Market politics

[Nuclear Fusion]

It could happen. The pendulum has been swinging widely of late...

He’s probably the favourite for the Dem leadership - just a matter of whether he can beat Trump
I think the focus on socialism for the rich is a clever angle he’s taking
If the economy is doing well (which it probably will be because Trump will lean on the Fed to print money when needed), then Bernie needs to focus on the worsening wealth inequality - that not everyone gets a seat at the dinner table
Bernie would probably reinstitute EV subsidies for American made cars only

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

In the nineteen sixties I asked a psychiatrist whether a troubled friend who was older might benefit from therapy. He said older people benefit more—“They have fewer illusions.”.

I would suggest a psychiatrist from the 1960s would be a borderline phrenologist - there is a reason for the saying “you can’t teach an old dog new tricks” & “a leopard doesn’t change its spots”. A fairly recent peer reviewed study found that people over 70 are significantly less amenable to learning new things. Additionally, Conservative voting is strongly correlated to aging - I can delineate why this is also relevant supported by peer reviewed science, but I don’t know if mods consider that ‘inflammatory trolling’ on this site, despite the evidence

 

[winfield100]

I would suggest a psychiatrist from the 1960s would be a borderline phrenologist - there is a reason for the saying “you can’t teach an old dog new tricks” & “a leopard doesn’t change its spots”. A fairly recent peer reviewed study found that people over 70 are significantly less amenable to learning new things. Additionally, Conservative voting is strongly correlated to aging - I can delineate why this is also relevant supported by peer reviewed science, but I don’t know if mods consider that ‘inflammatory trolling’ on this site, despite the evidence

@Nuclear Fusion
Yes and no
I’m 71, studying quantum physics, 3D printing, etc. I have found reading science fiction has helped a lot, no fear of new stuff, failed a lot, succeeded more.
Lived in future till it red shifted past me about 20 years ago.
Love this punctuated singularity
Not all oldsters are ossified.
Just keep learning, eh

 

[Intl Professor]

I would suggest a psychiatrist from the 1960s would be a borderline phrenologist - there is a reason for the saying “you can’t teach an old dog new tricks” & “a leopard doesn’t change its spots”. A fairly recent peer reviewed study found that people over 70 are significantly less amenable to learning new things. Additionally, Conservative voting is strongly correlated to aging - I can delineate why this is also relevant supported by peer reviewed science, but I don’t know if mods consider that ‘inflammatory trolling’ on this site, despite the evidence

As an earlier phrenologist, the Buddha has said, "reality is perception." As a demi mod, I can say your comment is perfectly acceptable. Off direct topic of investing but you might agree anything which sharpens perception is important for investing in general.

From my own experience we are both right. At 83 and recently diagnosed with another incurable disease that ultimately is fatal I agree that it is hard to learn new things. I would go further, I can't remember how to do old things, like putting on my shoes. I have to invent a new method, like a sock extender, or accept the assistance of my lovely wife with things I can no longer do with finesse. My spelling is worsening as well, saved only by modern technology. You may disagree, but I speak here of illusion, not general mental skill. IMHO these are different.

I consider myself among the luckiest of people. Anything bad for me has been the direct or indirect consequence of my own actions. I had a lot of illusions which have dissolved over time. (Your mileage may vary, and without bumps or hills created by yourself.) Of course I have illusions and I thank you for your obviously superior knowledge of contemporary scientific application of psychiatry. I do have the illusion in my field of political science, that knowledge and application of Western political theory is more useful to understanding what is happening, than predicting the outcome, say, of the 2016 US election. For example, as many have noted here, we have many of the characteristics of Germany in the 1930s.

You may or may not agree that we should avoid illusion in our investing, or even all of life. I feel on safe ground on this but must again say, "not an advice." Socrates would call the last rhetorical device sophistry.

 

[Curt Renz]

I just got off a half-hour phone conversation with my Illinois state representative.

We discussed:
tax credits for purchases of EVs
tax credits for 240-volt outlets installed in older home garages
mandatory 240-volt outlets for brand new home garages
incentives for companies to build charging stations
incentives for Tesla to build a factory in Illinois
autonomous driving regulations
eventually replacing the gasoline tax with alternatives to pay for roadwork

Since Tesla has always been allowed to sell and service in Illinois, there was no need to provide encouragement.

I suggested he test drive a Tesla. He said he will.

One of my state representative's potential election opponents has alerted me to the Clean Energy Jobs Act HB3624, which will shortly come up for a vote in the Illinois legislature. Although my state representative did not mention this, I presume it is why he phoned to question me about EVs.

I have since emailed him to say that my vote in November may depend on how he votes regarding this bill. Any other TMC Illinois residents may want to send their opinion on this matter to their state legislators.

Citizens Utility Board: What is the Clean Energy Jobs Act? – Citizens Utility Board

 

[wdolson]

@Nuclear Fusion
Yes and no
I’m 71, studying quantum physics, 3D printing, etc. I have found reading science fiction has helped a lot, no fear of new stuff, failed a lot, succeeded more.
Lived in future till it red shifted past me about 20 years ago.
Love this punctuated singularity
Not all oldsters are ossified.
Just keep learning, eh

Looking at populations and individuals are two different things. In a large population you can almost always find someone to fit whatever point you're trying to make. When Fox News went looking for a young guy with no disabilities sponging off the government, they managed to find one who was living the life of a surfer bum in Southern California. But if you look at the overall population, the majority of people who are getting some kind of government assistance (beyond the benefits everyone gets like social security in old age), actually do have a legitimate need.

With voting patterns and mental flexibility decreasing with age, there are many outliers who learn their entire lives and there are many who are liberal in old age. A few known on the world stage are Jeremy Corbin, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren. All over 70 and all considered very liberal. I know plenty of older people who learn new things and keep their minds active. My father taught himself Photoshop in his 80s and worked until well into his 80s. He only shut down the business because my mother (who kept the books) was getting to a point where she was making so many mistakes he had to do them over again and he wasn't willing to tell her she was losing it.

But if you look at overall populations, the older people get, the more conservative they tend to become, and the less able they are to learn new things. Though people who keep an active mind tend to live longer.

When life expectancy was going up about 30 years ago McDonnell Douglas got concerned their pension plan was going to go bankrupt. They did a study and found an interesting trend among retirees. The retirees who took retirement as an opportunity to do the things they had been putting off for 30-40 years did tend to live a long time after retirement, but those who just wanted to kick back on the porch and do nothing tended to die off fairly quickly. As most of their retirees were the latter, they concluded their retirement plan was safe.

Anecdotally I've seen the same thing. People I've known who retired and didn't really do much tended to decline and go fairly quickly, but those who stayed active tended to live longer. My father turns 100 in 11 days, though his body is worn out and he probably won't make it far into triple digits.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Looking at populations and individuals are two different things. In a large population you can almost always find someone to fit whatever point you're trying to make. When Fox News went looking for a young guy with no disabilities sponging off the government, they managed to find one who was living the life of a surfer bum in Southern California. But if you look at the overall population, the majority of people who are getting some kind of government assistance (beyond the benefits everyone gets like social security in old age), actually do have a legitimate need.

With voting patterns and mental flexibility decreasing with age, there are many outliers who learn their entire lives and there are many who are liberal in old age. A few known on the world stage are Jeremy Corbin, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren. All over 70 and all considered very liberal. I know plenty of older people who learn new things and keep their minds active. My father taught himself Photoshop in his 80s and worked until well into his 80s. He only shut down the business because my mother (who kept the books) was getting to a point where she was making so many mistakes he had to do them over again and he wasn't willing to tell her she was losing it.

But if you look at overall populations, the older people get, the more conservative they tend to become, and the less able they are to learn new things. Though people who keep an active mind tend to live longer.

When life expectancy was going up about 30 years ago McDonnell Douglas got concerned their pension plan was going to go bankrupt. They did a study and found an interesting trend among retirees. The retirees who took retirement as an opportunity to do the things they had been putting off for 30-40 years did tend to live a long time after retirement, but those who just wanted to kick back on the porch and do nothing tended to die off fairly quickly. As most of their retirees were the latter, they concluded their retirement plan was safe.

Anecdotally I've seen the same thing. People I've known who retired and didn't really do much tended to decline and go fairly quickly, but those who stayed active tended to live longer. My father turns 100 in 11 days, though his body is worn out and he probably won't make it far into triple digits.

Or, more succinctly, ‘the plural of anecdote is not data’

Mod Note: About as instructive as "Sentences are denoted by a period (.) at the end." --Intl Professor

 

[winfield100]

Or, more succinctly, ‘the plural of anecdote is not data’

Mod Note: About as instructive as "Sentences are denoted by a period (.) at the end." --Intl Professor

How many anecdotes do you need before they become data?
Is a sample size of 20 the absolute minimum?

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch - this morning: Trump promises 100,000 new ‘high-paying’ auto jobs — here’s why it’s not that simple

 

[Curt Renz]

Reuters - updated today: U.S. energy secretary hopes Mexico, Canada will help export American coal

 

[pz1975]

Reuters - updated today: U.S. energy secretary hopes Mexico, Canada will help export American coal

BC is Canada's most environmentally friendly province. I would hope and expect my province to stop/fight back against this. BC is the main roadblock against Alberta putting pipelines through to the west coast for its oil.

 

[wdolson]

MarketWatch - this morning: Trump promises 100,000 new ‘high-paying’ auto jobs — here’s why it’s not that simple

I have seen from several sources that outside of China, we have pretty much reached peak car. The vast majority of car purchases or leases in the US and other developed countries have been to replace existing cars for many years and over the last 30 years people have been keeping cars longer. Natural growth of the population has kept the new car market steady, but now because of ride sharing, some people are selling cars and not replacing them. It's only feasible to completely get rid of your car if you live in an urban center right now, but it is causing a drop in car sales and they won't be coming back.

European automakers are laying off employees too. This isn't just an American phenomenon.

On top of that automation has been reducing the labor needed for making cars for many years and that's continuing to happen. Elon jumped the gun with his idea of the fully automated factory, but his idea is just ahead of its time. It will happen.

The legacy automakers are also facing an existential threat from electric cars. Some of them are almost certainly going to go out of business and most are going to have to downsize. This is going to happen around the world. The company I think is in the worst position is Fiat-Chrysler. They are finally starting to electrify, but they are way behind. Toyota doubled down on hydrogen instead of going electric and I think that is going to hurt them. As the world's largest car maker, they have a long ways to fall, but they will probably have to slash workforce and close factories to survive the crunch when nobody wants gas cars anymore.

Tesla is the only car company outside of China that is both growing and making a profit, but they aren't going to absorb all the laid off autoworkers from the other companies and expand their workforce another 100,000.

Reuters - updated today: U.S. energy secretary hopes Mexico, Canada will help export American coal

In the US, thanks to cheap natural gas combined with growth of renewables have made coal a dead industry walking. Coal is on the decline in the rest of the world too. Some countries are still burning it because they have to, Japan increased coal imports after the disaster at Fukoshima. I saw an increase in coal trains going through our town for years afterward. I have seen fewer lately, maybe because Oregon is shutting down the export terminal in Portland for coal?

I expect BC will not support any coal exports from their province which leaves Mexico. There is a port near Tijuana which could become a major coal export facility, but if California doesn't allow coal trains in the state that's going to make it difficult. Most of Mexico's rail network runs north-south though there is rail running more or less parallel to the border from Nogales to Calexico, there is no major rail line connecting Calexico with Tijuana.

The existing ports in Mexico probably don't have any suitable facilities for handling coal and they would probably have to be built. With coal use declining around the world, anybody putting much money into expanding infrastructure to ship coal would probably be wasting their money in the long run. Adapting existing facilities at minimal cost would probably be economically feasible, but building new facilities wouldn't.

 

[DragonWatch]

I offered this in climate change; but this needs to be here too. Especially as I keep looking at premarket green numbers (10Feb20).https://www.washingtonpost.com/magazine/2020/02/03/eco-anxiety-is-overwhelming-kids-wheres-line-between-education-alarmism/?arc404=true

Our psychological fear of life, and the future are driving the herd right off the cliff. We are like the child whose knuckles are turning white with total absolute fear, and the only adult in the room is a seventeen year old girl.

Tesla/Elon is showing us the way. Despite not being the bad guy that all the young want to emulate or cling to, the good can win. I have found my pony in the pile of poo; how long will it take the rest?

 

[Coolio2000]

I have 2 teenagers, 13 and 15, and they never talk about climate change. They’re more concerned about iPhones, internet, and Snapchat. I asked them if they have any friends or know anyone in their grades that have anxiety over climate change, and the answer was no.

Just a data point.

 

[eevee-fan]

I have 2 teenagers, 13 and 15, and they never talk about climate change. They’re more concerned about iPhones, internet, and Snapchat. I asked them if they have any friends or know anyone in their grades that have anxiety over climate change, and the answer was no.

Just a data point.

Now they will google it and next week they will. haha

 

[DragonWatch]

I have 2 teenagers, 13 and 15, and they never talk about climate change. They’re more concerned about iPhones, internet, and Snapchat. I asked them if they have any friends or know anyone in their grades that have anxiety over climate change, and the answer was no.

Just a data point.

My granddaughter when she was three asked her mother, my daughter, when they were going to buy an EV. She will be eleven in May. By the time she was three, we had installed solar panels and were talking of buying our Model X.

Back in the late seventies I endured 114 degree temperatures while training as a newly minted butter bar at Fort Sill, Oklahoma. One of the earliest signs of climate change. No, I was not aware of what was going on with what would someday be called climate change.

During the mid to late eighties I endured fellow officers whispering “the south would rise again.” During my early enlisted years while completing basic training I was asked/chosen to become a chaplains assistant. Later, as an E-4, I was asked to not only run the service like I did every week; I was asked, by my chaplain, to deliver the sermon in June 1970 to the soldiers and their families.

Throughout my life I have faced fear down, did not always win, but where change was receptive I succeeded ~ inside or outside me. Life events shaped me; I have never been one to choose the simple path of life.

There are two key points over the years. My mom should have named me Sue, country western song back in the sixties. And, when you think of Rudolf, just think of my life ~ only difference is, not all the reindeer liked me afterwards, let alone while I performed the task.

 

[Paracelsus]

"While the Democratic National Committee continues to refuse to organize a candidate debate on climate issues, the candidates themselves have taken those issues onto the campaign trail in this first-primary state..............
For three decades in American politics, climate change has been the issue that wasn’t. Even as the temperature steadily rose, and evidence mounted that it was human behavior—and human policies—that were driving this change, candidates mostly deflected. And it wasn’t hard: During the 2016 general election, no journalist even asked the presidential candidates a debate question on the topic,” says McKibben. “But that’s not the case this time. Climate change matters for Democratic voters.”

Climate Is on the Ballot in New Hampshire
.

 

[Dare]

This is a particularly fabulous political ad criticizing the Australian government for their inaction on climate change and commitment to the fossil fuel industry.

NSFW (language)

theJuice on Twitter

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - 26 minutes ago: Trump budget kills loan program sought by EV-maker Lordstown Motors - Electrek

 

[Paracelsus]

Link to the twitter site and short video discussing the bill to ban fracking:

Bernie Sanders on Twitter