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MASTER THREAD: FSD Subscription Available 16 Jul 2021

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Im really having to rethink my FSD $10,000 option on my MY order. Originally my thoughts were:
A I'd never pay for a subscription - I don't like monthly payments.
B. looking at the many you tube videos that show FSD beta testers driving around town in the rain, at night, making unprotected left turns etc. with next to no interventions is compelling and that the button for FSD payees to turn it on was just around the corner.
C. considering B. above it would be good for resell.
D. the closer FSD comes to reality the price for either the subscription or the up front $10,000 would really sky rocket.

Now that y'all are telling me that previous up front FSD payers have to pay to get a new CPU installed in oder to have FSD .
And that even existing and new orders may wind up having to get yet another CPU upgrade before FSD can be fully operational.
Sellers will not recoup that much of their $10,000.

So for $10,000 what do I get right now? auto Lane change, off ramp and traffic light and stop sign recognition. Does it stop for traffic lights?
Maybe I'll know more before I have to take delivery.
 
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Now that y'all are telling me that previous up front FSD payers have to pay to get a new CPU installed in oder to have FSD .
No, that's not the case. If you buy FSD upfront you get free computer upgrades (which likely applies to HW4 also when it comes out). The people who have to shell out $1500 are older buyers with HW2.5 that did not buy the FSD option, but want access to the $200 per month subscription.
And that even existing and new orders may wind up having to get yet another CPU upgrade before FSD can be fully operational.
Sellers will not recoup that much of their $10,000.
If all you want are the features show in FSD Beta, it'll likely be fine with HW3. And even if not, precedent has shown Tesla will retrofit whatever hardware necessary if you spend that $10k.
So for $10,000 what do I get right now? auto Lane change, off ramp and traffic light and stop sign recognition. Does it stop for traffic lights?
Maybe I'll know more before I have to take delivery.
I had a FSD trial for 3 months and it does stop for traffic lights (you'll also need to confirm for greens for it to drive past them). There's more details here, but you should check your order page, which has the most up to date info on which of the features your car actually includes (I suggest taking screen shots as Tesla may change things).
Autopilot and Full Self-Driving Capability
You should also check out the manual page 99 (for traffic light feature, but other features are also described in other pages):
https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/model_y_owners_manual_north_america_en.pdf
 
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Fred rumormongered this factoid a year ago.

I mean, plus Elon literally said it on stage in 2019.


1:43:20 in the video.

Elon Musk said:
it'll be at least 3 times better than the current system..it's about 2 years away

It's been a little more than 2 years since he said it, so the idea it'll be going to production later this year fits pretty well with what we already knew.
 
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By then it’ll be beta v69, cost $20k, Cybertruck will be out, and 4680 cells will be in use.
C
Im really having to rethink my FSD $10,000 option on my MY order. Originally my thoughts were:
A I'd never pay for a subscription - I don't like monthly payments.
B. looking at the many you tube videos that show FSD beta testers driving around town in the rain, at night, making unprotected left turns etc. with next to no interventions is compelling and that the button for FSD payees to turn it on was just around the corner.
C. considering B. above it would be good for resell.
D. the closer FSD comes to reality the price for either the subscription or the up front $10,000 would really sky rocket.

Now that y'all are telling me that previous up front FSD payers have to pay to get a new CPU installed in oder to have FSD .
And that even existing and new orders may wind up having to get yet another CPU upgrade before FSD can be fully operational.
Sellers will not recoup that much of their $10,000.

So for $10,000 what do I get right now? auto Lane change, off ramp and traffic light and stop sign recognition. Does it stop for traffic lights?
Maybe I'll know more before I have to take delivery.
it stops for lights, yes.
 
It's worth it for people who might only want it for a road trip once or twice a year.... or for people who want to try it out for a month to decide if it's worth $10,000... or for people who get a new car every 2-3 years.

I tell myself every time, "I will keep this for 5-7 years."

Longest I have ever owned a car was just over 2... i have attachment problems.
 
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Nope, it's month by month... though you don't get a refund if you cancel in the middle of a month for the unused 2 weeks or anything.

4+ year break even for newer cars (with HW3).... which seems reasonable- that's still less time than the average American owns a new car for so it still will cost the owner more vs buying FSD but not for a good while.

The HW2.5 owners should've paid the 2-3k to buy FSD when they got the car.... with the $1500 needed HW upgrade the subscription ends up costing them more than if they'd just bought it in full originally after only 5-15 months.
Your "break even analysis" has a fundamental flaw. It assumes $10k was a reasonable price for what you got - it is/was is NOT. Tesla costs on the software is the same whether they make it for 1 car or 1 millions cars. If they are making it for a million cars, it should be LESS expensive, NOT more. I paid $6k for FSD at the end of 2019. I would not pay $10k today for it - or $199 per month. Apple used to charge for software updates - now they are free. If or when Tesla actually makes a car with FSD - level 5 - they might be able to talk about a subscription. For now it is not worth the price of admission.
 
I mean, plus Elon literally said it on stage in 2019.


1:43:20 in the video.



It's been a little more than 2 years since he said it, so the idea it'll be going to production later this year fits pretty well with what we already knew.
Oh joy. Now there will be threads with posts from potential Tesla buyers delaying their purchase until HW4 is released. Maybe the cars will also have the advanced 4D radar:


But seriously, with the present chip shortage, is it really likely that Tesla will start producing cars with HW4 in 2021 Q4?
 
C

it stops for lights, yes.
Given that I have EAP and received H/W3 via the MCU2 upgrade, I am still not ready to cough up $99/month for the additional feature of the car to stop at lights. In fact, I am still waiting on the coast-to-coast autonomous demo Elon promised would happen by the end of 2017. That hasn't happened yet so I have little hope of FSD glory before I sell my car in about 4 years when the battery and drive unit warranty expires.
 
Actually, it is 100% miss, not hit or miss. No Tesla comes with cross traffic alert. You are expected to back into parking spaces apparently according to other members of this forum.

Keith
Well, rxlawdude says that they do come with rear cross traffic alert. At least his thumbs down says that. I am pretty sure (100% sure) that he is wrong. Is there a way to thumbs down his thumbs down? Or would that result a thumbs down inception situation?

Keith
 
If PRIVATE used car sales were equally high, then that is what the used car is actually worth since it means you can actually sell the car that high.

Since obviously people are paying that for them. Otherwise the prices would get lowered.

So I'm unsure of what your actual complaint is and why you originally claimed the incredibly high resale value of Teslas wasn't real.

I never said the resale value isn't real, I said that it is the result of Tesla artificially pumping up resale value by adding FSD to all of it's used inventory cars. You can try and twist that sentence all you like but it is in pretty simple terms, understandable to most people. My question is, will Tesla continue to add FSD to used inventory cars, and if not how will that affect used Tesla prices AFTER the chip shortage is resolved.

Now, the fact that you can sell your used Tesla to any one of a number of mass market car retailers for MORE than Tesla will offer you on trade in indicates to me that TESLA thinks used Tesla's on the open market are currently over valued... think about that one. I also wonder if this is because they have a plan in place to stop putting FSD on used inventory Tesla's and they know the effect it will have on the used market.

Keith
 
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Teslas value of FSD is quite different from the rest of the industry. Dont believe me? Go to KBB.com (or pretty much an online price value tool) and configure pricing for a used Tesla (any year). Include FSD. Now value the same car, with without FSD. The difference isnt $10k...or even close

And when you go to buy or sell a Tesla on the open market this shows as well. Sell a car without FSD and a nearly identical car with FSD and they will have nearly the same price on the open market... and it will be near the price of a nearly identical car with FSD from Tesla used car inventory.... and that will be very near the price of an identical brand new car without FSD.

Keith
 
About City Driving using FSD, I still think that there is a need to have cameras placed at the front of the car looking perpendicularly at the left and the right.

The issue is when you are at an intersection without traffic light, when there are cars, in particular big SUVs or Pickup trucks,
parked on the side of the road at an intersection, the wide angle camera on the B pillar on each side of the car cannot see the traffic coming,
on your left or on your right, unless you move the front of your car enough in the intersection to see the traffic coming.

But doing so, the front of your car is inside the lane of the traffic, forcing other cars to avoid you, which can be dangerous for bicycles,
or when a big truck or bus is coming forcing those or to stop or to change lane to avoid your car.

Making a left turn at an intersection, or even making a right turn into the traffic when exiting from a parking lot,
is already challenging for a human person, I am skeptical that FSD could safely works without additional cameras at each corners of the car.

This is way off topic since it is really a FSD Beta concern... but on that topic I have to say the FSD Beta video's I have seen are down right terrifying. If I were living in a city where I knew a bunch of people with FSD Beta were driving I would avoid all other Tesla's on the road out of fear they were using FSD Beta. FSD Beta on the current hardware will never be more than a "high functioning" SAE level 2 system, or possibly with years more development SAE level 3. I expect them to release it as a high functioning SAE level 2 system and move on to.... HW4!!!

What you are asking for, is HW4 to be developed and released... then all us HW3 people can complain that we can't use subscription FSD Beta (it will just be called FSD at that time) without paying for the hardware upgrade :D

Keith
 
hardware as a service, software as a service (feature rental), battery swap. these are all 'things' that make sense for a rapidly changing platform such as the modern EV.

and really, it makes sense for vendors to always install the latest hw and keep it up to date so that users can 'install' (unlock) sw features on-demand.

this is kind of BS, that they are making customers pay for hardware upgrades. they are testing their customers and they have a captive base, but I dont think this model will last for a long time.

again, not the longest window before real competition starts to make tesla nervous. they should make the best of that window while they can. after that, they'll still be good, but they wont be the only game in town, and that is what keeps companies 'honest'.
 
LOL... no... it's a subscription, not rent-to-own.





It's not worth it for those people.

It's worth it for people who might only want it for a road trip once or twice a year.... or for people who want to try it out for a month to decide if it's worth $10,000... or for people who get a new car every 2-3 years.
The only issue I can see is in order to "try it" unless you have HW3, it's going to cost you $1,500 for the computer upgrade.
 
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hardware as a service, software as a service (feature rental), battery swap. these are all 'things' that make sense for a rapidly changing platform such as the modern EV.

and really, it makes sense for vendors to always install the latest hw and keep it up to date so that users can 'install' (unlock) sw features on-demand.

this is kind of BS, that they are making customers pay for hardware upgrades. they are testing their customers and they have a captive base, but I dont think this model will last for a long time.

again, not the longest window before real competition starts to make tesla nervous. they should make the best of that window while they can. after that, they'll still be good, but they wont be the only game in town, and that is what keeps companies 'honest'.
If they didn't charge for the hardware I'd pay $99, get HW3, and then cancel because I suspect there will soon be improvements to Autopilot that are only available for HW3. It seems like they'd get more takers if the $1500 also gave you 15 "free" months of FSD (for EAP owners). I wouldn't be surprised if they switch to that later after the demand for $1500 HW3 upgrades dries up.
 
This is way off topic since it is really a FSD Beta concern... but on that topic I have to say the FSD Beta video's I have seen are down right terrifying. If I were living in a city where I knew a bunch of people with FSD Beta were driving I would avoid all other Tesla's on the road out of fear they were using FSD Beta. FSD Beta on the current hardware will never be more than a "high functioning" SAE level 2 system, or possibly with years more development SAE level 3. I expect them to release it as a high functioning SAE level 2 system and move on to.... HW4!!!

What you are asking for, is HW4 to be developed and released... then all us HW3 people can complain that we can't use subscription FSD Beta (it will just be called FSD at that time) without paying for the hardware upgrade :D

Keith
Or... Tesla pulls the rug out, and only new model year cars are compatible with HW4+... making everyone rush to buy the new iTesla every 6 months... which could potentially devalue existing used Teslas drastically, unless the new ones were so overpriced the entire car itself was a $3~500/month subscription and no one could afford to own it...
 
Well, rxlawdude says that they do come with rear cross traffic alert. At least his thumbs down says that. I am pretty sure (100% sure) that he is wrong. Is there a way to thumbs down his thumbs down? Or would that result a thumbs down inception situation?

Keith

Tesla doesn't currently have rear cross traffic alert.

At one point Elon tweeted that he'll consider adding it, but I haven't heard anything about it since that tweet.

I wouldn't pay much attention to thumbs down without a response on something that is totally black and white. It either has cross traffic alerts or it doesn't.