Mindmap of Model 3 Delivery Predictions By Quarter, Region, Groups

[RaWPower]

As we all wait with baited breath for the reveal of Model 3 on Thurs, March 31, I thought I mindmap my delivery predictions for the Model 3 based on a number of sources but mainly from what I've read in the forums here on TMC and podcasts such as Ride the Lightning by Ryan McCaffrey that explained his thoughts on how Model 3s will be built in Groups - Group A, Group B, & Group C on episode 33: More Model 3 Reservations Details Revealed.

I know this is speculative and depends on a number of factors.

What are your thoughts on possible delivery timeframes of Model 3s?

 

[tga]

You seem to imply that all west coast cars will be delivered first (first all employee cars, then all current owner cars, then new owners), followed by east coast, etc.

Based on past performance, I don't think that's how it'll work out. I think PXXD's will be delivered first, with prioritization west to east first, then employee -> current owner -> new owner.

In other words, I fully expect a non-current owner on the east coast who orders a PXXD will come before a Fremont employee who orders a base model, in order to maximize revenue.

 

[Vic4Model3]

+1

 

[RaWPower]

You seem to imply that all west coast cars will be delivered first (first all employee cars, then all current owner cars, then new owners), followed by east coast, etc.

Based on past performance, I don't think that's how it'll work out. I think PXXD's will be delivered first, with prioritization west to east first, then employee -> current owner -> new owner.

In other words, I fully expect a non-current owner on the east coast who orders a PXXD will come before a Fremont employee who orders a base model, in order to maximize revenue.

Appreciate the reply. I am agreement with you that higher performance M3s will get prioritization over base models. I'll have to adjust my mindmap accordingly.

 

[RaWPower]

Revised mindmap showing only maxed performance tiered vehicles. Basically, if you order a PXXD I predict there's a good chance you'll get your M3 in the perspective timeframe.

Q4/17
West Region
Employees
PXXD
Existing Owners
PXXD
Non T-Owners
PXXD
Q1/18
MidWest Region
Employees
PXXD
Existing Owners
PXXD
Non T-Owners
PXXD
Q2/18
East Region
Employees
PXXD
Existing Owners
PXXD
Non T-Owners
PXXD
Q3/18
Worldwide
Employees
PXXD
Existing Owners
PXXD
Non T-Owners
PXXD

 

[RaWPower]

Revised mindmap attached:

 

[RaWPower]

Disclaimer: The prediction noted above is contingent on a number of factors. If a minimal number of employees by the base M3 which is likely the timeline shifts in everyone's favor. Existing Telsa MS/MX will likely purchase more PXXD so non-owners who configure a PXXD will arrive soon after.

 

[Darryl]

As Tesla has said the most loaded cars will be delivered first, starting on the West Coast moving East. Let's call it the Model 3 P60D, then they will move east with these sales . They will then change the production line for the next least expensive model let say the Model 3 60D. Again they will start on the west coast and move east. Then they will change the production for the Model 3 50D They will go through the same process. Then they will change the factory for the base model Model 3 50, starting orders on the west coast and move east.

Employees and current Tesla orders will be first in line within each sub model.

As information of the current EV sales 40% are purchased by California residence. If they sell 200,000 cars it would probably be two years for the base sub models to be sold. .

 

[SureValla]

what determines if you are a west coast, midwest, or east coast customer? Address? If so can you make delivery address different than home address?

 

[Muaddid]

what determines if you are a west coast, midwest, or east coast customer? Address? If so can you make delivery address different than home address?

Good question... what if I decide to take a plane and pick up my model 3 car at the factory, does that move me up from Canada to US west coast ?

 

[villain17]

RaWPower, what about the south? Don't make me part of the midwest, man!

 

[SureValla]

Good question... what if I decide to take a plane and pick up my model 3 car at the factory, does that move me up from Canada to US west coast ?

I too am thinking of doing this but I recently learned CA makes you pay car taxes in that state even if you don't live there (there is a bill going through now to change this). Some have used Oregon as a delivery state to get around this.

My question remains though if this is even possible to move up your delivery date.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Not something you can really account for here, but what about the unknown number of orders that will be pulled back, because those people just couldn't wait, for whatever reason, to move into a Model 3?

 

[RaWPower]

RaWPower, what about the south? Don't make me part of the midwest, man!

@villain17 Tesla might put us Southerners in either Mid West or East depending. The farther West you are the better.

 

[RaWPower]

Not something you can really account for here, but what about the unknown number of orders that will be pulled back, because those people just couldn't wait, for whatever reason, to move into a Model 3?

@ModelNforNerd. Indeed. I believe core Tesla fans have more realistic expectations on wait times/delivery dates. Personally, I am expecting a March/April 2018 delivery given my region (SE region) even with a PXXD configuration.

Anytime before March 2018 due to people pulling their orders back then I'll be even more stoked.

 

[villain17]

@villain17 Tesla might put us Southerners in either Mid West or East depending. The farther West you are the better.

True. I had that thought after posting, but I couldn't figure out how to edit my post...oh well. Elon, if you're reading, TN is basically the same as California! Please

 

[Brad_SC]

Is there any reason to group the entire center section of the country together? Why not separate based on time zones?

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Is there any reason to group the entire center section of the country together? Why not separate based on time zones?

It really matters based on where Tesla ships the cars (via train), to be put onto trucks for their final voyage to Service Centers or home delivery for those living remote......

I would think the distribution center(s) serving your region is the main factor here.



Maybe a current owner can help us out/sleuth it down for us:

What are some of Tesla's distribution points once the cars are loaded onto a train?

For instance: I live 3 blocks from a major shipping depot for Subarus and Fords for the New England region.....where would a train full of Teslas unload....??

 

[SureValla]

For instance: I live 3 blocks from a major shipping depot for Subarus and Fords for the New England region.....where would a train full of Teslas unload....??

Planning an old fashioned train heist?

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Planning an old fashioned train heist?

Hmmmm..... nnnooooooooooo..........

lol