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Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Before establishing ourselves on the surface of Mars we should establish a space station orbiting Mars and then study Mars intensively using Rovers and other remote controlled technologies. Such a space station, significantly larger than the ISS, should preferrably be assembled outside of Earth's main gravitational field; in orbit or on the moon, and then launched for Mars. Using raw materials from the Moon or from an asteroid would be a very nice proof of concept.
Those interest might want to read the discussion in this thread:
Elon's Mars goal a mistake?
Those interest might want to read the discussion in this thread:
Elon's Mars goal a mistake?
It is definitely feasible to produce O2 on Mars for breathing. It can be made from the CO2 in the Martian atmosphere, or from subsurface water, or other sources. All are in the development stage at this point, but the technical obstacles don't seem impossible to overcome.
Next Mars Rover Will Make Oxygen from CO2
Oxygen-Generating Mars Rover to Bring Colonization Closer
Nasa wants to produce oxygen on Mars using bacteria and algae
NASA-funded research seeks to produce breathable oxygen on Mars
I do not support establishing a moon base before going to Mars, An unneeded step and a very costly expense. Elon is not going to the moon, he considers it a waste. I agree.
Next Mars Rover Will Make Oxygen from CO2
Oxygen-Generating Mars Rover to Bring Colonization Closer
Nasa wants to produce oxygen on Mars using bacteria and algae
NASA-funded research seeks to produce breathable oxygen on Mars
I do not support establishing a moon base before going to Mars, An unneeded step and a very costly expense. Elon is not going to the moon, he considers it a waste. I agree.
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Krugerrand
Meow
I don't think that's how it's going to happen. Initially we'll be satisfied with rovers/satellite data collecting, but not for very long. We're a touch it and see it for ourselves type of species. Many in the species also thrive on risk. The initial group/s of people that go won't be planning on coming back to Earth - ever.
Skotty
2014 S P85 | 2023 F-150L
It will be much easier to explore and do science on Mars with people actually AT mars to eliminate the huge time sink of communication time between Earth and Mars. I guess the question is, does it make more sense for the people at Mars to be in orbit or on the ground?
The Mars rover Curiosity has supposedly only traveled maybe 10 km since it landed in 2012. Traveling that distance takes less than a minute back here on Earth, compared to 4 years (or 2,102,400 minutes) on Mars. Yes, it stops frequently to do science, but at lot of that is because they inch it along slowly, in part because nothing can save it (other than itself) if it gets stuck, and also because it takes between 4 and 21 minutes for a one way communication between Earth and Mars. Imagine how much faster scientists could do stuff if each command took only seconds instead of 15 or so minutes, and they would be also be able to take larger risks if they were on the ground where they could service the equipment. I would guess the bandwidth of data transferred between rovers and other science equipment would be much higher as well when communicating no further than orbit instead of across the solar system.
The Mars rover Curiosity has supposedly only traveled maybe 10 km since it landed in 2012. Traveling that distance takes less than a minute back here on Earth, compared to 4 years (or 2,102,400 minutes) on Mars. Yes, it stops frequently to do science, but at lot of that is because they inch it along slowly, in part because nothing can save it (other than itself) if it gets stuck, and also because it takes between 4 and 21 minutes for a one way communication between Earth and Mars. Imagine how much faster scientists could do stuff if each command took only seconds instead of 15 or so minutes, and they would be also be able to take larger risks if they were on the ground where they could service the equipment. I would guess the bandwidth of data transferred between rovers and other science equipment would be much higher as well when communicating no further than orbit instead of across the solar system.
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glhs272
Unnamed plug faced villian
I think it is worth pointing out that SpaceX will not be getting any government funding for this mission. They will be getting technical advise and access to NASA's deep space network in exchange for EDL data and carrying a few NASA instruments. But no actual funds. I only point this out because it is a new "novel" way of getting things done. SpaceX doesn't need to sit around waiting for or begging congress for taxpayer money. They can still get help from NASA using essentially a "barter" relationship. Very similar to the approach NASA is using with Russia (or was when the shuttle was operating, they are paying for rides now) and other ISS partners. Basically, SpaceX is now in league with Roscosmos, ESA, JAXA, and etc. Significant, I would say. And my guess is this is a pathfinder/precursor to what they plan on doing when they have MCT/BFR operational... "Hey NASA...wanna bum a ride to Mars?"
Everything critical (life support, energy, engines,...) on Mars mission must work 3 years without spare parts from Earth. For Moon base 3 days is enough. That makes an enormous cost difference. Testing equipment on Moon would probably save money! If first mission fails, then going first to Moon will also save time.
Spare part problem applies to humans also. Would you go to Mars without a dentist? How many different specialist are needed? For Moon base: We will send a dentist when he is needed or transport patient to Earth. So Moon base can be much smaller.
Mars base cannot sell anything. It will only consume money. Moon base could also earn money. I don't know if it could make profit. Perhaps when we have bases on Mars, asteroids and perhaps even beyond.
Apollo Moon missions proved two points:
- We can go to the Moon, if we want to.
- Its so expensive, that we don't want to.
I don't want to repeat this with Mars. So most important task is to develop reliable and affordable technology.
Most interesting question is: Is there life on Mars? That must be answered before first human land to the Mars. After that answer is certainly yes.
Don't tell me, tell Elon. He's driving SpaceX's objectives, and he has been clear that he's not going to the moon, he sees no advantage in doing so.
No, that question does not have to be answered before humans land on Mars. In fact, given the very limited capabilities of our remotely operated robotic explorers on Mars, there is no way to satisfactorily answer that question without spending many more tens of billions of dollars on many more robotic missions and many years of searching. Elon isn't going to wait around for an answer to that question. SpaceX is going to Mars, with humans onboard, likely within a decade.
Skotty
2014 S P85 | 2023 F-150L
So...if we really want to teraform Mars, how are we going to thicken the atmosphere? Using the polar caps might help, but how much could that add? If it's not enough, where do we get it from? Does UPS deliver from Venus to Mars? There's a small amount of serious in that question. Would it be possible to transport atmosphere there, perhaps over decades or centuries? Because lets face it. There's a lot of things on Mars we can deal with easily enough, but it's always going to suck there unless we can thicken it's atmosphere to non blood-boiling levels. Wouldn't have to be as dense as Earth, but dense enough to go without pressure suits would be a massive improvement.
Speaking of pressure suits, I could see suits that are form fitting that just kind of squeeze you in like a giant rubber band could be a significant improvement over the marshmallow men pressure suits. They would probably look better, could be easier to work and get around in, and most of all, a small tear might go from being catastrophic to only a mild injury type of problem. Anyone think such suits are being worked on?
The temperature on Mars is actually not that bad if you avoid the extreme cold areas and only go out during the day time. It's cold most of the time, but it's not like you will instantly freeze to death.
Speaking of pressure suits, I could see suits that are form fitting that just kind of squeeze you in like a giant rubber band could be a significant improvement over the marshmallow men pressure suits. They would probably look better, could be easier to work and get around in, and most of all, a small tear might go from being catastrophic to only a mild injury type of problem. Anyone think such suits are being worked on?
The temperature on Mars is actually not that bad if you avoid the extreme cold areas and only go out during the day time. It's cold most of the time, but it's not like you will instantly freeze to death.
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I'm sure there are a number of real scientific papers on the best ways to create an atmosphere. I seem to remember in a hard science fiction book I read that you can drop large ice asteroids on Mars to get an atmosphere started.
It seems to me that before we start putting people on Mars we should take a very good and close look at what, if any, lifeforms are already there. As soon as we start putting more than a very few, very careful scientists on the surface we're going to contaminate it.
There's no rush to put anything like a colony on Mars. We probably can't support one anyway.
There's no rush to put anything like a colony on Mars. We probably can't support one anyway.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Agreed. The question as to whether Mars is sterile or not, and has been or not is vital as it significantly changes the prior probabilities that go in to the Fermi equation.
Simply put: let's hope we don't find signs of life:
http://www.nickbostrom.com/extraterrestrial.pdf
You are welcome to your opinion. Elon disagrees with you. He plans to establish what will ultimately be a self-sustaining human settlement on Mars. That will likely take centuries. He thinks long term.
Can SpaceX really land on Mars? Absolutely, says an engineer who would know
Who knew that SpaceX has been simulating Mars like atmospheric conditions when engines where fired in the Earth's upper atmosphere.
"These test flights were classic SpaceX—flying a primary mission, such as delivering cargo to the International Space Station, but also piggybacking other technology demonstration missions on top of it.
Who knew that SpaceX has been simulating Mars like atmospheric conditions when engines where fired in the Earth's upper atmosphere.
"These test flights were classic SpaceX—flying a primary mission, such as delivering cargo to the International Space Station, but also piggybacking other technology demonstration missions on top of it.
What kind of life? Bacteria? We kill bacteria wherever we find it. If it a unique kind of life form that is microscopic, then sorry, get samples and move on in. Earth is filled with hundreds of billions of different life forms. We aren't trying to preserve our unique bacteria or lower life forms. There is little to no chance there is something higher order running around on Mars. If so, then certainly we work real hard to preserve it as best we can.
I remember Elon saying how he would do it and had to search for it, here ya go!
Elon Musk won't nuke Mars, he'll just give it 2 temporary suns
Actually, I'm very doubtful that Elon can land on Mars without US government approval. That approval has to be contingent on meeting the Outer Space Treaty requirements of not contaminating Mars with lifeforms from Earth. The whole point is that we don't know what's there, bacteria or something completely different, and it's a very important question.
As far as supporting a Mars colony, Elon, much less SpaceX, isn't rich enough to subsidize even a tiny colony for 10 years, never mind a century. I'm extremely doubtful that the US government is going to budget $10B's per year for decades to do it either.
SpaceX could afford a lot if they get into asteroid mining. If it becomes necessary for Elon to do it, I'm sure he and SpaceX would give it a shot.
@RDoc: Never underestimate Elon's determination to achieve his stated goals. SpaceX is on track to generate a very sizable amount of profit annually. Elon has total control over how that profit is spent. It will be spent to achieve SpaceX's stated goal, quote:
SpaceX designs, manufactures and launches advanced rockets and spacecraft. The company was founded in 2002 to revolutionize space technology, with the ultimate goal of enabling people to live on other planets.
Notice it says "live on other planets", not just "explore".
I agree with you that the US government is not going to allocate the funds necessary to establish a human colony on Mars. But Elon intends to use all the resources available to him, including SpaceX profits and whatever profits he realizes from Tesla and SolarCity (both of which are likely to be substantial) to achieve his goals on Mars.
SpaceX designs, manufactures and launches advanced rockets and spacecraft. The company was founded in 2002 to revolutionize space technology, with the ultimate goal of enabling people to live on other planets.
Notice it says "live on other planets", not just "explore".
I agree with you that the US government is not going to allocate the funds necessary to establish a human colony on Mars. But Elon intends to use all the resources available to him, including SpaceX profits and whatever profits he realizes from Tesla and SolarCity (both of which are likely to be substantial) to achieve his goals on Mars.
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