-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Media Announcement 2013/04/26
- Thread starter brianman
- Start date
-
- Tags
- Tesla Inc.
Better than an old Ford Fiesta with summer tires in the middle of the biggest snowstorm of the season. That was my experience. It was actually terrifying... and I'm not exaggerating.
I liked that when the last caller asked about a 400 mile battery, Elon said "400 mile battery? How about a 500 mile battery" .... made me think of how realistic a Towing capable truck could be with Next gen batteries . Did not sound like the Model S is likely to get 4wd before the Model X but it would definitely boost sales, so I am still hopeful.
This is all GREAT NEWS! I thought something like this had to happen. It didn't make sense to have to read an umpteen page thread just so you could be even more confused about warranty and service contracts and obligations.
I had already decided to ignore it all and just call Service when/if I had a problem. (seems silly to put down >100g's for a car so you can fret over service plans and mandates)
I really like the idea of being able to swap for the loaner if you like it better, and it seems ingenious to turn every service loanee into a free salesman. I wonder what they'll do with all the buy-backs if many people take them up on the loaner swap?
Anyway I'm very pleased. (I wonder if their new break-even policy will get me a partial refund on my outrageously expensive replacement key?
)
I had already decided to ignore it all and just call Service when/if I had a problem. (seems silly to put down >100g's for a car so you can fret over service plans and mandates)
I really like the idea of being able to swap for the loaner if you like it better, and it seems ingenious to turn every service loanee into a free salesman. I wonder what they'll do with all the buy-backs if many people take them up on the loaner swap?
Anyway I'm very pleased. (I wonder if their new break-even policy will get me a partial refund on my outrageously expensive replacement key?
)
I'm one of those who cancelled. Tesla has fully redeemed themselves. We had a very early reservation for a Model S (#294), Bought a Roadster 2 yrs ago cuz we couldn't wait. Loved it so much we couldn't part with it when we got the email to configure last fall. Then got so pissed off at the price-gouging mandatory service to keep your warranty for a car that's been billed for years as "low maintenance", that we cancelled our order. I will re-activate my deposit. Thank you Tesla for doing the right thing.:smile:
Perhaps the joke's on me in the end. Now we'll suffer a price increase that would have paid for all the "mandatory" service...
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
Perhaps the joke's on me in the end. Now we'll suffer a price increase that would have paid for all the "mandatory" service...
But, you stuck to your principles despite being a Tesla fan; kudos for that.Common sense should tell everyone that this kinda of battery pack size and range is NOT a question of 'IF?' but rather a question of 'WHEN?'. The pace of technology advancement is incredible. 400-500 mile range battery should only be 4-5 years out. 700-800 probably about 7-8 years out. 1000+ about 10 years out. The same goes for the speed of recharge. Soon enough with newer battery technology we'll be able to charge 0-100% in < 10 minutes. At that point, it becomes a question of the power supply itself, not the battery and charging tech. Typical households with 200amp panels won't be able to charge that fast but superchargers definitely will. All of this is possible today - not some theoretical idea. It's already confirmed possible by new technology (advancements with graphite + nano tech), so only a matter of how long to until this is productized by manufacturers and ready for mass production.
Those ranges were totally guesstimates though. Lets look at actual factual data of lithium ion battery capacity over the years. I found this chart on the net. Might help you understand the rate of capacity advancement for these batteries over time.
So you're looking at roughly somewhere between 11-17% range increase per year. Lets low ball it, at 10% increase per year start with Model S current tech, thats:
2013 - 265 mile range
2014 - 292 mile range possible
2015 - 321 mile range possible
2016 - 353 mile range possible
2017 - 388 mile range possible
2018 - 427 mile range possible
2019 - 469 mile range possible
2020 - 516 mile range possible
2021 - 568 mile range possible
2022 - 625 mile range possible
2023 - 687 mile range possible
2024 - 756 mile range possible
2025 - 832 mile range possible
2026 - 915 mile range possible
2027 - 1006 mile range possible
2028 - 1107 mile range possible
Now, clearly new battery tech isn't release each year. So let's go with Elon's statement that new battery tech is every 4-5 years. Therefore, we should see ranges of EVs like the following:
today - 265 mile range
2018 - 427 mile range
2023 - 687 mile range
2028 - 1107 mile range
So even low balling it, we should definitely see EVs with 1000+ mile ranges in less than 15 years. It's looking great for the future of EVs...
And here's the other thing, this is totally assuming lithium ion advancement continues at it's current linear pace (and looks to be even above that line), and that no higher density battery chemistry is discovered in the next 15 years. I think there's definitely a good change that something else better than lithium ion is discovered within 15 years that will dramatically increase battery capacities and ranges.
It's good to know that the future firmware download is included regardless of one purchases the Service Plan or not. I am also a low mileage driver, 8-9K per year and purchased the 4-yr Service Plan. It will take me more than 5 years to drive 50K miles. I like the coupon idea of say, purchase 4 coupons and bring in whenever I want. Unless Tesla forgives the 4 year/12.5K requirement for service for the 4-yr plan, I will cancel my contract and pay as you go.
TXjak
Owner/Investor/Advocate
Since Elon said the service should be what you wish you could have, I would prefer it if the 4-year plan was changed to a 4-service plan, leaving it up to the owner to schedule the service as they see fit, regardless of mileage.
Here's the problem with the "4 service coupon" idea: Let's say someone decides to bring in their MS at years 3,6,9,&12. At year 12, he has 115,000 miles on his car. Tesla really does not know how much it will cost to service such a car. Maybe it will be no more than usual, maybe it will be WAY more than usual, and thus a losing proposition. That's why TM doesn't offer a 4+4+4 plan: they just don't know.
I think a better approach might be to call it a 4-year, 50,000 mile service plan, whichever comes LAST. That, in and of itself, will turn the automotive service industry on its ears. Can you imagine any of the Big3 doing something like that? Or even BMW, MB, or Toyota?
if they did this (or the coupon idea, which I still say is very consumer advantageous), I would upgrade my 4 year plan to the 4+4 because I definitely want to drive this car as long as I possibly can.
I think a better approach might be to call it a 4-year, 50,000 mile service plan, whichever comes LAST. That, in and of itself, will turn the automotive service industry on its ears. Can you imagine any of the Big3 doing something like that? Or even BMW, MB, or Toyota?
if they did this (or the coupon idea, which I still say is very consumer advantageous), I would upgrade my 4 year plan to the 4+4 because I definitely want to drive this car as long as I possibly can.
kevincwelch
Active Member
I think I'll just stick with my 4+4 plan and bring it in yearly.
This is new technology, and I really don't know what's going to happen to it over time. I'm relatively low mileage now, but that may change in the future. If I can bring it in, get a loaner P85, and have piece of mind that Tesla can take as long as they need to completely examine and treat as well as perform preventative maintenance, then I'm not going to get upset about the up front $3800 given to them.
Sent via Tapatalk.
This is new technology, and I really don't know what's going to happen to it over time. I'm relatively low mileage now, but that may change in the future. If I can bring it in, get a loaner P85, and have piece of mind that Tesla can take as long as they need to completely examine and treat as well as perform preventative maintenance, then I'm not going to get upset about the up front $3800 given to them.
Sent via Tapatalk.
contaygious
Active Member
The only thing I might need service for are the tire rotations, but those are not even included in the service plan.
Krugerrand
Meow
Come to my house and bring beer and I'll do it for free...
Everyone make note; Kaivball can be bought for beer. (I'd have least held out for the chicken wings.) :biggrin:
Krugerrand
Meow
Lol.
Well, I am German..,
Maybe should have held out for the bratwurst then? :smile:
