I don’t know if you are doing this on purpose to score “internet points” or if you just don’t realize it, but responses like this come off very abrasive.
My apologies if I gave offense... this thread has had...perhaps more than its fair number of folks trying to expert when they probably should not. That said, you make some totally fair points, but also some I think you're still significantly overestimating the challenge of--- specifically:
Of course I am aware that the Model 3 and Y don’t use conventional fuses. I was using the word “fuses” as a generic term for power supply to individual circuits. Something that would be required for any new sensors in the car. If I was trying to score some internet points, I might suggest you read up on how Model S and Model X work, where one thing you might learn is that before the recent redesign those models both used traditional automotive fuses. I’m sure you will agree that the owners of those cars might also like to have this future new system installed into their cars, too. You know, since they, too, bought cars with all the required hardware for FSD.
Yup. Retrofits on older S/X would be harder.
But then that's always been the case (for example it took extra work to get HW3 to work properly with the older cameras (different color filters) on HW2 S/X vehicles... (3s and Ys never came with those).
And those cars had a LOT more profit built into them, but sold in relatively low numbers- so I don't think this would be cost prohibitive for Tesla on those.
But since you are aware that the Model 3/Y don’t use traditional automotive fuses, then that would lead you to consider that if Tesla were to retrofit these new sensors into existing cars, then Tesla would need to design a new custom circuit board for these additional “fuse-like” circuits that will need to be added in.
I'm not sure that's entirely accurate.... Tesla has added a number of relatively low-draw 12v items to their cars without needing redesigns of the MOSFET control stuff.... adding a heated steering wheel to the 3/Y for example... or heated radar to the Y.
I don't see why adding a couple of small low-power cameras couldn't be handled similarly.
So now we are up to:
New Sensors
New housings for said sensors
New HW4 board
All of these wouldn't be "needed for retrofits" they'd be needed for
all new cars since the new cars would need those same parts.
So there's nothing 'extra' to retrofit old cars here, assuming the sensor housings are going into say, the front fender panels... you just replace the panels with the ones already going into new cars with the housing accommodated (and also the wiring channel handily enough!)--- 100% off the shelf parts from the NEW car parts bins.
New “fuse” board (see how that works as an effective shorthand?)
Again they've added new parts without needing any vast reworks here.... folks have even swapped in the newer, higher-powered, USB-C center consoles to their Teslas without needing to touch this.
Presumably on the MOSFET cars anyway (which are the VAST majority of the cars in question) there's already spare capacity to handle this work.
Well, a little bit.. from the sensors into the existing harness anyway (which already runs to the front fenders for the side-rear-view cams)-- I'd expect they can tap in there-- and given the higher bandwidth connections Tesla has added to the MCU/Driving computer WITHOUT upgrading the rest of the harness, it certainly suggests existing wiring is capable of supplying a lot more to the computers (otherwise why any need to upgrade the computer connects?)
And, probably most importantly, the labor required to remove old parts and install new parts. In each car.
This doesn't seem super high.
Especially if we assume they're ALREADY going to need to put HW4 in these cars free as they did HW3.
So if they're swapping using factory-new parts (same as would go on new cars) I doubt it'd add more than a couple hours to the HW4 retrofit.
Even more reason to only be including free HW upgrades for those who paid full price for FSD eh?
Repeat above list, with appropriate changes, for Model S and X. Original versions, “refreshed” versions, and the latest versions just introduced this year.
Pre-original-refresh versions are irrelevant-- the refresh happened before AP2 so they're not being upgraded to anything. And there's no "pre-refresh" X at all.
Now the post-refresh, Pre-Plaid Model S... THAT might matter, but even then the only thing that might change here is they couldn't use "new" fenders like they could on 3/Y. (or maybe they can- not actually sure).... But again these represent a tiny % of the fleet and were much higher margin cars to absorb some more custom cost.
Now, I’m sure someone could take on this project and do the whole thing themselves. We can watch any car show on TV over the weekend to see that it is possible. But I think it is unlikely that Tesla will take on such a task.
Legally, their only options would be that, or a full refund plus interest to all impacted FSD buyers.
Given it'd largely involve off-the-shelf parts (from new assembly) I'd be surprised if they can't do the retrofits significantly cheaper- but if I'm wrong then refund's it'll be.
(again all this premised on them officially concluding they can't hit L4 FSD without more sensors).
As an example, we can look at all of the AP1 customers who were left behind at the introduction of AP2. The retrofit job for those cars wouldn’t be any more difficult than what you propose for the theoretical HW4 retrofit.
Yes... it would.... Massively so.
There was NO camera wiring anywhere on either side of the entire car, so nothing for just 2 extras to tap into... and absolutely no upgrade capacity on even the driving computer in those vehicles.
Further, FSD did not exist for those cars. There was no substantive part-of-the-sale promise ever made to those folks to provide the kinds of capabilities needing HW2+... not so today with the current FSD buyers (pre march 2019 anyway).
Also relevant- Tesla didn't have Q after Q of profit AND like 17 billion dollars in cash in the bank at the time- indeed until after the Model 3 ramp they were perpetually on the verge of going broke... not so today.
While a funny visualization glitch- you might notice the car
does not slow down so it doesn't genuinely believe that's a yellow light as far as driving decisions are concerned.
(otherwise you'd see a "slowing down for traffic control in X feet" message, as well as dropping speed)
So our March 2017 build S75D came with AP2, with “EAP” - something that’s not even offered anymore - but no FSD.
Less than a year ago, I had the MCU1 replaced with MCU2.
From what I can tell on the app, if I subscribe to the so-called Full Self-Driving Capability, the only thing I will gain is “Traffic Light and Stop Sign Control.” My car with plain ole EAP already does the other things - NoAP, Auto Lane Change, Autopark, Summon, etc. Paying $99 a month for the car to know what to do at traffic lights doesn’t seem like such a great deal to me.
It's not.
And yes that's the only post-EAP feature of FSD today.
Note that for everyone who did not buy EAP (which they stopped selling over 2 years ago now), the only way to get all the features you DID get with EAP is... buy FSD.
That said- once city street driving is in wide release (which may be soon, or....well, it's been "coming later this year" since 2019 so....) there'd be a more substantive reason for EAP owners to consider it.
