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Marketing the Electric Car / Crossing the Chasm

Discussion in 'Electric Vehicles' started by doug, Oct 4, 2009.

  1. doug

    doug Administrator / Head Moderator

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    A fairly comprehensive article on the marketing of electric cars:
    Selling the Electric Car - AdWeek
    Reading this article reminded me of this graph:
    800px-Technology-Adoption-Lifecycle.png
     
  2. edo

    edo Member

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    And looking at that graph makes me think that the "Chasm" seems to be approaching fast with the Tesla backlog waning. I hope they survive the jump!
     
  3. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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  4. Alfred

    Alfred Member

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    Marketing Disruptive Technology

    Thanks a lot Doug! I ordered the original reference and will read it. On the possible impact of electric vehicles as disruptive technology a very well made study has just been published by Deutsche Bank (in English). The study should be read in full and not just commentaries based on snippets from the executive summary, copied from other journalists. It is titled: "The Peak Oil Markets". Their scenario is a very favourable backdrop for marketing electric vehicles. With a bit of luck Tesla has fair chances of bridging "the gap".
     
  5. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    Jack Rickard crunches the numbers on the acceptance chasm (bold is mine):

    He does not opine when 6.3M will happen as many have but you really have to have faith to build a new EV and EV related business around that future number. Though a 5M customer base is not a bad niche for some.
     
  6. Norbert

    Norbert TSLA will win

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    I'm sure Nissan is operating with numbers like that, and so is Tesla in its preparations for its third generation car.
     
  7. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    #7 vfx, Jun 18, 2012
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 19, 2012
  8. W.Petefish

    W.Petefish Active Member

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    ... and are quickly moving along to the Early Majority.
     
  9. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    Areas that still have not been offered EVs are still buying but sales are stagnating where EVs are plentiful. Tesla's S will certainly bring a lot of interest but the chasm is wide.
     
  10. Tommy

    Tommy Member

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    Based on the percentage the adoption curve is using, are we not still in the 2.5% Innovators portion? With the issues surrounding the Fisker, A123 and Volt, I can understand the perception that the curve has entered the "Chasm" i.e. "the make or break" of a product. I am pretty sure 16% of the public has not adopted the EV.
     
  11. smorgasbord

    smorgasbord Active Member

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    Most reports say about 13M-14M cars sold in the US last year (that includes light trucks like pickups and SUVs, etc.).

    I think we need to see EV sales of 2M/year in the US before we can say we've crossed the chasm.
     
  12. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    I guess you have to look at the percentage of cars sold in each segment. How many cars in the Nissan Leaf segment sold last year and what percentage of those were Leafs?

    When digital cameras came out there were super high end (Tesla Roadster) scientific imaging cameras and low end 3mb consumer cameras (Thinks). The percentage of total cameras sold, Pro 35mm-semi pro APS, large format and specialized cameras would not be a comparison of like products the new digital cameras were encroaching on.
     
  13. VolkerP

    VolkerP EU Model S P-37

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    There is no single car segment in which EVs can claim 16%. Norway is approaching 5% electric of all new vehicle registrations. Way to go.
     
  14. Discoducky

    Discoducky Active Member

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    As there has been a ton more shall we say 'interesting' posts in the recent bad press, it dawned on me that TM might be nearing the end of the chasm.

    Here's why: We are now seeing more posts from people just getting a taste of the Tesla experience, asking the "new to EV" questions and generally joining the conversation. This is great and I think it is important to note that while there has a been a ton of bad press, we all know that the numbers are still good for the company as a whole. Demand is a difficult beast to tame and then maintain, but the product speaks for itself and TM is doing some very interesting things to meet it head on.

    It's sometimes hard to hear/read people seemingly joining the conversation only from the bad press and to say negative things, but they are joining nonetheless and I'm hoping at least some will bring a fresh perspective from a thoughtful vantage. It is hard to weed out, but due to the large percentage of new posters I'm sure the mod's are a bit more overwhelmed than usual ;) and we might be seeing some of that overspill. Regardless, it shows there is more people willing to join the conversation as they have found this site and that is a good thing.

    As we come through the chasm I would like to point out that the business model must be proven sound in that all aspects of getting the money to refund the development cycle must be attained. I don't claim to know all of this, but do know enough to know that the manufacturing aspect is sound. All data points towards a very sound engineering iteration improvement engine is hard at work tinkering in all the right places. The cars are getting better and my car is holding together very nicely as are others with even more miles than mine.

    Can TM exit the chasm without first introducing and proving demand for the Model X? My gut tells me yes as it would seem that even selling 20K Model S's a year would have proven by demand only. However, you've still gotta make money and refund the development cycle. Is that happening with the X? With GenIII? It would seem so as TM is announcing deals with bottleneck parts and clearly articulating where they see the company heading.

    With the recent bad press I'm again reminded of other evolutionary products (aka the modern smartphone) and the early problems (edge network, massive bills, hardware/software issues), naysayers (large companies writing the technology off) but demand was there, the product was supported, customers were generally happy enough to buy again, the company had enough money, knowledge and stability to make a newer, better model and the rest is history (or most likely in everyone's pocket, everyday and invaluable to those that use them).
     
  15. palmer_md

    palmer_md Member

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    Seems you guys are getting ahead of yourself. 2.5% of vehicle sales just to get out of the innovator stage and the start of early adopter would mean 300,000 EV sales based on 12M sales per year (which just came from the top of my head...I don't know what the exact number is). Were all still innovators here.

    I do agree that Tesla has such a compelling product that they seem to be speeding through this adopter curve, and are picking up customers who would ordinarily not be part of the innovator group, but that does not mean that we have really skipped that step, there are still a lot of people with questions about EV's, but Tesla is making it easier to explain what its all about.
     

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