Same, but this also happened a week or 2 ago and nothing actually changed about people’s orders as far as I know.
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May AWD/Performance Orders -- VIN / Status Thread
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Same, but this also happened a week or 2 ago and nothing actually changed about people’s orders as far as I know.
EfficientWatts
Member
5/23 Order, AWD. Nothing yet.
Just curious what do you think will be the breakdown for P-AWD vs AWD? I'm wondering how many P-AWD will be made before they start making the AWD version. Do we have any similar data from the Model X launch?
Just curious what do you think will be the breakdown for P-AWD vs AWD? I'm wondering how many P-AWD will be made before they start making the AWD version. Do we have any similar data from the Model X launch?
Someone posted (based on the spreadsheet orders filtered for 1st week after 6/27) the split to be close to 1P:4AWD:4RWD.
I would not be surprised if all Ps go first, this could be just 2-3 weeks of production at current rate.
EDIT: although if only on the tent line it could take longer.
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Ehh. Don’t get me wrong, I very much hope you’re correct but I don’t see how they could produce only P3Ds in a given week as they’re binning motors. We think close to 100% of production will pass the higher standards for performance reliability?
Admittedly, these are guesses but I’m basing my “analysis” on a perhaps optimistic maximun P3D production being 20% of total Model 3 production. If they’re at a consistent ~4K/week t (per Bloomberg Tracker), that’s 800 P3Ds/week or 1,000 once at a 5K consistent run rate.
I believe someone else on TMC had a (rough but logical) analysis indicating 15-18K P3D orders shortly after config opened to early reservation holders and before the price drop. This would lead us to believe filling these orders would require anywhere from 18 - 22.5 weeks. Tesla is guiding to a max of 16 weeks (4 months) so perhaps my estimates are conservative but not sure we should expect them to under promise and over deliver on delieveries (heh). Not exactly their style.
Since we don't know the criteria for binning; it could be up to 95% of all motors that pass the threshold requirement for being placed in a P car. Heck... it literally could be almost all of them. Also; even if it was only 50% they could just set that motor aside to be used in future AWD car; they don't have to immediately use the AWD motor in a car... its not ice cream, it won't go bad from being put on the shelf for a while while they roll the P cars out.
In my view; Just because he said they had already produced 100 P cars for use as demo cars doesn't exclude the possibility that they have also been making others for customer production.
webdbbt
Member
Hard to guess exact numbers. We know there were big batches of RWD orders first, then possibly a subset of same reservation queue got a chance to order P/AWD, so these are not representative due to limited choices. After 6/27 it was everybody ordering and between available choices P was 11%. The total P orders would exclude those placed in May when first allowed, but the percentage could be reflective of their overall share... Basically, all 3/31 and some 4/1 people had a chance to order RWD previously and some 3/31 people had a chance to order P/AWD. So, the post 6/27 numbers are everyone 4/1+ and maybe some 3/31 for P/AWD(not positive here, but I believe some were not invited in May), i.e. the overall split would be skewed towards P/AWD vs RWD somewhat due to some 3/31 U.S. waiters+all Canadian waiters.
So, 11% therefore could be slightly more than a real number if all (non-SR) models were available at once.
We probably have somewhere between 200-240k U.S.+Canada orders out of oustanding 418k. The big question - what is SR(+other wait) share. Spreadsheet I think will be skewed/incorrect SR-wise, b/c people most often don't update it until they order or close to it, so even though it shows ~30% deferrals for SR/white/non-PUP, I think the real share must be bigger. Could be 50% still waiting. I think this fits better with timelines Musk outlined.
Then out of 100-120k potential orders, we could have 11-13k Ps and 45-54k of each AWD and RWD.
5 months of production @5k/week is ~100k and if he ramps to 6-7k in the meanwhile, then you get even more, so it shows how this demand can be satisfied and if P gets priority, then it just gets produced sooner.
11-13k Ps is <3 weeks, but if produced at 1/3 of capacity then 2+ months(after EPA certification).
I believe I saw some tweet from Musk claiming the quality on the tent line is even better than regular
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Same here. Order agreement link didn't work earlier in the day, works now.Well, if anyone's curious, I just checked my order agreement and the link works and my agreement is unchanged. But I'm holding a 6/30 order date (AWD), so maybe those of you with missing agreements are getting VINs added!
marusan
Member
Yeah, I was hoping it would be fixed. Mine still doesn't even indicate the order is for a AWD-P, even though it has P-only options (and a P price).
The other weird thing is that the "Learn more" links are now above the "Documents". Seems like they just updated the code... can't imagine why they would make that change though. I guess they want more people to know how to operate the car before they get to the delivery.
I’m hoping that they will update the order page to more accurately report delivery estimates/ order status. It would lower a lot of the burdens for ISA and probably lower the number of people calling for their VIN.
Tesla set everyone's delivery estimate 2-4 months for P and 3-5 months for RWD/AWD to discourage people calling about where's my damn car lol
More AWD VINs registered today. I hope May orders should start to see VIN assignments in the 2-3 days. Please update!
Model 3 VINs on Twitter
Based on how they allocated the late June RWD orders, I think East Coast will get the first ones. Even if they are waiting for EPA certification, I think they will start the ship the cars east.
Model 3 VINs on Twitter
Based on how they allocated the late June RWD orders, I think East Coast will get the first ones. Even if they are waiting for EPA certification, I think they will start the ship the cars east.
diamond.g
Active Member
The VIN registration today was I think the most interesting as I sort of assume it tells the story of the split they intend to manufacture at, at least for the moment. If my math is correct and the breakdown I read is correct...
700 RWD, 1526 AWD
That means about 2/3 are AWD. Perhaps the thinking is one like for RWD, one for AWD and one for P3D.
700 RWD, 1526 AWD
That means about 2/3 are AWD. Perhaps the thinking is one like for RWD, one for AWD and one for P3D.
diamond.g
Active Member
I wonder how they are getting the binning so right for the performance model that the awd model is still "late" compared to the rwd model.
