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Midsize SUV Sales In America

Discussion in 'Model X' started by scottf200, Sep 2, 2014.

  1. scottf200

    scottf200 Active Member

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    #1 scottf200, Sep 2, 2014
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2014
  2. Rodolfo Paiz

    Rodolfo Paiz P85 "Plug and Play"

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    I would add to this train of thought that the Model X also targets current minivan drivers. Lots of space, easy access, no big boxy shape, better driving dynamics.
     
  3. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    I predict that the Tesla Model X will reach monthly sales of roughly 4,800-5,000 units in North America by or during 2016.
     
  4. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    I think it will be less than half of that.
    Remember that the Model X is in the price category of the Large Luxury SUVs, not the midsize SUVs.
    The Model X will be between 50% and 200% more expensive than everything in the midsize SUV category.
     
  5. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    I stand by the notion that the Model X will outsell the Model S by a factor of 3:1.

    So if the Model S reaches 50,000 units per year...

    The Model X will reach 150,000 units per year...

    For worldwide sales.

    Tesla has indicated they expect that going forward North America will account for ~40% of their sales.

    200,000 x .40 = 80,000

    Model S -- 20,000
    Model X -- 60,000

    Please note the Model S outsells its nearest competitor in its price range by several units.

    I expect the same will be true of the Model X.

    As for 'everything else'... Have you seen the price of the Porsche Cayenne Turbo these days? It has a base price of $113,600.

    Meanwhile, the Porsche Panamera Turbo as a base price of $141,300. You can see its sales figures HERE.

    Porsche sells a LOT MORE of the Cayenne.

    The pattern is true of other competitors as well. Their Crossovers greatly outsell their comparably priced Sedans. I see no reason why that would not be true for Tesla Motors.
     
  6. Rodolfo Paiz

    Rodolfo Paiz P85 "Plug and Play"

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    Based on what I know of the available data, I'd be much more inclined to believe a number like Red Sage's, on the order of 3500 Model X sales per month (42K/year) in North America, than Richkae's "less than half" which would be 2400 Model X sales per month (29K/year). Of course, we're all speculating for fun, so who knows. :)
     
  7. iadbound

    iadbound Member

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    Sorry to ask the dumb question, but what class size is the Model X (Mid or Large)? If it's a mid-size, I assume it's competing with the Cayenne and similar vehicles. I note that on Tesla's Model X page it makes the minivan reference that Rodolfo notes above. As such, I come away not knowing the exact category, but feeling like it doesn't really matter so long as it attracts a crowd that is looking for a X-over, minivan or SUV electric alternative. Maybe that bodes well for selling a large quantity per month as Red Sage projects since it might cross many model type boundaries.

    Plainly, I should just with stick with the sedans. :tongue:
     
  8. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    Looks like Porsche sells 2x as many Cayenne's in the US as Panameras. Porsche Reports Best-Ever U.S. Sales In 2013 - @FlatSixes - the blog about Porsche
    The base Panamera is not $141,300, it is $78000. The base Cayenne is actually a lot less, which helps it sell more.

    The problem I see is that I don't believe that the market for $70K-$100K SUVs is big enough for Tesla to sell 60,000 units per year in the US.

    If you look at the data from Large Luxury SUV Sales In America - December 2013 And 2013 Year End - GOOD CAR BAD CAR
    The large luxury SUV market in the US is about 100,000 units per year.
    The top 2 entries in that list start at $66000 ( Escalade ) and $62000 ( Mercedes GL ), those are price competitors for the Model X - which will start at $70000.

    If you look at the mid-size luxury crossovers: Small And Midsize Luxury SUV Sales In America - December 2013 And 2013 Year End - GOOD CAR BAD CAR
    That market is larger: 460,000 units per year.
    However the top 7 entries in that market are all significantly lower priced than the Model X, so I don't think it is a valid comparison. Very very few people are going to cross-shop $40K SUVs with $70K SUVs.
    Lexus RX: $40000
    Acura MDX: $42000
    BMW X5: $53000
    Cadillac SRX: $38000
    Mercedes M: $48000
    Infiniti QX60: $42000
    Porsche Cayenne: $50000

    Tesla is going to have a hard time outselling SUVs that start at a price point $20000 and $30000 dollars lower.

    I think we should be really happy with sales of 30000 units per year - which would make it the top seller in the large luxury SUV class.
    I don't know what size category the Model X will be in, but it is very clear that its price competition is in the large luxury class.
    That will put a huge dent into Cadillac, Mercedes and Porsche that they will feel.
     
  9. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    Yes, there are less expensive versions of the Porsche Cayenne, BMW X5, AUDI Q7, etc. Notice I wrote of the Porsche Cayenne Turbo. That is because it is really the only one of these that might challenge the Model X in a parameter where it is rather unique -- performance. At the Model X Reveal event, Elon Musk was very specific that the goal of the new vehicle would be to offer utility, style and performance.

    Per both GoodCarBadCar and the FlatSixes website you linked to...

    The Porsche Panamera sold a total of 5,421 units in the United States of America during 2013. So far it has sold 3,945 units this year.

    The Porsche Cayenne sold 18,507 units in 2013 to US Customers. So far it has sold 11,744 during 2014.

    That makes for a 3.413945766:1 ratio during 2013, and a 2.976932826:1 ratio for 2014.

    I think that works out to a consistent 3:1 ... not 2:1 overall.

    The more-or-less 2:1 ratio between them was for 2012 -- but Panamera sales have dropped significantly since then, while Cayenne sales have grown.

    Once again, my point was that for each automobile manufacturer in the market, their sedan is consistently outsold by their comparable crossover.
    Porsche Panamera 400-500
    Porsche Cayenne 1200-1800
    BMW 7-Series 600-700
    BMW X5 2800-4400
    AUDI A8 350-480
    AUDI Q7 1200-1600
    I'm sure that pricing plays some part in this. But I think it is mostly that people prefer the larger vehicles, no matter the price. In most cases, there are more capable SUVs or Crossovers that cost less than these, if price were a primary consideration.

    The Tesla Model X is going to sell very, very well.
     
  10. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    You are right. I looked at 2012, not 2013. The Cayenne is outselling the Panamera 3 to 1.
    The Cayenne is significantly cheaper than a Panamera, so the comparison is not very meaningful.
    Porsche does not have a full model line of choices, they have no sedan options in the price range of the Cayenne.

    All the comparisons should be to the same price range.
    That also means compare the X5 to the 5 series - not the 7 series. 5 series sales in 2013 were 56863 vs the X5: 39818
    And the Q7 to the A6, not the A8. A6 sales in 2013 were 22428 vs the Q7: 15978
    The greater SUV to sedan model does not hold.

    Yes the Model X is going to sell very very well.
    There were only 100,000 sales of large luxury SUVs in the US last year. I am sure the Model X will make some people reach beyond their normal category, just not that many.

    I predict 30,000 Model X in 2016.
     
  11. Rodolfo Paiz

    Rodolfo Paiz P85 "Plug and Play"

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    Some people will come to Model X from a large-SUV preference, others from a middle-SUV preference. Some will also come from a minivan demographic, who always wanted the comfort and convenience of the minivan without the big boxy shape. And some, though of course not most, will stretch significantly to buy Model X due to its eco cred, or its perceived fuel savings, or just because it's too cool to let go. As "iadbound" notes, Model X is aimed at converting people from several market segments. I still predict 40K sales in North America 2016. ;)
     
  12. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    While there's just the Model X, it's just a CUV/SUV. When fhe Model Y arrives, that'll just be the more affordable CUV/SUV. Price will hold the ModelX sales back, but boy it's going to be interesting.
     
  13. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    Thank you for acknowledging this.

    My comparison was not based on price, but product placement.

    Porsche offers sports cars, convertibles, sedans and crossovers. They range in price from $49,900 (Macan) to $929,000 (918 Spyder Weissach). That's a pretty 'full line' by my estimation. The company apparently has an overall average margin of 50% on their sales -- a considerable markup as compared to Tesla Motors.

    The base price of the Cayenne ($61,700) is significantly lower than the base price of the Panamera ($78,100), true. That's a 26.5% difference in price. But there is also a significant overlap in pricing between the two, over their trim levels. There are versions of the Panamera that go up to $180,300 for the Turbo S and $200,500 for the Turbo S Executive. Meanwhile the aforementioned Cayenne Turbo starts at $113,600. So there is a $35,500 overlap between base pricing of these vehicles -- before you get to adding options. That puts them firmly in the same 'class' from my point of view.

    This is a very good point. It could be made a lot easier if sales listings were by specific trim level. It is not the point I was making though. I said 'comparable', meaning 'top-of-the-line' offering. So I was comparing the top model/series for Crossovers with the top model/series for Sedans within product lines. I was NOT comparing the top selling cars within product lines.

    I guess for BMW the top-of-the-line Crossover might be the X6 instead, from your point of view. I forgot it existed -- as has the buying public as well, it seems...

    But the top-of-the-line Porsche Crossover is definitely the Cayenne -- not the Macan.

    The top-of-the-line Crossover for AUDI is the Q7.

    Mercedes...? Who cares? ;-)

    Sure it does. It just matters which end of the telescope you use to look at the data. :-D From a pricing standpoint, it gets rather convoluted, and serves no purpose. From a units sold by body type perspective, it is plainly obvious that Crossovers are far more popular than either Sedans or Sports Coupes.

    I concur.

    This presumes a few things that I take issue with... First, that there is not 'enough room' or 'demand' in the market for another player. Second, that Tesla Motors sells 'luxury' cars. Third, that the Model X will be an SUV.

    1) I get SO tired of people claiming that demand for expensive electric cars is 'limited'. That's total [BORSHT]. In 2013 the Mercedes-Benz S-Class had a very good year of sales. They exceeded their 2012 numbers by over 12%. But they were still outsold by 37% by the Tesla Model S. Tesla Motors exposed a completely different market that was NOT being exploited by their competitors by offering a product that was in demand. The Model X will perform similarly in the market. Tesla won't have to 'find Customers' for their electric cars -- the Customers will find them. Just. Watch.

    2) Tesla Motors does NOT sell luxury cars. Check their promotional materials, website, YouTube, Vimeo, twitter, Facebook... They never mention the word 'luxury' anywhere. You can hardly visit any page of the AUDI, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Cadillac, Lincoln, Acura, Infiniti, or Lexus websites without seeing 'luxury' all over the place. Tesla sells Expensive Performance Economy cars. They cost a lot to buy (so far), are fun to drive, and don't burn any gas. The Model ≡ will be an Affordable Performance Economy car series. It won't break the bank to buy, will be fun to drive, and won't burn any gas. We can only hope that the price of batteries comes down to the point where Tesla can offer an Inexpensive Performance Economy car as well. I'd like that -- Generation IV, perhaps?

    3) The Tesla Model X will have the cargo capacity of an SUV -- thanks to the electric drivetrain and frunk up front. But the vehicle is a Crossover instead. It is not meant for spelunking over rocks, crevasses, and craters. You won't see video of it fjording rivers and streams. It won't be captured bounding over whoop-dee-doos in Baja. It will not be an off-road wonder, splashing through mud, muck, and mire in the Congo. The Model X WILL perform just fine on actual roads: concrete, asphalt, gravel, dirt, clay, and compacted sand. You will probably be able to traverse lawns and pastures with it -- but do NOT confuse it with a 'large SUV' because that isn't what it will be built for at all. It will be a Crossover Utility Vehicle (CUV), if anything. Besides, the posers in Los Angeles that buy it will never see off-road action in it anyway, no more so than they do in their Range Rover or HUMVEE.

    My presumption is that ~20,000 of the Model S would be sold in North America, out of the ~50,000 that would be built, during 2016. Your estimate of Model X sales is certainly fair at 30,000 -- but I see that as a bare minimum instead. It would certainly be acceptable if 75,000 Model X were built in 2016, and 30,000 of those were sold in the US. Stockholders would be rather happy with that. But I don't think it will be that low, amounting to only a 50% bump over Model S. I also don't think that Model S will 'lose sales' to the Model X either, though plenty have predicted that. So if 20,000 Model S are sold here, I would expect a 3:1 ratio, or 60,000 or so of the Model X to find buyers as well -- no matter the price.
     
  14. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    Ooh - a bigger Model X bull / optimist than me! I figure Model X is going to outsell Model S, at least in the US, and I believe in time by a healthy margin. I hadn't thought though in terms of a 3:1 ratio X:S.

    Then again, that's not at odds with how I see the situation. At least in the US, big picture, we sure do like big cars. Bigger generally being considered better - the only issue being that when you pick that big vehicle, you have to make a tradeoff between with the big fuel bills that come with it. The way I see it, many people tune the bigness of the car they choose to the bigness of the fuel bill they can/will stomach.

    Model X though is going to turn that math on its head. I'm assuming ~80MPGe for the Model X (compared to 89 MPGe for Model S). At ~80MPGe, the Model X will instantly be one of the 1 or 2 dozen most efficient 4 wheeled vehicles on the road, and I believe considerably more fuel efficient than many motorcycles (that's a weird idea to wrap my brain around).

    For people where bigger and faster is better, the Model X is going to be the very-few-compromises option. An even split between Model S and X would be the fewest number of X's that I see by about a year after introduction.
     
  15. Xenoilphobe

    Xenoilphobe Active Member

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    Bye Bye Toyota Sienna Limited! Finally a NAV that is not locked out while I am driving!
     

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