May invites - no new invites after shutdown?

[eCharcoal]

I think most cars the produced is the past month were delivered to Canada. It makes sense to hold US delivery until July to make the full tax credit available until the end of the year. I guess and hope things will be really flying starting July with the shutdown and new line put up. My estimated delivery date of Jun - Aug has not changed. I’m guessing I will get an invite in mid July for late August delivery.

 

[nando2323]

I would further speculate it's not just hitting 200K in July, but having the production rate exiting June at full run rate. I suspect we'll see a lot of movement in June. If I recall correctly, the tax credit expires after delivering 200K cars, not producing 200K. This should get interesting next week coming out of the shut down.

It's crazy how quiet this week has been so far for VIN assignment I would suspect that you are right and next week there will be an influx in assignments. I was expecting a VIN assignment this week as I am hitting my 4th week since config but I not anymore because of the shut down.

 

[jsrawa]

I am May to July with no invite. I really do understand deferring deliveries and invites to extend the credit, it helps Tesla and helps the customers. That being said it is a little frustrating to see all these cars being delivered to Canadians of which some have waited half the time or less than the rest of us. I don’t expect an invite until mid-June but at this point my exuberance to get it ASAP has waned and now I feel like I might as well just wait for the D model.

 

[Waiting43]

According to Bloomberg (We Set Out to Crack Tesla's Biggest Mystery: How Many Model 3s It's Making), the "donut hole" has filled in in the last week or so, and new VINs in the 32K range appear to be reported, so things are looking up again?

 

[lapolak]

Has anyone in the May - July bracket that has been waiting for a while recently get an invite? Very curious .

 

[costpermille]

Has anyone in the May - July bracket that has been waiting for a while recently get an invite? Very curious .

May-July here. Bay Area location (actually 10 minutes drive from the factory). Made online reservation around 11am on 4/1/16. No invite yet. Don't really mind waiting a bit more, just want to get a FP config before the full tax credit runs out.

 

[McRat]

Has anyone in the May - July bracket that has been waiting for a while recently get an invite? Very curious .

No luck here.

 

[Moderatefan]

Our "few days" are ticking https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1003142348061138944

 

[lapolak]

Our "few days" are ticking https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1003142348061138944

Encouraging but unclear if he’s replying to the Canadians or Americans.

 

[Moderatefan]

Encouraging but unclear if he’s replying to the Canadians or Americans.

The question was pretty specific:

When do US day 2 reservation holders get some first production love? It's been awhile since we have gotten invites.

Also, Canadians no longer have any priority over U.S., since any new shipments to that country likely will not fit into Q2 and, thus, not help the 200k.

 

[lapolak]

The question was pretty specific:


Also, Canadians no longer have any priority over U.S., since any new shipments to that country likely will not fit into Q2 and, thus, not help the 200k.

Ah well then, question is... blue, red, white, MSM, or silver.

 

[McRat]

According to Elon, there will be Model P3D's in showrooms before 10% of reservation holders get an invite for First Production.

Elon is not putting P3D's in the stores and not selling them. And if you made a reservation in 2016/2017 and do not have an invite before the P3D goes into production, you might have to wait for all the MS/X owner/friends/family deferrals before you'll be invited for anything.

I sort of saw the writing on the wall last month.

 

[Moderatefan]

I am May to July with no invite. I really do understand deferring deliveries and invites to extend the credit, it helps Tesla and helps the customers. That being said it is a little frustrating to see all these cars being delivered to Canadians of which some have waited half the time or less than the rest of us. I don’t expect an invite until mid-June but at this point my exuberance to get it ASAP has waned and now I feel like I might as well just wait for the D model.

I feel a bit of the same. However, there's some risk that AWD won't get delivered until tax credit halves. Especially if you decide to reject the car or some other "force majeure".
Also, the price is killing me. I was reserving a $35K car. FP w/ EAP & taxes is $61K. If you add another $5K to that it's like $66.5K, almost double the initial price, this is crazy. I'm not willing to let go of LR or PUP, AWD is really a less practical component even with winters we have when I may have to skip driving few days in a season... There's the tease of 4.5s vs 5.1s, but if I think logically about this, I may only do this few times and then most likely will want to have the efficiency instead of performance, so is it really worth it?

 

[Moderatefan]

According to Elon, there will be Model P3D's in showrooms before 10% of reservation holders get an invite for First Production.

When did he say that? I did not hear anything P-specific: @43:00

I think they should be able to fill P orders from backlog within 2 months @1/3 of capacity. This might be the shortest wait of all configurations.

 

[drawfour]

Ah well then, question is... blue, red, white, MSM, or silver.

Red.

 

[jsrawa]

I feel a bit of the same. However, there's some risk that AWD won't get delivered until tax credit halves. Especially if you decide to reject the car or some other "force majeure".
Also, the price is killing me. I was reserving a $35K car. FP w/ EAP & taxes is $61K. If you add another $5K to that it's like $66.5K, almost double the initial price, this is crazy. I'm not willing to let go of LR or PUP, AWD is really a less practical component even with winters we have when I may have to skip driving few days in a season... There's the tease of 4.5s vs 5.1s, but if I think logically about this, I may only do this few times and then most likely will want to have the efficiency instead of performance, so is it really worth it?

Yeah, I agree with every part of what you said. Waiting and opting for the D might realistically mean half a credit. My estimate for the D is late 2018 and we all know how much we can rely on those estimates! He couldn't even get any new invites out this week, how on Earth can they get the backlog of the D and P models out of the way for me to get to my reservation for a D in 2018? I know S curve blah blah.

Also I had hoped the D would come in around 4k, 5k is what it was on the S as an upgrade!

 

[lapolak]

Red.

That’s what I’m leaning towards. The longer I wait, the more I keep switching ;p.

 

[eprosenx]

I would further speculate it's not just hitting 200K in July, but having the production rate exiting June at full run rate. I suspect we'll see a lot of movement in June. If I recall correctly, the tax credit expires after delivering 200K cars, not producing 200K. This should get interesting next week coming out of the shut down.

Yeah, I am dead curious where they are stashing all these cars. The data I see makes me think they are saving them up for July delivery. Of course, it is hard to tell due to distortions such as:

1. Plant shutdowns
2. Tesla disabling the VIN assignment in the web interface
3. Tesla disabling the HPWC trick
4. Tesla skipping a bunch of VIN's

So they have not said it publicly, but it is clear to me they are trying to avoid 200k cars this quarter by shorting deliveries on the Model 3's (which makes a ton of sense as the MS and MX are WAY higher margin vehicles and are not capacity constrained - don't piss those customers off by delaying them...)

It does not seem though like Canadian deliveries are ramped enough to be taking all the cars that were previously going to the US.

I would not be surprised if they have started optimizing for some of the "farther away" locations in the US so they can use shipping transit times to be a natural delay on delivery.

Note that there are rail/shipping yards where they can store incredible amounts of cars in most major cities. Would not be hard to queue some M3's all around the country...

My assumption is that a whole crud ton of cars will be delivered July 1 or shortly thereafter. I ordered 4/18 and was given the 3-6 week window of which I am now in week 7.5. :-( July pushback email is what I got, so if I am not one of the "lucky ones" then I am guessing early July. I live in Oregon so a short shipment distance!