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Million EVs by 2015... What's an EV?

Discussion in 'Electric Vehicles' started by EVNow, Feb 12, 2011.

  1. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

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    See this estimate by the government. The biggest surprise to me is the # of Fisker Nina's estimated. That is where all the money will go.

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  2. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    I wonder what they were smoking when they made that chart.
    I would bet money that zero Ninas are delivered in 2012.
    When I see any kind of prototype I might change my mind.
     
  3. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

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    They have just collated numbers that automakers gave them. Question is, what was Fisker smoking ;-)
     
  4. Nik

    Nik Dreaming no more :-(

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    Rolled-up $50 bills from their investors?
     
  5. Jaff

    Jaff Active Member

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    Kind of a bogus list anyway...list of Electric veh's when around 50% aren't true EVs.
     
  6. benji4

    benji4 Roadster 2.5 #0476

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    When you are loaning out billions of $'s, of course there is a need to be as optomistic as possible. It will be interesting to look back at this list in 3 or 4 years and see who hit their numbers. Tesla I bet easily hits theirs and will be selling another model or two by the end of the schedule that is not even on the list yet. Nissan and Ford can probably at least hit their numbers, and GM likely can as well. Even without Fisker who you have to have some doubts about, overall the chances are good for well over a million EVs on US roads by the end of 2015.
     
  7. Tommy

    Tommy Member

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    Per the chart, half a million of these "EV" sales will be from GM's Volt. The ongoing debate is whether the Volt should really be classified as an EV but rather a hybrid. Reaching a million EV's on U.S. roads not as doable as the chart suggests.
     
  8. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

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    Should really be called plug-ins rather than EVs.
     
  9. mattjs33

    mattjs33 Member

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    Note that this would only be about 1% of the total U.S. vehicle population.
     
  10. SByer

    SByer '08 #383

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    I've thought about this a lot since I got the chance to drive a Volt. It's not a plug-in hybrid in the same sense that all the others are - if you removed the engine and added battery capacity, the Volt would actually be a better car: the motor is the primary, and almost always the only, driving force. You can't say that about the other plug-in hybrids at the moment. The only reason the engine is ever physically connected to the drivetrain it not because it's necessary, but because it's more efficient. And, unlike the Leaf, if you set two parameters correctly, it actually drives like an EV with regen on the top part of the accelerator pedal.

    Is it a pure EV? No. But it's more EV than the Fisker. In some ways it's more EV than the Leaf, even (blended program on the brake pedal? Meh). It's most certainly not a hybrid in the currently commonly understood definition of the word (as opposed to the EV-nerd geeky technical definition).
     
  11. benji4

    benji4 Roadster 2.5 #0476

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    It really depends on how people drive it. If they drive in EV mode all the time, then it's 100% EV. If they never charge the battery and run it on gasoline everyday, it's 0% EV. The more expensive gasoline becomes compared with electricity, the more that people will be sure they keep it charged and run mostly in EV mode, that's for certain. It's hard to say that it's more EV than the Leaf though, because in that case you have no gasoline option at all. To say that the Volt is not an EV, however, is just not correct. It is 100% EV with the option of decreasing the 100% all the way down to 0% depending on the situation. Somebody could stick a gas-powered generator on the back of a Roadster as well, and I don't think anybody would say that the Roadster is not an EV anymore because of it.....
     
  12. SByer

    SByer '08 #383

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    I say it's more EV than the Leaf because Nissan purposefully dumbed-down all the potential EV goodness in the Leaf trying to make it more gas burner like. Stoopid, stoopid, stoopid. The Leaf can't be made to drive like an EV like the Volt can.

    Gas in the US will pass $4/gal this year, probably never to return to below that. Yes, I think just about every Volt will be used in near-perfect EV mode.
     
  13. mattjs33

    mattjs33 Member

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    I'm confused by these comments. Could you elaborate? I guess I'm not really up to speed on how the Leaf functions.
     
  14. qwk

    qwk Model S P2681

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    I think he means that the Leaf's regen is incorporated into the brake pedal, while the Volt incorporates it into the accelerator just like Tesla.
     
  15. mattjs33

    mattjs33 Member

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    So the Leaf has no regen on "coast"? Didn't know that, thanks.
     
  16. PaulM

    PaulM Member

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    The Leaf does have some regen when you let off the accelerator pedal although it is very light (similar to ICE car). You can increase the regen by selecting the ECO mode although it still isn't as aggressive as the Roadster. The MAX regen engages with the brake pedal. I wonder if Fisker will ever let someone drive the Karma so we can finally find out how it drives.
     
  17. Jaff

    Jaff Active Member

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    #17 Jaff, Feb 15, 2011
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2011
    I think you also need to consider why the consumer bought the volt...probably no way to calculate this, but if 50% of the Volt buyers chose the volt because the pure EV range of the Leaf was insufficient for their needs, then we can expect a significant number of Volt miles to be achieved whilst under gas power.

    Sure, some Volt drivers may be able to achieve their entire normal commute in EV mode...but my gut tells me that this will be the thin edge of the wedge.

    I think the mindset of the Volt buyer will be just like the Hybrid buyer...Volt = I have to travel 60 miles every day...with gas at $5.00 / gallon, thank God I can travel (hopefully) around 40 miles on electric...Hybrid buyer = I have to travel 60 miles everyday...with gas at $5.00 / gallon, thank God some of my journey will be on electric / electrically assisted ICE / and I rarely idle at stoplights or in congested traffic.

    I guess with the Volt's extremely limited electric range, you could call it an impracticle or barely viable EV...splitting hairs I think.

    Either way, without knowing how many electric miles Volt folks will be achieving, I guess it's open to debate...if they added a few GSM's to a sample of the Volt folks, it'd be an interesting exercise to see the average percentage of gas miles...some of those folks might second guess themselves if they saw that their required range would have been satisfied by the Leaf...


     
  18. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

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    You are probably correct in the long run - but the initial buyers are volt enthusiasts - and many of them have driven hundreds of miles without using gas.

    There would also be those who don't really know their own needs and will buy a Volt "just in case" they need to drive long distance.

    BTW, most Volt owners report higher than 100 mpg (effective) - so easily 2/3rd of the driving will be in EV mode.
     
  19. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

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    I didn't know the definition of EVs had changed ;) It is like saying iPad are not a computer since it has been so dumbed down.

    BTW, where the regen should be is a hotly debated topic. So, it is kind of weird to use this as the yardstick.

    Very unlikely. We will continue to have volatile gas prices - though inexorably hitting higher highs and higher lows.
     
  20. roblab

    roblab Active Member

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    A more efficient connection, maybe, but gas engines just don't seem to be able to get over 100 miles, or 150 miles with careful driving, on a gallon of gas equivalent, like electric motors can. (I got 164 mpge on my RAV with careful driving on back country roads once)

    The Volt is typical of GM, in my mind. It produces a standard truck, puts a big, heavier body on it, changes a few rubber hoses, calls it a Cadillac, and puts a badge on the sides and back "FLEX fuel", where hardly anyone ever puts E85 in it. Hype and mirrors and call it EV to cloud the issue. Sell half a million and run most of them on gas most of the time.
     

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