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Max range of the model 3 poll

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by aglose, May 5, 2016.

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What do you think the max range will be with the battery upgrade on the Model 3?

  1. 215-230

    1.5%
  2. 230-260

    13.8%
  3. 260-290

    42.5%
  4. 290+

    42.1%
  1. jkk_

    jkk_ Member

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    Morjensta,

    Agree with one minor difference - make the bigger battery be something like $7500 so it'll end up being 10 000€ for us :D
     
  2. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    $10,000 for 30 kWh extra would be a huge markup. We already know cost per kWh is less than $190 ... the Q1 call Elon avoided the actual price per kWh like the plague so chances are it's much lower than that.

    Of course there's going to be huge markups on the Model S in order to pay for the Model 3 (see the cost of upgrading via software from 70kWh to 75kWh for those with the new battery). Everyone has known since the Roadster that the Model S/X are part of the master plan to pay for the Model 3.

    Let's hope the markups on the Model 3 upgrades are a little more sane and not simply low volume, profit driven, like the S/X.
     
  3. geoffreak

    geoffreak Driving My Model 3

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    Considering that Telsa has historically charged around $650/kWh for batteries, I think it would be a bit of a stretch to expect them to sell batteries near cost. Personally, I think a best case scenario would be $300-350/kWh and an upgrade of 15-20kWh.
    201605ssg0m.png
     
  4. Colsla

    Colsla Member

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    I don't know. Why would you say smaller difference makes it worthless and makes no sense? I live in Canada so I don't remember the range difference between 70 and 90 kWh battery models but I don't think they have such a big difference in gap yet they continue to sell both models without a problem.

    I agree that couple tens of miles makes almost no difference because that's not a big increase and I think it will be at least 50miles in increased range but you make it sound like two battery sizes will have different purposes in driving i.e base model for city and max for long distance. That is not what Tesla is trying to achieve here. They simply give an option for those who need more range. Not offer two different sizes for two different purposes.
     
  5. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    That's my point, you can't really count historical references because we know they were trying to use these to make cash for the Model 3. Not sure why they'd need such a huge markup anymore for the Model 3 batteries.
     
  6. Colsla

    Colsla Member

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    Yeah.. With model 3 I believe that Tesla will take advantage of economies of scale and volume sales to make money rather than keeping the same margin they do with model s. While model 3 won't be a car for the masses, it still will be a mass market car. They wanna sell lots of it and turn as many of the pre orders into actual production as possible even if it means making a bit less of profit in each vehicle/iption they sell.
     
    • Like x 1
  7. jonnyg

    jonnyg Member

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    We know what they want for a final profit margin on the cars, but that doesn't tell you anything about margin of the base car, options, upgrades, etc. They can sell the base car at little to no profit and make their overall profit margin on the options if they really wanted to, like a gaming console or printer or something. Not saying they will, but they could if they can make the numbers work. In that case, they might really overcharge on battery upgrades. Or they can try to make enough on the base to not have to have a huge markup on batteries and sell them closer to cost.

    Tesla will make their money somewhere on the 3, but we don't know where. All we can do is speculate and guess it might be similar to how they do the S and the X.
     
  8. flamingoezz

    flamingoezz Member

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    I can't see Tesla approaching 300 miles with the M3. The difference between the standard and extended battery on the S is only 54 miles. They won't make the gap on the M3 much more than that.

    Plus, there should be some variation between the S or M3 capabilities or they will see model S sales drop. Imagine having a car that (arguably) looks better, with AP, supercharging, premium sound, etc AND better range than than any S model at a lower price than the base model S. don't see that happening if they want to sell their high end sedan.

    My bet would be 215 and 270 mile options to start. I could see them offering a super range model 2 or 3 years don't the line, but lets be reasonable. Elon already pushed production in the early stages WAAAAYY past what any of us expected. Getting enough batteries for these things will be a challenge as/is without an 300+ range version.
     
  9. ABCCBA

    ABCCBA Member

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    IMHO, anyone purchasing the upgraded battery pack will be anticipating road trips and supercharging. Therefore, the range of the upgraded battery pack will need to provide sufficient range to handle a supercharger to supercharger run in any weather condition. I would anticipate an ideal maximum range of close to 300 miles which given a 'safety margin' and decreased range for weather conditions would allow for a 200 mile range, just enough for some of the long runs that exist between superchargers.
     
  10. jkk_

    jkk_ Member

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    Why? I'm quite confident that the Model S will have even bigger battery in two years time. I just don't see the need for Tesla to protect the model S by crippling the model 3. Whether or not they can achieve some things with the model 3 architecture is another thing, but purposely not making as good of a car they can? That'd be in conflict with their business goal.

    My thoughts exactly, the reason I'm hoping for a 300 mile version is to have enough buffer for bad (and cold) weather that would enable at least 200 mile range without worrying. I know Tesla is building more superchargers but I don't expect any to be build in places that would help my particular "edge case."
     
    • Like x 1
  11. wbrumfiel

    wbrumfiel Member

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    I'm in CO too, there is a bill that passed the house and sitting in Senate that will change the state rebate. It will likely be $5k by the time we see a model 3 and only $2500 if you do a lease.
    HB16-1332 - Alternative Fuel Motor Vehicle Income Tax Credits - 2016 Colorado Legislation | LegisPeak
     
  12. TslaIsFuture

    TslaIsFuture 2 Model 3 reservations 3/31/2016

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    Remember, during the reveal part 1, EM said that 215 would be the absolute minimum and they expect to do better than that by launch. I am guessing when the model 3 hits production the base range will be 220-240 with the larger battery getting 280-300. Anything over that and I will be impressed.
     
  13. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    I'm absolutely confident it will have a 300mi+ range if the weight is kept low... it has a better Cd than the Roadster which can already go 350-400 mi per charge with 70 kWh.

    If the model 3 doesn't have a 300mi+ option you can criticize my analysis skills after production starts.
     
    • Like x 1
  14. Boourns

    Boourns Active Member

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    Going on record saying that 20kWh (55 to 75) for $6k is my prediction.
     
  15. Michel3

    Michel3 Love those Aero's

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    This is all speculation. But it seems logical that things take time to work out. Also what batteries are most wanted.
    I was rather late in making my reservation at April 22. Around # 400.000. But I think that's better now. Even if I'll have to wait till 2019...
     
  16. Booga

    Booga Member

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    I think there might be an alternative theory to two items we're discussing:

    1) Elon avoiding the cost per kWh could also be because it's higher than they would like. A small number presented to the public investors might worry them. Customers don't care if it costs $X to make.

    2) I think there's a misconception that the people buying the Model S/X are paying large markups to enable others. I think that's false, because the company has been operating at a loss for quite a while. One could make the argument that they're selling them below cost, but it shows demand in the form of revenue, and helps people start getting comfortable with an electric car.

    I think costs will come down, but I don't believe that the Model S folks have been "prepaying" a portion of what the Model 3 is going to cost. They're not subsidizing Model 3 buyers. Were they earlier in the release of the cars? Yes. But that goes for any new technology. I once used a 1GB hard drive that cost $400. Did I subsidize others, or was I paying extra because it was still difficult to manufacture very early on?

    The costs of new technologies are very dynamic and mostly in the negative direction. That doesn't mean early folks are subsidizing us though.
     
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  17. JeffK

    JeffK Well-Known Member

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    You are not alone in this thought, a lot of the general public believes this myth, but it's completely inaccurate. Gross margins for the Model S are over 25%. The plan is for gross margins to be near 30% for the Model S and X in the next year.

    The company operates at a loss due to investments into Model 3 development, gigafactory, etc, etc.
     
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  18. favo

    favo P3D+ owner

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    I voted 260-290, but I'm really hoping they can achieve 300+ on the EPA test and in real-world scenarios. This is a notable threshold they can tout to counter the range anxious skeptics.

    Even if they have to go up to 90 kWh from a base of 55 kWh, this can be done for less than $8000 retail. That assumes they hit $180 per kWh and 25% margin on the batteries, both conservative assumptions, IMHO. It is likely they can hit 300 EPA miles on a smaller battery, maybe as small as 75 kWh.

    In any case, I hope they cram the largest battery that will physically fit in the chassis. There's a small chance they might offer three battery sizes, but I'm guessing not.
     
  19. jkk_

    jkk_ Member

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    Sounds good, I'm still hoping for more but still, sounds good :)
     
  20. Iz

    Iz EVs are here to stay

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    + 1
    Also, other manufacturers are bound to put out models of their own with 200+ mile range. 300+ range will set Tesla apart and look more appealing to consumers making choices strictly on max range, though not in the Model S/X price point.
     

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