Saw this article from January in the FT earlier Military warns gas imports at risk - FT.com Never did think this "eggs in one basket" approach to energy supply was a good one.
Could Iran actually block and defend the Strait? They'd risk war but I'd imagine their navy would be no match for UK or UK with US help. Either way it would disrupt supply and send gas prices through the roof. It's a tough situation.
All Iran needs to do is to lay down mines in the Strait. That simple, hard-to-defend action would effectively close the Strait to commercial traffic for a week. Note that for a country like Britain that depends on both gasoline and natural gas imports, your fuel for either an ICE or an EV is at risk. Not a pretty picture.
Iran also knows that while they could close the straight for a week or so, that action may cause the destruction of their entire fleet and possibly their air force. That's why they're so hot to acquire the nuclear option.
That makes sense. We would demolish their conventional navy and air force and they know that as you said. Yet another reason to try and use less oil in the US and elsewhere.
True Robert, but the laying down of mines in the Strait would cause a severe "drop in real estate values" in Tehran...
Sometimes I can't help wondering if the blustering isn't just strategic below the line marketing to keep prices high. Note how the other oil/gas producers never have a word to say against the Iranians when they play their games. P.S. wouldn't it be great to be able to just turn around and say "Go ahead, you can block the Strait, we don't care..."
On Cnn there was a report last that showed that many oil-exporting countrys NEED high oil-prices! Else their income-balance would get in trouble. They would not be able anymore to buy themselves out of social unrest else! So when it's "RIP oil" it's also "RIP Iran, UAE , Russia & co" Zakaria: Why oil prices will stay high Global Public Square - CNN.com Blogs