However, individual owners results may vary.
Did you happen to use ScanMyTesla to look at your capacity when your car was new? Or do you have some links to Model S/X owners who have done this and tracked their capacity over time? It's hard to say just looking at the rated miles whether that will directly correspond to capacity loss, due to a potential top buffer, etc. (Some of these things change over time too.)
It's an open question how the degradation of Model X compares to Model 3, the vehicle that is the subject of this thread.
Here's some representative (????) Model X TeslaFi data (just a few samples, but at least there is not as much selection bias, probably), showing about 3% after 40k miles :
[There is a similar thread in Model 3 area. My son has a model 3 and has lower range than most so I've spent a lot of time around this topic and the TeslaFI tool testing and providing orig enhancement request and suggestions along the way.] TeslaFI recently created a new (beta) Battery report...
teslamotorsclub.com
There are many, many examples in this thread of owners who have seen 10-15% capacity loss on their Model 3s in a couple years, in near optimal use scenarios (not excessive heat, not excessive cycling, etc.).
We clearly get a
biased sample here, on the low side, so it's far from clear to me how things are going fleet wide, but if you look at the TeslaFi fleet data for Model 3, which is likely
less biased (I can't find a link here but if you search around you can probably find a plot), I think it's also a bit optimistic to expect 5% capacity loss only in the first 50k miles - pretty sure the plots show more than that, with probably something like 290 rated miles average showing at 50k miles, 6.5%+ (but there's another complication here - not sure TeslaFi categorizes vehicles by their constant, so lumping all Model 3 AWD together will yield bad data, since the constant changed in 2020). There are probably some Model 3 owners who will see 5% at 50k miles, but I would guess that it is considerably less than half (also depends on vehicle age of course).
I don't use TeslaFi so I can't run all the reports, but it would be nice if someone eventually got some
good data and actually made this comparison AND also took into account any differences in how Tesla manages the top buffer on Model S/X (it's unknown to me how this is handled on S/X, though I'm pretty familiar with how Model 3 works - it really doesn't have much of one, if any).
SMT captures would be nice! I know
@scottf200 has a bit of knowledge on this and has a Model X and has SMT. He may have/know:
1) captures from early in vehicle life,
2) how the nominal full pack compared to Full Pack When New value, when new,
3) when range loss started showing (at what kWh?),
4) what the vehicle constant is (in other words what does Tesla view as a "new" pack; multiply constant by the EPA rated range)
5) etc.
But in any case the TLDR is that Model 3 and Model X are probably quite different when it comes to capacity loss over time.