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May invites - no new invites after shutdown?

swaltner

Active Member
Oct 13, 2012
1,651
1,707
Kansas, USA
Why does the spreadsheet show 19% deferral rate, when we know/suspect it’s much higher than that? Because this value is kind of meaningless on the spreadsheet. Many people only add their entry after receiving an invite and submitting their order.

I would suspect the reasons for deferring are pretty accurate on the views of the population as a whole, but the actual ratio of people that are ordering/deferring is way off of reality. That’s the nature of people self-selecting when to take a survey - the results may not directly reflect reality.
 
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Why does the spreadsheet show 19% deferral rate, when we know/suspect it’s much higher than that? Because this value is kind of meaningless on the spreadsheet. Many people only add their entry after receiving an invite and submitting their order.

I would suspect the reasons for deferring are pretty accurate on the views of the population as a whole, but the actual ratio of people that are ordering/deferring is way off of reality. That’s the nature of people self-selecting when to take a survey - the results may not directly reflect reality.
You're likely right. I thought at first that all people who know about spreadsheet and want to contribute would add their data asap, if only with reservation date and update with the progress later (after they get invite), but probably most are not adding anything until configuring.
 

9erDog

Member
Aug 2, 2017
249
320
Cypress, CA
I have a May - July estimate and received my invite on 4/18 and configured on 4/23. Still waiting on a VIN. I'm not sure that I will have delivery in Q2 with the activity as it is right now. I'm okay with waiting until July for delivery especially if that helps move the 200,000th US delivery to Q3. Not sure what is going to happen of course.
 
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ksb467

Member
May 16, 2018
145
106
Atlanta
i think the better question is: what's the latest reservation time that has gotten an invite as of now? i'm 9am pacific time on 4/1 (may-july window), and still don't have one...
4/1 8am est (may-July). No invite . They seems to be making a lot of cars , yet no US invite batches for nearly a month. Assume related to 3q deferral strategy.
 
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crackers8199

Active Member
May 31, 2015
1,312
680
lake elsinore, ca
4/1 8am est (may-July). No invite . They seems to be making a lot of cars , yet no US invite batches for nearly a month. Assume related to 3q deferral strategy.

i agree. the number of people who i've seen state the full tax credit will expire at the end of september as if it's an absolute certainty just blows my mind at this point...could it? sure, but it sure as hell seems like they're trying to push #200k out to july right now. just like anyone with a brain could have seen coming all along...
 

lapolak

Member
Feb 27, 2018
107
152
Los Angeles
i think the better question is: what's the latest reservation time that has gotten an invite as of now? i'm 9am pacific time on 4/1 (may-july window), and still don't have one...

I reserved on 4/1 but I don't remember at what time and I still do not have an invite.

I've just assumed that May - July window invites were few due to the lack of chatter on the forums with people from this window.
When does Q3 for Tesla begin? July?
 

lapolak

Member
Feb 27, 2018
107
152
Los Angeles
7/1. Tesla's fiscal year is based on the calendar year, although the Q3 200k has to do with the IRS calendar and not Tesla FY (but they are the same).

Cool, thank you. I was wondering because my employer's (huge non-profit hospital) financial year ends June 30 and renews on July 1st, which is strange (and our small year-end annual bonus comes in September so it gets confusing).

Welp, can't say that I am not a bit dismayed by then news that many May - July window invites have gone out.

The wait by itself does not bother me as much (especially since it gives me more time to save)... its the fact that I need another car and each day that passes puts wear on my current car that I've neglected for a while because I don't want to put money into a car with a replacement on the horizon haha.

I was so close to canceling and purchasing 2-3 year old CPO BMW or Merc (since they have crazy depreciation) but couldn't bring myself to do it since its so close -- especially after I rented a Model 3 on Turo to give it a test.
 
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Waiting43

Member
Dec 20, 2017
47
52
New York
i agree. the number of people who i've seen state the full tax credit will expire at the end of september as if it's an absolute certainty just blows my mind at this point...could it? sure, but it sure as hell seems like they're trying to push #200k out to july right now. just like anyone with a brain could have seen coming all along...

This makes the most sense as explanation!
 
My guess is they send out invites in early June after the shutdown. They are backlogged with current reservations, people who configured got a push back e-mail. For example mine said to expect my car in July! I configured on 4/20 with a original estimate of 3-6 weeks. I am currently on 6 weeks and wont be seeing the car for atleast another 2 weeks ( hopefully ) considering I am east coast.
 
Is there any evidence to support other than some quote from Elon about reaching the 6K "burst" capacity. that they are back online after the shut down? The fact that there have been no new invites in over a month leads me to believe that there may be ongoing production issues - possibly related to AWD. If they had produced 10K-20K cars in June, surely we would see some invites going out? I know much of the rationale has been that they are trying to protect the tax incentive, but they haven't even sent more invites to Canada.
 
Is there any evidence to support other than some quote from Elon about reaching the 6K "burst" capacity. that they are back online after the shut down? The fact that there have been no new invites in over a month leads me to believe that there may be ongoing production issues - possibly related to AWD. If they had produced 10K-20K cars in June, surely we would see some invites going out? I know much of the rationale has been that they are trying to protect the tax incentive, but they haven't even sent more invites to Canada.

I really believe it has more to do with sending out too many invites in April. There were also a ton of invites to Canada, probably due to saving the tax credit. I don't think there is some hidden production issue, if anything its moving along from what I have read. Last I heard the production was to be halted till tomorrow (5/31) based on some article I read online ( forget the source). The good news is they should be pumping cars out at a higher rate moving forward.

This is all speculation and I don't have some hidden resource besides reading too many forums.

Hopefully we all get our car very soon! As mentioned before I configured 4/20 from a 4/18 invite and only communication I have been given was I may be delayed till July.
 

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