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Market to drop 20% in 2014 - Marc Faber

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by fjm9898, Dec 17, 2013.

  1. sleepyhead

    sleepyhead Active Member

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    Bank of America also said 20% drop in 2014. Some other big bank said 20% gain in 2014. Who knows?

    I read an interesting statistic a week or two ago:

    The market is up 27% over trailing twelve months (TTM) and there have been 29 occurences in the past when this happened. In all 29 instances the market ended going up over the next 12 months for an average of 16%.
     
  2. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

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    No, Marc is not a joke. I have known him for over thirty years. He is, in many ways, smarter than I am. He is, in all ways, wealthier than I am. He has one of the best global investment views of our era.

    He also often is wrong. In the long run, all you have to do to be successful is to be wrong ( X amt. invested) fewer times than you are right ( X amt. invested).

    Thirty-second sound snippets, whether regarding investing, news commentary, philosophy or forum postings, are worth less than the paper on which they're printed.
     
  3. fjm9898

    fjm9898 Member

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  4. Robert.Boston

    Robert.Boston Model S VIN P01536

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    I'm mildly bullish on the market overall in 2014, FWIW. My simplistic analysis: interest rates have only one way to go (up), so bonds are a bad buy because their prices will fall during the year, almost surely. People have to put their money somewhere, though, so equities values should remain relatively better buy. I'm worried some by the historically high P/E ratio of the market, but frankly I'm not sure what other good sources of value there are. (Actually, I'm bullish on real estate in select markets.)
     
  5. Plug Me In

    Plug Me In Member

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    I can state that with certainty, at some point in the future, the market will drop. Then it will rise again.

    Now with tongue out of cheek, I am concerned that the stock market is becoming overbought. Interest rates are nil, bond yields nearly so and there aren't really many other places for the average joe to inflation proof his money.
     
  6. 30seconds

    30seconds Active Member

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    the guy has been worse than wrong with his market calls as he also been a heavy proponent of gold. In the last 12 months buying gold (down ~28%) would have put you more than 50% behind the S&P500 (up ~27%).

    needless to say I'm sure he will be right sometime in the future. maybe.
     
  7. Causalien

    Causalien Reaper of Trolls

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    I think it is a very safe comment to make. The market on average drops 20% once a year. The question is, does it drop 20% after a 50% runup? Or does it drop from 0%?
     
  8. AudubonB

    AudubonB Mild-mannered Moderator Lord Vetinari*

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    Don't look for me to defend Marc - all I said was that he's not a joke.

    Subsequent to this first comment of his, though, he now has gone and said that shorting a basket of high-flyers - including Netflix, Facebook....and Tesla..... - is good for a 30% return in 2014. So boo, hiss on that (or FB has got a whale of a long drop ahead of it, which wouldn't cause me to lose any sleep).
     
  9. kenliles

    kenliles Active Member

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    Yeah, agree. Maybe he meant, it would be a 50% return without TSLA. ;) I actually agree with him on decent bet shorting a basket of high flyers! but for that to work! the high flyers have to start gliding back to revenue earth. Tesla doesn't fit that category clearly, where FB, NFLX, AMZN, GOOG might make a better basket IMO

    By the way, I didn't see your comments as a defense for him at all! thought they were dead on. He clearly has a strong following, a mix of success and failure (almost a requirement for strong bear which is a more difficult game to play over time). In my view, his comments and opinion should not be ignored, nor be followed, but simply noted for evaluation against your own individual opinion.
     

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