eventually resort to the "N word" or something pretty close.
Every day the polls don't move in Trump's direction he gets nervous. Every time they inch a little further Biden's direction he feels terror. A cornered malignant narcissist is someone willing to do literally anything to change the situation. Between now and Jan 20 Trump is far more dangerous than he's ever been.
Your right Bloomberg could offer his analytics to the Biden campaign and others on the cheap. Bloomberg may have sidelined his money to wait and see which former Republican PAC appeared to be most effective. I'd put my money on the Lincoln Project, but Bill Krystol's PAC had what I thought was a very effective series of ads in which former Republicans tell their story about why they left. But when it comes to psychological warfare, some of the people on the Lincoln Project are the best in the business.
Trump's henchman is continuing to gut the post office.
USPS removes mailboxes in Portland and Eugene, cites ‘declining mail volume’
Postal Service removes some mail-sorting machines, sparking concerns ahead of election - CNNPolitics
Trump admits he’s stalling pandemic relief to make it harder to vote
USPS removes mailboxes in Portland and Eugene, cites ‘declining mail volume’
Postal Service removes some mail-sorting machines, sparking concerns ahead of election - CNNPolitics
Trump admits he’s stalling pandemic relief to make it harder to vote
Another article on the postal service shenanigans
How Trump’s Attack on the Post Office Could Backfire
Michael Cohen's book is coming out next month. Apparently it's a tell all from Trump's fixer.
And one more thing about the birtherism, there is a surprising amount of case law and history about this.
Natural-born-citizen clause - Wikipedia
In dismissing one of the birther cases against Barack Obama the judge pointed out that 6 US presidents had one or both parents be non-US citizens.
There is some murkiness about US citizens born outside the US. It has never been decided by the Supreme Court, but there are some cases that decided that a person who is a US citizen by birth who was not born on US soil is an automatically naturalized citizen and not born a US citizen. That would disqualify Ted Cruz from being president.
However, the case law for anyone born on US soil is pretty clear. The first case was from an 1844 case in which a woman had been born in New York while her parents were visiting the US and then she moved back to England as an infant. At the time New York had a law requiring that someone must be a US citizen to inherit property in the state and the court ruled that she qualified as a natural born citizen so she could inherit property in New York.
That case was cited in the Supreme Court cases on the 14th amendment citizenship at birth implying that the court was tying the two together.
Additionally the argument that neither of Kamala Harris' parents were citizens when she was born in California doesn't hold water as an argument against being natural born. If true, then Andrew Jackson was never president. His parents emigrated from Northern Ireland two years before he was born.
A lot of people will claim it's racism, but birtherism is party-ism not racism. Republicans have no problem with Ted Cruz being born to a Cuban citizen and a US citizen in Canada (which might actually disqualify him if he's actually auto-naturalized), but they have problems with Kamala Harris and Barack Obama having immigrant parents.
The pertinent difference isn't race, it's party affiliation. In the Republican world, Republicans are always right/innocent and Democrats are always wrong/guilty. Doesn't matter what the facts are. I hate hypocrisy, especially blatant hypocrisy.
How Trump’s Attack on the Post Office Could Backfire
Michael Cohen's book is coming out next month. Apparently it's a tell all from Trump's fixer.
And one more thing about the birtherism, there is a surprising amount of case law and history about this.
Natural-born-citizen clause - Wikipedia
In dismissing one of the birther cases against Barack Obama the judge pointed out that 6 US presidents had one or both parents be non-US citizens.
There is some murkiness about US citizens born outside the US. It has never been decided by the Supreme Court, but there are some cases that decided that a person who is a US citizen by birth who was not born on US soil is an automatically naturalized citizen and not born a US citizen. That would disqualify Ted Cruz from being president.
However, the case law for anyone born on US soil is pretty clear. The first case was from an 1844 case in which a woman had been born in New York while her parents were visiting the US and then she moved back to England as an infant. At the time New York had a law requiring that someone must be a US citizen to inherit property in the state and the court ruled that she qualified as a natural born citizen so she could inherit property in New York.
That case was cited in the Supreme Court cases on the 14th amendment citizenship at birth implying that the court was tying the two together.
Additionally the argument that neither of Kamala Harris' parents were citizens when she was born in California doesn't hold water as an argument against being natural born. If true, then Andrew Jackson was never president. His parents emigrated from Northern Ireland two years before he was born.
A lot of people will claim it's racism, but birtherism is party-ism not racism. Republicans have no problem with Ted Cruz being born to a Cuban citizen and a US citizen in Canada (which might actually disqualify him if he's actually auto-naturalized), but they have problems with Kamala Harris and Barack Obama having immigrant parents.
The pertinent difference isn't race, it's party affiliation. In the Republican world, Republicans are always right/innocent and Democrats are always wrong/guilty. Doesn't matter what the facts are. I hate hypocrisy, especially blatant hypocrisy.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
But he's not black. There is certainly a racist component to it.
Scientific American - today: Trump Administration Completes Climate Dismantling with Methane Rollback
What DeJoy is doing to the USPS is beyond the pale. I've contacted all of my Congressional reps and have urged them to take action - including, in the case of my House representative, urging leadership to resume session and hold hearings immediately.
I have never been so alarmed about the ability for our country to hold a free and fair election.
For some people there is, but Republicans have never said boo about Will Hurd or Tim Scott (two currently serving black legislators). Nor did I hear anything about Herman Cain or Ben Carson when they ran for president.
African Americans are rarely children of immigrants, so there are few examples from either party who went into politics, but there is one Republican who has been pressured for years to run for president by the republicans, but has declined: Colin Powell. Both his parents emigrated from Jamaica (same country as Kamala Harris' father). I looked up the immigration status of his parents. His father did become naturalized in 1936, a year before Colin was born, but his mother didn't become naturalized until 1940.
Have you ever heard anybody question Colin Powell's natural born status? I haven't.
The citizenship status of Colin Powell's parents and Barack Obama's are the same x with the exception that Barack Obama's mother was also a natural born citizen with roots going back to the colonies. ie, his claim to birthright citizenship is stronger than Powell's. The possibility of Powell running for president is completely non-controversial, but we put up with 8 years of birtherism with Obama. And Obama has more white ancestry than Powell (Powell apparently has some as his parents were mixed)!
As long as someone has an R after their name, all "sins" are forgiven by the GOP. All "sins" are horrible hair on fire crisis if someone is a Democrat. It's an extreme double standard few talk about.
Trevor Noah summed it up that Americans are so caught up in their "exceptionalism" that they ignore the third world stuff leaders in the US can pull.
A major disaster in the US Monday and it didn't really make the news
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/08/14/iowa-derecho-attention-aid/
One first hand account said that all the radio stations were off the air for a couple of days and the first one back was running Hannity with no local news. They heard about the hurricanes in the Atlantic that aren't going to make landfall, but nothing about Iowa. It's strange that such a major disaster just gets ignored by everyone. It reinforces the belief in flyover country that nobody cares about them.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/08/14/iowa-derecho-attention-aid/
One first hand account said that all the radio stations were off the air for a couple of days and the first one back was running Hannity with no local news. They heard about the hurricanes in the Atlantic that aren't going to make landfall, but nothing about Iowa. It's strange that such a major disaster just gets ignored by everyone. It reinforces the belief in flyover country that nobody cares about them.
The change that you can expect from a Trump Biden debate; it will be man on man. Trump — in his cowardly mind — won’t be able stalk a woman.
Any man that treats women in this manner, is a lascivious coward.
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
No doubt. Of course you could make a similar video 10 times as long about Trump. I wonder if those guys would be laughing as hard at that? The point they are trying to make falls flat to say the least.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
You mistake me for a Trump supporter.
I'm just busting out the popcorn watching the dumbassery on both sides of the aisle.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Absolutely, there is no shortage of material.
But the point still sticks - Biden has some serious aphasia. Any 1st year medical student would be able to properly make that diagnosis.
Trump just constantly shows his low IQ.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
That implies equal dumbassery on both sides. Biden certainly has some intermittent cognitive issues, Trump's seem chronic.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Biden's are definitely chronic as well. Don't play apologist for him and try to downplay it. He has serious signs of post-stroke cognitive impairment. Don't be surprised if Harris is president within 6 months if Biden gets elected.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I'm not downplaying or apologizing, I know his shortcomings. The point is in between a few verbal stumbles he usually says things which make some sense. Trump does not because he's chronically an idiot as well as a psychopathic narcissist. I'd be fine with president Harris if Biden can't cut it. At this point I don't care if they run an eggplant against Trump as long as they win and he's gone.
Are you saying he's been impaired for 32 years? His only brain issues were in 1988 when he had two operations for brain aneurysms one was leaking.
His health report from last December
Joe Biden's doctor says the 77-year-old White House hopeful is 'healthy' and 'vigorous'
I do agree that Biden has aphasia which at times is severe. It's a side effect of his overcoming childhood stuttering. It's common for stutters to replace the stutter with aphasia after therapy.
As someone with dyslexia related aphasia, I know exactly what's going on in his head. The brain circuit that connects words to concepts doesn't work all that well. At times I'll have the concept in my head in complete Technicolor, but finding the words to describe it sometimes fails me. When under pressure, I'll grab the first word that seems to fit, but it will often be the wrong one, often related to the concept, but a different meaning. I'm particularly terrible with names of people and nouns in general.
It gets worse when I'm mentally tired.
I've been watching Biden interviews throughout the campaign for actual signs of cognitive impairment beyond his hoof in mouth disease. He seems to be on par with my father when he was Biden's age. My father taught himself Photoshop 10 years later and was helping me rotate the tires on my car at Biden's age. My father was actually able to remove lug nuts I couldn't, but then he's built like a fireplug and I only weighed 140 pounds then (I'm 6'2").
My SO has a masters in Psych as well as a lot of first hand experience with personality disorders. In her opinion Trump is not actually seeing any cognitive decline. He was never very bright intellectually, but a characteristic of Narcissistic Personality Disorders when the walls start caving in is the sort of behavior we're seeing now from Trump. All his life he's been able to bluster his way out of tight places and it worked, but now it's failing and he doesn't have the tools in the toolbox to handle that.
Near the end of WW II Hitler retreated into a fantasy world where he had resources at his disposal to fight the war that were no longer there. For example after Operation Bagration (a Soviet offensive in July and August 1944 that wiped out a swath of the German front almost 1000 miles long) he would make orders to move divisions to the front to plug gaps that no longer existed.
Hitler's addiction to stimulants didn't help either.
The retreat into fantasy-land that NPDs can do under crisis is in effect the same as mental degradation. They are operating like someone with dementia. The difference being that the effects are temporary if the external events are. If external events changed to favor Trump again, he would snap out of his dementia. Though I don't think that's going to happen.
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