Market politics

[neroden]

I am rooting for a deal to be made between the US and China. I think Trump is unusually equipped for a president to handle trade deals because of his business acumen.

That's because you've never actually researched Trump at all. He's a *really really bad businessman*. He would have made more money by dumping his inheritance into the S&P 500 than he actually made through his terrible "business ventures".

(Trump's businesses started to recover from their financial tailspin when Ivanka took over all the business operations, because she's moderately competent.)

You want to see someone with business acumen, look at Michael Bloomberg. Or even J B Pritzker. Heck, Rick Snyder -- I think he was a terrible governor, but his business career was competent. Rick Scott was a hardened criminal whose business acumen consisted mostly of defrauding the government, but he was apparently very good at defrauding the government. By contrast, Trump isn't even good at making money through fraud.

Some of us on this side of the country have been following Trump's antics since the 1980s. Believe us when we say he's an incompetent businessman.

Like him or hate him, one has to admit that he is very good at getting things done.

He really, really, really isn't. You have never followed his business career, I can tell. Lots of unfinished buildings and cancelled deals.

 

[neroden]

Good point Curt. His techniques seemed to have worked so far with North Korea.

In that North Korea got everything it wanted and made no concessions to the US... yes, I guess Trump's techniques "worked"? South Korea is now jumping to open relations with North Korea and push the unstable US away, so mission accomplished?

I'm OK with that, but was that actually Trump's goal?

 

[neroden]

If he truly was a conman then the Trump Organization would have fallen apart because nobody would want to do business with him.

It pretty much was falling apart. Subcontractors refused to work with The Donald because he hadn't paid other subcontractors. It recovered because Ivanka took over the business operations about 13 years ago, and she's actually a competent businesswomen.

This is pretty obvious to people who've actually followed NY business.

 

[JRP3]

This is pretty obvious to people who've actually followed NY business.

Yup, my uncle did business in the NY/NJ area and the word was to never do business with Trump. My uncle was a lifetime Republican who voted for Hillary over Trump.

 

[neroden]

Other points: his bankruptcies were not in the real estate sector sensu stricto. They were in the gambling business, for cry-i. My dead g-g-g-ggrandmother couldn't fail at that business!

Some detailed citations on this:

How Donald Trump Bankrupted His Atlantic City Casinos, but Still Earned Millions

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-empire/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.7cd9494ea06b

 

[MikeQ]

NY in general is a corrupt state. Donald Trump is just following the status quo. Not really defending him. Don't really like him. But the reality is that NY is the most politically corrupt state in the nation and has been for a long time.

I grew up in Rochester BTW.

 

[neroden]

For the record I am a long TSLA holder and am a major renewable energy advocate. I am not a troll. I live in the Midwest and it is clear to me that often the people in between the coasts, especially in rural areas, are not understood. They are often dismissed as being stupid, racist, or greedy. So I think we should speak up from time to time.

I live far from the coast, in a rural area, myself (the nearest farm is within walking distance). One of my closest friends lives in North Dakota.

The media has gotten so terrible that many people just don't know what's actually going on. This is worse in rural areas because they have worse media access. Most people, in urban or rural areas, are kept very busy by long work hours and don't have time to inform themselves, even if they do have access to half-decent media. The problem is ignorance -- such as your ignorance of Trump's actual history as a really terrible businessman and a con man -- stuff I knew from reading the NY newspapers for the last 40 years, but if you were reading the Iowa papers, you wouldn't have known about it.

Even though I am a big renewable energy fan, I think a quick transition would do more harm than good. For instance, say you own or work for a private corn processing plant. Often these plants use coal fired boilers since the plants are typically at least 50-60 years old. These businesses do not have a lot of spare change laying around. Forcing a plant to scrap a boiler prematurely would potentially put many of these types of businesses out of work and be very detrimental to the economy. However, most of these plants are replacing the coal fired boilers with cleaner fuel boilers once they are out of life. This trend has not changed since Trump became president.

There should be a government program to promote fuel switching. The Republicans have opposed this. Democrats have supported it.

The new processing systems will be more efficient and save money in the long run, so the issue is capital costs. Therefore the most appropriate tool is zero-interest or low-interest-rate loans to replace inefficient old boilers with efficient electric or waste-biomass process heat. Grants would be OK too.

 

[MikeQ]

New York has more corrupt officials than any other state

 

[neroden]

NY in general is a corrupt state. Donald Trump is just following the status quo. Not really defending him. Don't really like him. But the reality is that NY is the most politically corrupt state in the nation and has been for a long time.

Not really accurate. I've spent a surprising amount of time studying this. NY has, historically, by far the most corrupt *legislature* in the US historically. This is true.

But we have the *cleanest*, most pillar-of-rectitude judicial branch at the upper levels. (The judicial branch selection mechanisms in NY are unique and end up being very good at filtering the corrupt out of the higher level courts.) This also means that we catch and remove a lot more corrupt officeholders than states like Louisiana where the judicial branch is also corrupt. In Louisiana, your average crooked lawmaker is unlikely to be removed by his buddy the crooked judge.

The NYS executive branch is also cleaner than average for the US. I believe this is due to the Attorney General and Comptroller having a strong political incentive to find any wrongdoing by the Governor, or by each other (it's their primary method of political advancement).

This combination -- an ultracorrupt legislature, a clean judiciary, and powerful independently-elected officials with a strong incentive to prosecute the legislators and corrupt executive branch officials -- means we get by far the largest number of *removed corrupt officials*. But states where those officials never get removed are more corrupt. (Wisconsin now has several blatantly corrupt Republican State Supreme Court judges. Do you think any other corrupt officials in their party are getting removed right now? Hmmm.)

It's a classic example of reporting bias. (The most famous example: the number of reported rapes in most states has been going up, but the number of rapes has probably been going down -- more of them are being reported.)

It's a weird situation; it took me a long time to figure it out and most people don't understand it. NY State functions quite well despite the legislature; we have problems any time some state problem actually requires the legislature to act. (Things might change in the legislature now that the old cabal has finally lost power in the State Senate, but I still expect it to be bad, maybe just not quite as bad.)

I grew up in Rochester BTW.

Trump is significantly more dishonest than average even for Queens, which is one of the more corrupt parts of NY.

 

[JRP3]

NY in general is a corrupt state. Donald Trump is just following the status quo.

Atlantic City is not in NY so your "logic" doesn't follow.

 

[Unpilot]

NY in general is a corrupt state. Donald Trump is just following the status quo. Not really defending him. Don't really like him. But the reality is that NY is the most politically corrupt state in the nation and has been for a long time.

I grew up in Rochester BTW.

This is what I was referring to. It is a form of what aboutism. It SHOULD matter if a person is corrupt.
And to be frank the level of corruptness should matter as well. When it becomes you modus operandi and you become the freaking president THAT is a problem.

 

[traxila]

That's because you've never actually researched Trump at all. He's a *really really bad businessman*. He would have made more money by dumping his inheritance into the S&P 500 than he actually made through his terrible "business ventures".

(Trump's businesses started to recover from their financial tailspin when Ivanka took over all the business operations, because she's moderately competent.)

You want to see someone with business acumen, look at Michael Bloomberg. Or even J B Pritzker. Heck, Rick Snyder -- I think he was a terrible governor, but his business career was competent. Rick Scott was a hardened criminal whose business acumen consisted mostly of defrauding the government, but he was apparently very good at defrauding the government. By contrast, Trump isn't even good at making money through fraud.

Some of us on this side of the country have been following Trump's antics since the 1980s. Believe us when we say he's an incompetent businessman.


He really, really, really isn't. You have never followed his business career, I can tell. Lots of unfinished buildings and cancelled deals.

Can I second this? Trump is a terrible businessman. Just awful. I have unfortunately been witness to his relentless stupidities since the mid 80s as a NYC resident. Still stunned he is President.

Without Daddy I really question if he would have ever made any money at all. Just ask yourself how you would be doing right now if someone had handed you 400 million or so by 1990. That we know of. You would be worth billions just through passive stock funds.

If you had a clue about real estate you would be worth much much more than Trump, who was actively bailed out from complete bankruptcy at least once by daddy.

 

[traxila]

NY in general is a corrupt state. Donald Trump is just following the status quo.

“US in general is a corrupt country. Donald Trump is just following the status quo.”

There fixed it for you.

 

[Heart Land]

There is a massive amount of misinformation out there. We all could go back and forth, but never get anywhere. I have a proposal. Since this is the TMC forum, if the Chinese auto tariffs decrease below 15% within the next 6 months then you all have to give Trump credit. No saying, that he had nothing to do with it. If the tariffs increase over 15%, then I will concede that Trump may be the lying conman that you all claim.

I especially would like to see Neroden confess that Trump may be a better businessman than what he claims, if tariffs decrease. The statement that he could have just invested his dad’s fortunes in the S&P 500 particularly does not hold water.

 

[JRP3]

Since this is the TMC forum, if the Chinese auto tariffs decrease below 15% within the next 6 months then you all have to give Trump credit. No saying, that he had nothing to do with it. If the tariffs increase over 15%, then I will concede that Trump may be the lying conman that you all claim.

Sorry but those are not mutually exclusive. Just because tariffs go down, even if it was because of his actions, that does not negate Trump being a lying conman. It's not based on this single issue but his body of work. You clearly want to keep your blinders on and ignore the obvious well known negatives.

 

[traxila]

There is a massive amount of misinformation out there. We all could go back and forth, but never get anywhere. I have a proposal. Since this is the TMC forum, if the Chinese auto tariffs decrease below 15% within the next 6 months then you all have to give Trump credit. No saying, that he had nothing to do with it. If the tariffs increase over 15%, then I will concede that Trump may be the lying conman that you all claim.

I especially would like to see Neroden confess that Trump may be a better businessman than what he claims, if tariffs decrease. The statement that he could have just invested his dad’s fortunes in the S&P 500 particularly does not hold water.

Yeah, misinformation is AKA news. Don't blame you if you had not really heard of Trump prior to 2015. It is all so hard to believe.

Maybe you are right. Maybe somehow, he is now in his element, perfectly suited for success in an insane self destructive civilization.

Maybe it is Trump's world and we all live in it.

 

[MikeQ]

Atlantic City is not in NY so your "logic" doesn't follow.

Trump Organization is Headquartered in NY City.

 

[Unpilot]

There is a massive amount of misinformation out there. We all could go back and forth, but never get anywhere. I have a proposal. Since this is the TMC forum, if the Chinese auto tariffs decrease below 15% within the next 6 months then you all have to give Trump credit. No saying, that he had nothing to do with it. If the tariffs increase over 15%, then I will concede that Trump may be the lying conman that you all claim.

I especially would like to see Neroden confess that Trump may be a better businessman than what he claims, if tariffs decrease. The statement that he could have just invested his dad’s fortunes in the S&P 500 particularly does not hold water.

Did he declare bankruptcy multiple times or is that miss information?
Did he try and sell trump university as a great opportunity or is that miss information?
Not related to business but did he have an affair with a porn star and then try and cover it up or is that miss information?

I have a lot more if you like.

 

[lolachampcar]

His business acumen got him to the point where no decent bank would touch him. Deutsche Bank does do business with Trump. DB also paid a massive fine to the State of New York for Russian money laundering. There is a much larger, perhaps business ending, fine pending with the US Government on that very same money laundering issue. Something like 4BB if memory serves.

Funny how we no longer hear about it under the Trump Admin. If you want to give him credit for something, give him credit for getting the Russians, Cambridge Analytica and Assange to help get him enough votes to get elected. He has then used his position as President to, among other things, delay that Deutsche Bank fine. This is criminal behavior to me and thus not behavior to be admired.

The only saving grace is that we have reasonably strong law enforcement entities that, when backed with the political will, are capable of shining sun on such behavior. Trump should have flown a tad lower, lost the election and started TrumpChannel with all his BS to entertain the 35-40% of the (Midwestern?) population that supports him. Instead, he flew a bit too high, won the election and will likely get his kids thrown in jail. Again, there is no part of that behavior I find admirable but then I'm not salt of the earth Mid-Western. BTW, I used to think Mid-Westerners were immune to snake oil salesmen.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

There is a massive amount of misinformation out there. We all could go back and forth, but never get anywhere. I have a proposal. Since this is the TMC forum, if the Chinese auto tariffs decrease below 15% within the next 6 months then you all have to give Trump credit. No saying, that he had nothing to do with it. If the tariffs increase over 15%, then I will concede that Trump may be the lying conman that you all claim.

I especially would like to see Neroden confess that Trump may be a better businessman than what he claims, if tariffs decrease. The statement that he could have just invested his dad’s fortunes in the S&P 500 particularly does not hold water.

You can't brush away everyone's points with "there's a massive amount of misinformation". That's being lazy, ignorant, and dishonest, and frankly is characteristic of conmen. Is that what you are?