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Mid-Canada Superchargers

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* Climate - the batteries are going to start off cold and the heaters are going to be on a lot - reducing range.

_Must_ handle winter range.
_Could_ handle seasonal range variation.

For example: if 160.9km* apart is needed for winter, and they just build for winter, then every other Supercharger would be 321.8km apart, which wouldn't be ideal for warm-weather driving. So, start by handling winter and then over time fill in to allow ideal travel in multiple seasons.

* ;)
 
I would bet by far the climate issue is the biggest one. Gets cold enough to freeze the knackers off a Tasmanian Devil up here. And if Elon spent a winter in Ontario at Queens University then he would know!
Kingston is in the Canadian Banana Belt. Sure, it gets cold for a few days (-20, perhaps), but a Northern prairie winter day can be -40 or -45.
You do have to expect a significant range loss in that kind of weather.......
 
Prawda appearing in permit is very exciting. But where the heck is Winterpeg, er... Winnipeg?

[Edit: and Grand Forks, for that matter.]

[Edit x2: And not that I have anything against Manitoba, but how come 3 of 4 SCs in permit stage in Canada are there? Is there actually more building activity, or greater permit lead times, or more transparent permitting, or more vigilant Tesla enthusiasts?]
 
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Prawda appearing in permit is very exciting. But where the heck is Winterpeg, er... Winnipeg?

[Edit: and Grand Forks, for that matter.]

[Edit x2: And not that I have anything against Manitoba, but how come 3 of 4 SCs in permit stage in Canada are there? Is there actually more building activity, or greater permit lead times, or more transparent permitting, or more vigilant Tesla enthusiasts?]
Tesla doesn't like to build superchargers that you can't get to from other superchargers, so for the TCH they could start at Calgary and go east or start at Sudbury and go west or start at Winnipeg (connected to North Dakota) and go both ways. They seem to be opting for #3 at first; hopefully they'll do all 3 once they get rolling. As for why the middle first, my guess is it's just where they found suitable sites first.
 
Kingston is in the Canadian Banana Belt. Sure, it gets cold for a few days (-20, perhaps), but a Northern prairie winter day can be -40 or -45.
You do have to expect a significant range loss in that kind of weather.......
My point is that for Elon Musk, who grew up in South Africa, where being cold would be a heat wave for us, it would give him a sense of our winters. Even if Kingston might have only gotten really cold once or twice that winter, that would stick with him.
 
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With the supercharger map update, I noticed that Winnipeg got bumped to " Target Opening in 2019" while all the other Manitoba locations remain slated for 2018.
 

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... if 160.9km* apart is needed for winter

I have some recent experience that may be of interest here. I drove a Model X P90D across I-80 through Iowa, Nebraska, Wyoming, Utah, etc. at the end of December 2017. Temperatures were typically below -20C. I was actually shocked that it was that cold. Anything more than 120 km apart and you cannot go whatever speed you like and have the heat on. It's that simple. If I remember correctly I did one stretch that was 180 km between chargers, and it turned out to not be a problem because there was a net downhill, but believe me I started out doing well below the speed limit (60 mph instead of 75?) and with the heat off (seat and steering wheel heat on and bundled up with a blanket on my lap).

Relative to a Model S with a solid roof, the Model X (with almost nothing but glass roof) is an energy hog in cold weather.

Towing? HA! There is no way in hell you could tow anything non-trivial more than 100 km when it's -20 C out, unless you leave the heat off.

For reference: I escaped from Timmins to the Sudbury supercharger, a distance of roughly 290 km, by going 70 km/h the entire way, with the heat off. I was starting to worry about frostbite. I arrived with 4% charge.

I have also driven more than 400 km on one charge in the summer.

"What's the range of the car?" is a question you cannot answer without also asking "under what conditions"?
 
The potential for bad conditions in the northern parts of the US in the Mountain time zone are actually much worse than anything you would see in Canada. You have extremely high speed limits and large elevation changes. You won't have those issues driving across northern Ontario.
 
The potential for bad conditions in the northern parts of the US in the Mountain time zone are actually much worse than anything you would see in Canada. You have extremely high speed limits and large elevation changes. You won't have those issues driving across northern Ontario.

There aren't large elevation changes across Iowa and Nebraska! The conditions would be similar on the Canadian prairies, only on average colder.

As for large elevation changes - have you driven highway 17 along the north shore of Lake Superior? There are some definite hills there. You're right, the speed limit is lower, but as I mentioned, I was often doing less than the speed limit across the U.S. That's not such a problem when there's 4 lanes (most of the Trans-Canada highway across Ontario is 2-lane).
 
Tesla doesn't like to build superchargers that you can't get to from other superchargers, so for the TCH they could start at Calgary and go east or start at Sudbury and go west or start at Winnipeg (connected to North Dakota) and go both ways. They seem to be opting for #3 at first; hopefully they'll do all 3 once they get rolling. As for why the middle first, my guess is it's just where they found suitable sites first.

Generally, do it by the numbers.
Largest disconnected metros:
#7 Winnipeg, MB: 705,224
#14 Halifax, NS: 403,131
#19 Saskatoon, SK: 246,376
#24 Regina, SK: 215,106
#49 St. John's, NL: 108,860
#50 Thunder Bay, ON: 107,909

So to me the priorities would be:
1) Clearwater, MN to Winnipeg, MB: connects #7 to Toronto, ON on the fastest route, and to Quebec and the Maritimes with some diversion.

2) Riviere du Loup, QC to Halifax, NS: connects #14 to the "grid". (Adding St John, NB and Baileyville, ME would then also make a good connection between the USA and the Maritimes)

3) Calgary, AB to Regina, SK: #3 to #24
4) Winnipeg, MB to Regina, SK : #7 to #24
At that point Superchargers would allow direct or fairly travel between all the largest metro areas except Saskatoon, SK, which is unfortunately off the main East-West path, but ...

5) Regina, SK to Saskatoon, SK: #19 it wouldn't take much more to connect those two 200k+ areas.

6) Winnipeg, MB to Sudbury, ON: not that much population along that _very_ long route. Yes, we all want completion, but surely there are priorities.
7) Subdury, ON to Ottawa, ON
 
My point is that for Elon Musk, who grew up in South Africa, where being cold would be a heat wave for us, it would give him a sense of our winters. Even if Kingston might have only gotten really cold once or twice that winter, that would stick with him.
Elon's parents are from Canada and South Africa, other relatives from US and Britain. He was born in South Africa and went to school there. His college days were spent in Ontario (Canada) at Queens University and University of Pennsylvania (U.S.). He has a cousin in Saskatchewan.

He knows about cold weather.
 
Generally, do it by the numbers.
Largest disconnected metros:
#7 Winnipeg, MB: 705,224
#14 Halifax, NS: 403,131
#19 Saskatoon, SK: 246,376
#24 Regina, SK: 215,106
#49 St. John's, NL: 108,860
#50 Thunder Bay, ON: 107,909

So to me the priorities would be:
1) Clearwater, MN to Winnipeg, MB: connects #7 to Toronto, ON on the fastest route, and to Quebec and the Maritimes with some diversion.

2) Riviere du Loup, QC to Halifax, NS: connects #14 to the "grid". (Adding St John, NB and Baileyville, ME would then also make a good connection between the USA and the Maritimes)

3) Calgary, AB to Regina, SK: #3 to #24
4) Winnipeg, MB to Regina, SK : #7 to #24
At that point Superchargers would allow direct or fairly travel between all the largest metro areas except Saskatoon, SK, which is unfortunately off the main East-West path, but ...

5) Regina, SK to Saskatoon, SK: #19 it wouldn't take much more to connect those two 200k+ areas.

6) Winnipeg, MB to Sudbury, ON: not that much population along that _very_ long route. Yes, we all want completion, but surely there are priorities.
7) Subdury, ON to Ottawa, ON

I live in Saskatchewan and I like the way you talk.

A supercharger in this province would be the most progressive thing since debit cards or rotary phones
 
Generally, do it by the numbers.
[..]

Good analysis, though you are only looking in the one direction. What about large population centres that already have a significant "installed base" of customers who may want to *go* somewhere not currently served? This would be the reason why Superchargers were built in Barrie and Huntsville and Parry Sound, for people *leaving* Toronto (to cottage country). In this case: Edmonton has roughly the same population as Calgary, and I'm sure they resent having to go through Calgary to go anywhere. :) The Yellowhead highway west of Edmonton goes through some pretty stunning scenery, e.g. Jasper. It's very difficult to objectively prioritize routes unless you first decide what's important.

In any event, Tesla has already posted what they plan, and that's the Trans-Canada highway all the way from the existing "trailhead", so to speak, at Calgary, to Halifax (Enfield), via highway 17 (Sudbury to Ottawa). All "target opening in 2018". It's fairly certain that any other routes will happen later. As for what gets filled in first: if the future is anything like the past, local issues unique to each site will mean that things pretty much get filled in semi-randomly. I once crossed through the U.S. early in the buildout of the Supercharger network, and had the closest call going from Las Vegas to Beaver, UT (about 400 km and uphill) - St George, UT was installed months later. Likewise, I was just one week early getting between Billings, MT and Rapid City, SD, having to stop at a hotel with a charger to charge overnight. (Which was actually not at all inconvenient). I expect we'll see a lot of those sorts of temporary gaps as the Canadian Trans-Canada segment is built out.
 
Largest disconnected metros:
#7 Winnipeg, MB: 705,224
#14 Halifax, NS: 403,131
#19 Saskatoon, SK: 246,376
#24 Regina, SK: 215,106
#49 St. John's, NL: 108,860
#50 Thunder Bay, ON: 107,909

I may be misinterpreting your methods, but you're leaving out
#29 Moncton, #31 St. John, and #39 Fredrickton NB, all over 100k, and all presently unsupported by SCs.

(Also, Wikipedia has slightly different rankings than you gave, citing the 2016 census).

These would all be served by your route #2.