MASTER THREAD: FSD Subscription Available 16 Jul 2021

[rijc99]

I mean, presumably you just took a cheap loan for the car PLUS FSD.

Paying cash makes no sense at all when you can get 2% car loans.

In which case you had more to invest, and especially after the 4 years remain ahead of paying the subscription with your own money instead of someone elses.

I don’t know if FSD factors in if you trade to Tesla. Maybe I’ll would have ended up eating the full cost at the end of year two.

But in my case I didn’t buy FSD at time of purchase so my option is 10k or subscription so I can’t retroactively add it to my loan.

 

[Knightshade]

I don’t know if FSD factors in if you trade to Tesla. Maybe I’ll would have ended up eating the full cost at the end of year two.

But in my case I didn’t buy FSD at time of purchase so my option is 10k or subscription so I can’t retroactively add it to my loan.

If you only keep cars for 2 years (and trade em in to dealers when you get rid of them rather than private sale) you're not even remotely a person who cares about the most cost-efficient return on investment in vehicles, so it's a bit weird you'd pretend that was important to you suddenly with the subscription thing.

Probably a lease would've made more sense for you (since you only pay a portion of FSD there too- AND you typically get a lower payment on the car itself).

 

[rijc99]

If you only keep cars for 2 years (and trade em in to dealers when you get rid of them rather than private sale) you're not even remotely a person who cares about the most cost-efficient return on investment in vehicles, so it's a bit weird you'd pretend that was important to you suddenly with the subscription thing.

Probably a lease would've made more sense for you (since you only pay a portion of FSD there too- AND you typically get a lower payment on the car itself).

 

[raptor5244]

I don’t know if FSD factors in if you trade to Tesla. Maybe I’ll would have ended up eating the full cost at the end of year two.

But in my case I didn’t buy FSD at time of purchase so my option is 10k or subscription so I can’t retroactively add it to my loan.

When I sold my Model 3 last month Carvana, Carmax and Vroom only offered $500 more if the car had FSD. I wound up selling to Carmax, they were only interested if it had the Full Self Driving computer (HW3). Dealers are not going to pay much for software that is not finished yet, you would need to find a buyer who wants FSD. I think subscription is the smart move for now with this type of software. IMO, the price of this subscription will have to come down in price. $200 a month is pretty steep for what you get.

 

[Bladerskb]

Given those companies are in China, where the western media doesn't really browse the forums (nor can most of us here easily know how to read or parse it) we don't know of all the issues that they may have undergone. However, just from a quick search, I found a major problem with XPeng's OTAs:

Also problems with the cars:

Google Translate
I'm sure it'll be easier to find more if the reporting and the forums are in our native language.

Also, I noticed from the article, the XPeng G3 only sold 15,124 units in 2019 (after launching in December 2018). People gave Ford plenty of grief for the slow rollout of the Mach-E, but in the 6 months of this year they already sold 12,975 units, so they will significantly surpass 15k this year fairly easily.
Ford Mustang Mach E Sales Figures

Nio didn't seem a whole lot better. They launched the ES8 at end of June 2018. Throughout 2018 they were in the headlines of major websites for frequent software problems. Don't know if it was lost in translation, but it also seems their updates can fail (the same problem Ford is having!) Their updates didn't switch to adding new functions until around June of 2019. They didn't even have ACC until 10 months after launch! It would seem a lot of the initial updates is more like the infotainment updates that some automakers count as "OTA" (which many "traditional automakers" have done years ago) but are much simpler to implement than things that might affect the drivetrain and other parts outside the infotainment system. (Note the bold parts below are not my emphasis, it was the article author's)

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/103324454

I don't see any evidence they had an easy time developing/launching their software (even if they set up their cars to support OTAs from the founding of their companies).

This is completely false. The OTA experience from NIO and Xpeng have been 1000x better than Tesla. Stop letting your love for Tesla cloud your judgment.
There are thousands of issues with Tesla's OTA update. AP didn't show up until over 1 year after Tesla launch. Stop misrepresenting companies and spreading nonesense. There are thousands of posts about OTA crashes and system crashes of Tesla.
Imagine if i selected one to disparage the entire company.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

The OTA experience from NIO and Xpeng have been 1000x better than Tesla. Stop letting your love for Tesla cloud your judgment.

I tend to agree with 99% of what you say,

But, this one is a bit comical because you state this absurd number with nothing to back up and then you say not to let your love for Tesla cloud your judgement.

You state this absurd number because you yourself are allowing your hate for Tesla to cloud your judgement.

The vast majority of owners likely have no issues with the OTA. In fact my biggest gripe is the crap release notes. Its like 5 updates in a row of "bug fixes and cold weather enhancements".

If you weren't so anti-Tesla you would acknowledge that its pretty impressive for Tesla to manage upgrades of such a massive amount of vehicles with different hardware. Even VW admits how far ahead Tesla is on the SW/OTA update perspective.

I say this not out of love for Tesla, but a simple acknowledgement of how impressive their OTA have been for my 6 years of ownership. The amount of functionality added over the years is pretty impressive. Now I do think they're is a darker side of making absurd "we'll just do it in SW" promises that never come.

 

[stopcrazypp]

This is completely false. The OTA experience from NIO and Xpeng have been 1000x better than Tesla. Stop letting your love for Tesla cloud your judgment.
There are thousands of issues with Tesla's OTA update. AP didn't show up until over 1 year after Tesla launch. Stop misrepresenting companies and spreading nonesense. There are thousands of posts about OTA crashes and system crashes of Tesla.
Imagine if i selected one to disparage the entire company.

When did I say Tesla didn't have problems with their updates (especially in the first few months of OTA)? All I'm pointing out are clear counterexamples to your statement here that doing OTAs "easy" for the two companies given they seem to have had plenty of the same teething problems that Ford is having. That was easy to find in just a few minutes of google. I'm sure people who actually own a Xpeng or Nio and speak the language know even better all the issues with it (there's probably some Chinese language forums or social media somewhere that have such discussions), but it doesn't sound like they had an easy time just from the articles I found. Note I didn't even point out one of the most embarrassing incidents (which was reported by the western media) for Nio's OTA process where one of their cars got stuck on a Beijing street (where NIO shared quite a bit of the blame in failure of UI), but it's a bit off topic.

If you have any evidence that the articles I posted is "false" go right ahead and post articles that show it as such. But just your statement that their experience is "1000x better than Tesla" is not evidence of anything nor is it really related to question of if getting OTAs working well is "easy" (especially OTAs that actually affect the drivetrain, not just the infotainment, which plenty of automakers have done in the past and made much more standardized with Android Auto and Car Play).

EV startups like Xpeng, NIO, etc. Practically all of them have been doing Over the air firmware updates since their very launch, So yes all this software stuff is easy. Just because traditional autos with no background in software, no software structure, no software minded people in leadership are struggling doesn't make it hard. Its quite easy.

 

[TSteve]

So, this is a long thread. Apologies if this has been asked before, but could Tesla switch to a subscription only model for FSD? Buying a new car might include 6 months to a year (non transferable, of course).

 

[gearchruncher]

So, this is a long thread. Apologies if this has been asked before, but could Tesla switch to a subscription only model for FSD? Buying a new car might include 6 months to a year (non transferable, of course).

Tesla already has FSD subscriptions, started a few months ago.
Tesla also already did "free" FSD demos before, before they had subs. You don't need a sub to do a demo, since they can turn FSD on/off for a car whenever they want.

So to move to an all sub model, they would need to refund 5 years of FSD purchases. Which would make lots of people very happy, and some very sad, and would make Tesla's books look really bad for a while until they actually had FSD that was worth $7 a day. Tesla's refusal to offer refunds on FSD purchases tells you all you need to know.

If the first 6-12 months was free, why would it need to be non-transferrable?

 

[TSteve]

Tesla already has FSD subscriptions, started a few months ago.
Tesla also already did "free" FSD demos before, before they had subs. You don't need a sub to do a demo, since they can turn FSD on/off for a car whenever they want.

So to move to an all sub model, they would need to refund 5 years of FSD purchases. Which would make lots of people very happy, and some very sad, and would make Tesla's books look really bad for a while until they actually had FSD that was worth $7 a day. Tesla's refusal to offer refunds on FSD purchases tells you all you need to know.

If the first 6-12 months was free, why would it need to be non-transferrable?

I was thinking of a subscription going forward, say in 2022 you could no longer buy FSD for 10k, but could only sign up for the current subscription service. All new cars could come with a short trial so people would get "hooked", but if it were sold before the trial ended it wouldn't transfer to the new owner, or perhaps the new owner just gets a one month trial.

People who spent the money for FSD would have a lifetime subscription for their car and it could continue to transfer as it does currently.

It seems like FSD has a really low uptake, and this could be a way to possibly get more uptake.

 

[Electroman]

I had the FSD subscription for a month and today I cancelled it. Don't think where it is right now it is worth $200 a month.

 

[raptor5244]

I had the FSD subscription for a month and today I cancelled it. Don't think where it is right now it is worth $200 a month.

Based on your experience, what would you pay today? $0, $20, $50?

 

[ScoobyDoo82]

Based on your experience, what would you pay today? $0, $20, $50?

I can’t speak for anybody else.. but I’d gladly pay $10/month for auto lane change and green light chime.

 

[qdeathstar]

I can’t speak for anybody else.. but I’d gladly pay $10/month for auto lane change and green light chime.

Those two features are worth 100/mo imo

 

[ScoobyDoo82]

Based on your experience, what would you pay today? $0, $20, $50?

I can’t speak for anybody else.. but I’d gladly pay $10/month for auto lane change and green light chime in

Those two features are worth 100/mo imo

shhh.. don’t give them any ideas!

 

[Electroman]

I was using Autopilot for many years in my S, and then 3 and now currently using in Y. More than 80% of my drives even in local roads are on AP. Basic AP is fantastic. I have had Navigate on AP on my 3 until I sold it last year and so I am quite familiar with it. So I decided to try out the FSD in my Y, since I badly missed the lane changing capability on my new Y.

After all these years, I was disappointed it is still doing the same mistakes it was doing 2 years ago and has the same rough edges.

- it veers to the right (centering) on a widening lane near an exit. Very annoying to the passengers. FSD didn't fix it.

- stopping on a red light/Stop sign is excellent, and I can see how it can help avoid accidents.

- but this slowing down on a green signal to come to a stop, is just idiotic.

- very slooooww starting from a green light.

- lane changes are still hesitant and not aggressive enough. This annoys other drivers, as they believe they have slowed down and given sufficient space for me to change lane, but this damn autopilot would not move.

So I am not sure what I am getting for $200 a month. Maybe worth $20. I will revisit this when FSD beta is available and try it for a month.

 

[gearchruncher]

It seems like FSD has a really low uptake, and this could be a way to possibly get more uptake.

I don't think a lot of people are going to pay $200 a month for auto lane changes, green light chime and summon. You think more people will pay $7 a day today, given the current features, vs $10k for something that will theoretically work for the life of the car? Subscriptions will just wait to subscribe until it's worth it.

The real way Tesla gets a higher update rate is to actually ship a damn product, and to set the price of that product commensurate with the CURRENT features, not some future promise which is always two weeks away.

 

[THXULTRA]

I don't think a lot of people are going to pay $200 a month for auto lane changes, green light chime and summon. You think more people will pay $7 a day today, given the current features, vs $10k for something that will theoretically work for the life of the car? Subscriptions will just wait to subscribe until it's worth it.

The real way Tesla gets a higher update rate is to actually ship a damn product, and to set the price of that product commensurate with the CURRENT features, not some future promise which is always two weeks away.

I think Tesla should have released enhanced auto pilot as a subscription now that included auto lane change on highways, summon and auto park like they used to offer. Then once auto steer on city streets was stable enough for the public release a Full Self driving tier. Maybe charge $100 a month for enhanced AutoPilot and $200 a month once they have some FSD features for that package. I also think they should allow people that purchased FSD to transfer it to another car until at least some FSD features have been out for a year. Some people purchased FSD back in 2017 and haven't gotten anything for their investment...

 

[gearchruncher]

Some people purchased FSD back in 2017

October 20th, 2016 was the first sale of FSD. Coming up on 5 years.

The $100/$200 thing is exactly what they already have. If you have EAP (which was $5K), then you have auto lane change and summon, and your "FSD" subscription is $100 not $200.

Clearly they think they either:
1) Make more money from only having the $10k/$200 option, and know more of these people would drop to $5k/$100 than is made up from people that don't buy at all at the current prices.
2) Are so fixated on being "close" to "FSD" that they can't show any weakness towards that position, which selling "only" EAP would be.

Personally, I think it's #2. All their actions (even releasing subscriptions at all at the crazy price of $200) are pointed at the idea that real FSD is just around the corner, and backing up all the crazy things and timelines Elon is constantly saying.

 

[mrbulk]

I know how to solve the slow take rate - just let Everybody be FSD Beta testers rather than only the "extremely safe drivers" and adding just one caveat - allow any accidents (since you're supposed to be fully diligent and ready to take over at a moment's notice and all that) and you are banned from FSD for life...

(just kidding of course but there indeed Are other solutions they could try in order to increase the abysmal FSD take rate)...