What is the usable capacity of the pre-refresh Model 3? I've seen many say that it's 73.5 kWh?
73.5kWh is very very wrong for pre-refresh Model 3. (Unless you go all the way back to the 2017/2018 RWD before capacity unlock from 310rmi to 325rmi.). However, "usable" capacity is a debatable term - usable (above 0%) was right around that value, as measured on the trip meter for new 2020 AWD vehicles. I prefer not to use that definition of usable though it is a perfectly reasonable one.
The usable (my preferred definition - how much you can get out of it before shutdown) capacity of the pre-refresh Model 3 was 79.5kWh. As per SMT, it was somewhere around 78kWh - you can't directly compare these numbers as the kWh may be "different" (measurement differences). (Showed degradation below 77.6kWh for 2020, and below 76kWh for 2018/2019.)
The new 2021 US AWD Model 3 had 78.6kWh in the EPA test (but we have just one data point and there is variability so this could have been an outlier on the low side). Per SMT I would expect it to show about 78kWh when new (I have not seen such info yet). It seems the degradation threshold is still around 77.6 or 77.7kWh; need more data to be sure. (347rmi*139Wh/rkm*1.6093rkm/mi = 77.6kWh)
So to first order, for now, it doesn't look like there is any capacity change on the AWD from 2020 to 2021.
The new 2021 US Performance Model 3 had about 80.8kWh in the EPA test. I expect it to show about 79.5kWh in SMT when new. No data yet. This is way above anything we have seen in the EPA test before, so it's very likely the new denser cells are included in packs in the Performance vehicles. And there may be more to unlock still; I imagine Tesla is being conservative.
Also wondering, what kind of miles I should expect to see on delivery day at 90% (if this is how much they charge to).
Looks like right now (with limited information) they are charging to 347. I expect this to change to 353 at some point soon (after a software update to change the constant - not increase capacity - but we'll see), for new vehicles. Vehicles already delivered may never show 353 even after the update because of capacity loss between now and whenever this hypothetical software update occurs. We'll see what happens. It's normal for (eventually) the constant to be set such that when the vehicle battery is relatively new, it shows the EPA range (in this case 353 rated miles). But we also had a similar situation a year ago where the 2020 vehicles briefly showed 310 rated miles at full charge rather than 322. The software update changed the constant and aligned the numbers (no capacity change).
A lot of moving pieces here so it's also possible there could be a small capacity unlock which gives the 353 rated miles in addition to the constant change. We're currently at a ~2% discrepancy.