I never said the resale value isn't real, I said that it is the result of Tesla artificially pumping up resale value by adding FSD to all of it's used inventory cars. You can try and twist that sentence all you like but it is in pretty simple terms, understandable to most people.
Also you-
And when you go to buy or sell a Tesla on the open market this shows as well. Sell a car without FSD and a nearly identical car with FSD and they will have nearly the same price on the open market... and it will be near the price of a nearly identical car with FSD from Tesla used car inventory....
So.... somehow they're "artificially pumping up resale" by adding a feature you just admitted doesn't make the price any different from a car WITHOUT that feature?
You might want to....rethink your argument.
Your "break even analysis" has a fundamental flaw. It assumes $10k was a reasonable price for what you got
No, it doesn't.
That's not how "break even analysis" works.
You compare the different methods to pay for something, over the periods of time you might have the something, and run the math.
What the "something" is doesn't change the math.
- it is/was is NOT. Tesla costs on the software is the same whether they make it for 1 car or 1 millions cars.
This, too, is fundamentally untrue since you have to amortize development costs.
If they are making it for a million cars, it should be LESS expensive, NOT more.
This is only accurate if it's a static product no further work is going into.
Since that's not the case it's a lot more complex than that. Right now they've having to insure each update works across multiple models- each of which has multiple configs including entirely different driving computer (and media computer for some cars) architectures- with a slew of different features that all need to work correctly with each update.
The MORE configs you add the more development and testing cost too- which balances against the amortizing by those who take the software.
Unlike the simple break even this is much more complex math.
I paid $6k for FSD at the end of 2019. I would not pay $10k today for it - or $199 per month. Apple used to charge for software updates - now they are free. If or when Tesla actually makes a car with FSD - level 5 - they might be able to talk about a subscription. For now it is not worth the price of admission.
Obviously it WAS worth 6k to you. Others would've told YOU it wasn't worth the price of admission THEN.
Today it's worth 10k to SOME people-- and obviously not to others.
The subscription just provides ANOTHER option to folks.
If you don't like it- don't buy it.
But more choices is good.
Oh joy. Now there will be threads with posts from potential Tesla buyers delaying their purchase until HW4 is released.
They're sold out on cars months in advance at this point- and most buyers have no idea WTF HW3 or HW4 is, so I doubt it'd make a material difference.
But seriously, with the present chip shortage, is it really likely that Tesla will start producing cars with HW4 in 2021 Q4?
Yes?
There's a number of causes of the shortage-- one of the big ones in the car industry though was legacy auto cancelling a lot of orders during the pandemic thus giving up space in the queue at chip fabs....which then went to someone else, so when the car makers came back they had to go to the back of the line.
AFAIK Tesla never cancelled orders. And they certainly wouldn't cancelled fab queue space for a NEW chip they themselves had developed. Plus, relatively to say the amount of fab space AMD needs or something Teslas needs are relatively modest.
Other slowdowns in the chain might bump it back another quarter or something but I wouldn't expect any major delays.
Same situation for me. $4,500 to get the option for setting up subscription. If not mistaken, only cars made for 3-4 months are in this situation (late 2018 early 2019)?
Longer than that.
For the 3, it's all cars made in 2017 (this is only like 2000 cars) plus all cars in 2018, plus all cars for the first few months of 2019.
For S/X it's all cars made since ~November 2016 (older cars are AP1 or no AP and have no upgrade path period) through the first few months of 2019.
(minus any of the above who paid for FSD as a purchase and got a free HW3 upgrade)
THAT said... the S/X cars that have MCU1 (which is most of those) have a better upgrade path-- $2000 gets them a next-gen MCU that happens to also come with HW3.
And as a % of the total fleet cars that only have the $1500 HW3 option are likely a single-digit percent of said fleet
Or... Tesla pulls the rug out, and only new model year cars are compatible with HW4+... making everyone rush to buy the new iTesla every 6 months... which could potentially devalue existing used Teslas drastically, unless the new ones were so overpriced the entire car itself was a $3~500/month subscription and no one could afford to own it...
They can't.
Well, I mean they CAN- but they'd owe full FSD refunds to a pretty significant number of folks.
Also, AP1 cars, which have MUCH MUCH less capable HW than the AP2 cars did, didn't crater in value for resale when AP2 came out, so I wouldn't worry much there either.
Teslas have historically had -way- better resale than anything comparable.
