MaxPain, call and put wall historical charts and discussion

[Discoducky]

So, I had a thought, see if others feel like contributing...

I do this anyways, so I thought I'd keep it online for all to benefit.

I think there is great value in tracking how MaxPain changes, but not just the actual balance point. Kinda like @Artful Dodger has a spin on it, this is purely just taking a screen shot of the graph at various points during the week and comparing how they change.

My pain main reasons are to see how the call walls are changing and secondary are the put walls.

Anywho, feel free to post screen shots of graphs if you notice there's been a big change or whatever

I like how Maximum-Pain.com does it as the timestamp is what I really like. Sometimes put and call walls can be obscured however, unlike Swaggy Stocks.

For anyone new to looking at these charts, it can be pretty easy (well at least for me) to lose track of the Y-axis. See below for reference

Here's a capture from 1/3/22 for 1/14/22 expiry

And here's one captured today 1/8/22 for 1/14/22 expiry

And now for 1/21/22 expiry, which, thanks to @Papafox 's analysis, seems to be something that is greatly affecting the SP even this week as it is a triple witching and was a big LEAP buy back in 2019 prior to the big rise in the stock.

Screenshot taken 1/3/22 for 1/21/22 expiry

Screenshot taken 1/8/22 for 1/21/22 expiry

 

[Artful Dodger]

So, I had a thought, see if others feel like contributing...

I do this anyways, so I thought I'd keep it online for all to benefit.

I think there is great value in tracking how MaxPain changes, but not just the actual balance point. Kinda like @Artful Dodger has a spin on it, this is purely just taking a screen shot of the graph at various points during the week and comparing how they change.

I can contribute this little dab of Max Pain history for the Jan 21, 2022 Option contract expiries. Hope it provides a little context how sentiment has evolved, although TSLA has been highly volatile since Nov 6 when hedgies begain front running Elon's share options excercise (and associated forced selling for income tax purposes).

Cheers!

 

[Discoducky]

PapaFox has the current maxpain chart in this post which is now $750 and following week is $1070

For 1/21/22

and looking at 1/28/22

and looking way out at 2/18/22, we see a huge put wall at $1200

 

[Discoducky]

Captured Tuesday evening...

I don't think $1100 is going to hold this week. Wall doesn't look high enough due to next weeks $800 wall being higher...

This $800 wall is very high

And 2/18 has just the $1200 wall that is about as high...

 

[Discoducky]

Ok, seems like we might be consolidating around the $1200 call walls over the next 5 weeks. All these are seemingly starting to line up.

I'm tracking this week, next week and 2/18 for interesting activity.

 

[Sudre]

I follow this very closely. I make GIFs to see how the flow is moving. The max-pain, I have found, is pointless. THEY can put that sucker wherever they want. What I do find interesting is watching the tide go in and out. Macros play a big part. Like PapaFox has mentioned, someone is using macros to profit and I don't think that someone cares which way. This week as I expected the Puts between 1050 and 1100 have filled in. There were more Calls than Puts Monday.
The chart has strikes between 1000 and 1200. To scale everything equal it's easier to crop out everything.

..Wed.

..Today... note 1100 Calls lowered. 1050 to 1100 Puts climbed.
Currently this week can land anywhere between 1050 and 1100 and THEY could care less. I bet they are evening things up today.

Since THEY make their money on the fees and options prices, THEY actually like (IMO) close to even amounts of Calls and Puts. It means they maxed out their profits. When THEY sell a Call they hedge it at a minimal lower price than the strike for a large amount of them.. It seems they are not looking to profit off the share price just break even. Same but opposite for Puts.... cash instead of shares. This might be an adopted strategy for TSLA since it is extremely volatile.

Next week is already moving. You can see max pain is rising.... even if it is not reflected in what max-pain calculates to. The tide is coming in.
This chart is also between 1000 and 1200.

The question is.... is there a point to follow this? I have been playing around with trying to do similar things with pocket change and haven't really made enough profits to make it worth my while.... It seems I can stop losses tho and at worst break even.

 

[tivoboy]

I’ve said this in some other threads, but I don’t see the 1/21/22 MAX pain to be so much of a bulls-eye but rather have some magnetic pull. It’s so skewed by LEAPS that were written so long ago to be and is highly skewed. That said, somebody is going to be wanting SOME of their money back or make some easy money based on algos and technicals, so if there is macro downward pressure, QQQ downward pressure I would fully expect TSLA to do what it has done lately and pull back more than (lower) than the indicies would indicate. I’m fully prepared to deploy large sums when that occurs based somewhat more on what the calendar structure is currently indicating. But, I doubt we get through it without some notable impact.

 

[Discoducky]

Another update as we have sunk lower and now premarket looks like we'll test $1000 as critical support.

Hard to believe we are back at $1000 so fast. Puts don't usually get defended, so it will be very interesting to see what happens today.

And now next week could be bearish if we pass critical support and a possible test of those lower calls.

And looking further out at 2/18/22 it is also showing rather large puts and calls up and down the chart.

 

[Discoducky]

Super interesting that we were pulled to $1050 vs somewhere else, but it would appear that was a 'better' balancing point.

Next week should be super interesting as well. Looking back at the historical for the last quad witching, we should see some very high volume it would seem.

And the Y-axis is crazy high...

 

[ReddyLeaf]

FWIW, I review MaxPain several times a week but still have trouble believing that we can glean definitive information. Most importantly, we only get open interest once per day, not great for making +/-$50 strike choices. Volume trading is delayed by at least 20 minutes, so not realtime but better at visualizing where the trading action is actually happening. Probably most importantly, we don’t know who is taking each side of the trade. High volume can mean one investment bank is reacting to news, buying to cover other trades, trying to drive the price, front-running clients, etc. It can just as easily mean one or more market makers are buying or selling. Or it could just be day traders reacting to the SP action. We just don’t know. I’ve seen the SP explode past call walls that I thought were impenetrable, as well as drop $50-$100 lower than put walls of a similar quantity.

At best, I use the two graphs to choose where NOT to trade. From last week, I sold c1205s because it was far enough away that I felt safe. Later in the week, I closed for $0.01-0.02 and then resold at even lower, for a bit more profit. In retrospect, they were fine, but I felt like I was being too risky, even though $1050 became the obvious target. Each week’s trading and MaxPain graphs are different and certainty is never certain.

For this week, it sure looks like traders are holding back and are currently positioned for $1020-$1040. Will it hold? Who knows? I doubt it, but that’s not from my reading of MaxPain. I just “expect” the bastards to fill the $938-$958 gap (probably just wishful thinking because I have some dry powder ready). Last Friday’s early morning push below 1000 was very impressive and I expect something similar next week. I believe that the 1000p wall will hold, but I also expect them to punch below it to try and force people on margin to roll out.

 

[Discoducky]

More craziness today, with the SP going below $1k.

Seems this week is capped at $1050, unless major positive news leaks, next week is earnings.

Looking out, seems next week could be similar unless we get the epic beat we are all hoping for...

I've bought some calls for 2/18 and 3/18 so I'm tracking those as well

3/18 is interesting as there seems to be way less puts than usual.

Higher call imbalance than I've seen.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

More craziness today, with the SP going below $1k.

Seems this week is capped at $1050, unless major positive news leaks, next week is earnings.…..…….3/18 is interesting as there seems to be way less puts than usual.

$1020.69 is my prediction for 1/21. I was happy to see the push down below $1000 so I could pick up shares, though I’m still holding back cash for $938-$958 (very unlikely now). Next week, the only given is an IV crush. I don’t think it will break 1300, but not willing to bet on it yet. I’m expecting a bump up to challenge the 1100 wall, if we’re lucky maybe the 1200 wall. If there is a run up over 1200 on Wednesday, then I will probably put in -c1305, 1355, or 1405 orders, depending on premiums and strength. On the put/call volume, it seems to me that the puts don’t really start to fill in until the Friday before or week of expiration.

 

[Discoducky]

Can't believe we tested $939 and finished well below the $950 call wall at $943 and AH back to $939.

LEAPs are amazing and I own a bunch for the next wave in June...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Can't believe we tested $939 and finished well below the $950 call wall at $943 and AH back to $939.

LEAPs are amazing and I own a bunch for the next wave in June...

View attachment 758594

This is one situation where a 'bot posting scrapped content at pre-defined times would be very useful. The archive would have great value (site has zero archives publicly viewable).

Cheers!

 

[KBF]

This is one situation where a 'bot posting scrapped content at pre-defined times would be very useful. The archive would have great value (site has zero archives publicly viewable).

Cheers!

I know that many of you (@Papafox in particular) have kept a close eye on SP's relationship to Max Pain. Now that we have multiple years of data on TSLA's SP, do we have any statistical analysis of the relationship? I imagine that it's somewhat fluid - as someone pointed out, massive interests (probably multiple ones) are able to make profit from both sides of this. We know for a fact that Bill Gates shorts TSLA at ridiculously high levels, but there are far richer oligarchs out there who would be dumb not to take advantage of TSLA volatility. Then again, these big fish don't have to be constantly manipulating price - only when they want extra profit - while I'd be surprised if bots/automated processes aren't involved, there are still humans involved and its not a precise law of nature or an intrinsic correlation.

I guess what I'm asking - at this point, can we see a more refined relationship with Max Pain? Or is it still a lot of guesswork? And, is there a way to leverage this, or are we at the mercy of the über-rich who laugh at our feeble attempts at playing their game?

(I'm generally a HODLer - have sold high and repurchased low a few times, lucky, though I wish I hadn't sold any shares when I tripled my value at $100 - never dealt in options, not sure I have the guts right now as I'm building a beautiful, sustainable, Net Zero retreat thanks to TSLA profits)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Now that we have multiple years of data on TSLA's SP, do we have any statistical analysis of the relationship?

Yeah, we've always had data on the SP. What we still don't have is historical data for max pain.

 

[Discoducky]

Yeah, we've always had data on the SP. What we still don't have is historical data for max pain.

Some historical data here

Options Max Pain - Calculations for SPY

Our Max Pain calculator displays the aggregate nominal value of options premium expiring at each strike price, for each expiration.

swaggystocks.com