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Blog Model 3 Among Top 10 Best-Selling Passenger Vehicles in July

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by TMC Staff, Aug 7, 2018.

  1. TMC Staff

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    The Model 3 cracked the top ten list for best-selling passenger cars in the month of July, according to Goodcarbadcar, which analyzes sales data for the automobile industry. The report said Tesla sold 14,250 Model 3 Sedans in July, with it selling 38,617 year-to-date. That ranks seventh among all passenger car sold in the U.S....
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  2. JPWhite

    JPWhite Member

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    The revolution has begun.
     
  3. Ed Hart

    Ed Hart Member

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    Let's all remember that Tesla's July sales will be a historic anomaly, since June sales to US customers were intentionally delayed in order to extend the $7,500 federal tax incentive by an extra quarter. Good move, but may distort the sales analysis for the next year.
     
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  4. JPWhite

    JPWhite Member

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    Tesla have stated they want to achieve 6,000 M3 per week by the end of August. The 11,000 or so they held back represents just 2 weeks of production once this goal is achieved.
     
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  5. ℬête Noire

    ℬête Noire Active Member

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    #5 ℬête Noire, Aug 7, 2018
    Last edited: Aug 7, 2018
    It's only 14,250, that should be at or near July production as it's about 3200/week average. I also suspect their deliveries were delayed in July to some extent, too, due to the software problems issuing contracts.
     
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  6. Ajaykiran

    Ajaykiran New Member

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    I have been watching posts related to $35k car delivery and also been speaking with Tesla customer service when they called to tell me that I can configure and order the more expensive version any time now. They had informed me that the lower end model would be shipping by Q3. Here we are in Q3 now and I still do not see a sign of it yet. What is the update on this? Is $35k Tesla a mirage?
     
  7. Ed Hart

    Ed Hart Member

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    Thanks. Here is what is happening this month at all the major competitors. While we can confidently say that BMW is taking the biggest hit from Model 3, all the other guys are in pain, too. This is from a 2016 talk I gave on the impact of Tesla in the automotive market. Tesla Disproportionate Impact.png
     
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  8. lklundin

    lklundin Active Member

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    You don't state when you spoke to Tesla customer service, but according to tesla.com, the standard battery will be available in 6-9 months. Presumably, the base model will be available at that time.
     
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  9. ℬête Noire

    ℬête Noire Active Member

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    You missed one: "They had how much revenue this month???" - Toyota (Camry)

    The only way that the Model 3 isn't the top $ revenue passenger car in July is if the average sales price (ASP) for the Camry was over $30,000, which is very unlikely.
     
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  10. Ajaykiran

    Ajaykiran New Member

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    hi there -
    I spoke with Tesla in May 2018. They told me to wait for Q3 2018 for the standard battery. Has that pushed out further?
     
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  11. Ed Hart

    Ed Hart Member

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    Well....that portion of the talk was about the individual salesman and his or her role in the success or failure electric vehicles. They don't have the broad vision of a company executive. All they know is that someone came into their showroom, took a pitch on, say, a 3-Series, then asked something like, "Do you have an electric version of the 3-Series?"...then left.
     
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  12. ℬête Noire

    ℬête Noire Active Member

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    Sorry to hear you got stuck with a Scrub Sales person giving you bad info, even for that point in time. :( It's possible a few will be delivered at the very end of 2018 but those will be to people line waiting reservation holders. Don't expect the 220mi version until early 2019.

    I wouldn't expect them to make the $35,000 option available at the start of that, either. The first ones will likely require including the premium upgrade package ($5000 for the full glass roof, better speakers, better seat covers).
     
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  13. Ajaykiran

    Ajaykiran New Member

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    Yes, I am up for the upgrade package with standard battery. Even if that pushes up my car price by another $5k. You foresee that only in 2019? Thats disappointing. :(
     
  14. ℬête Noire

    ℬête Noire Active Member

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    A lot depends on how many 310mi cars with the PUP (premium upgrade package) they are able to sell in the months ahead. The sooner they run low on those customer the sooner they have to switch their manufacturing to include more variants. The smaller battery seems to be their first choice.

    They might open up taking orders for SR cars near the end of the year, but yes, unless you've been a reservation holder from early on March 31, 2016 it seems extremely unlikely that you'd get an SR delivered before the end of the year.
     
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  15. MXWing

    MXWing Active Member

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    It’s a fact that 2019 would be the -earliest-

    Could be even back half because the 3500 credit is still worth something to push against the highest margin Model 3s

    Tesla can decide to “match” the credit difference on the higher trims.
     
  16. lklundin

    lklundin Active Member

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    Others here have pointed out that if GF1 should become unable to produce battery cells at a high enough rate, then Tesla could choose to build three 50 kWh SR cars instead of two 75 kWh LR cars. If that would leave them with sufficient profit, then those two (large?) ifs could combine to speed up the SR deliveries, at least for some time.

    Edit: In the context of the uncapped federal tax credit, selling three SR cars instead of two LR cars would increase the benefit of that tax credit.
     
  17. ℬête Noire

    ℬête Noire Active Member

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    Plausibly but my instinct tells me the math doesn't follow, so let's step through a rough attempt at that. During the Q call Musk said something about being at 15% gross and trying to push to 20%, right? $55 ASP at 15% = $8250.

    Outside of the battery itself, there is negligible extra costs for LR over SR (maybe a bit of Sparks->Fredmont shipping due to loads being weight limited rather than volume limited?). Even assuming $140/kWh for both batteries the margin on the SR->LR leap is about 77kWh-53kWh = 24kWh * $140/kWh = $3360, subtract from $9000 is $5640.

    So now we've got:
    2 * $8250 = $16500
    3 * ($8250-$5640) = $7830

    The 20% will make it closer but....well go ahead and do the math if you want to see. In the meantime while they are chugging out the lower LR rate they have more room to pull apart and upgrade capacity for the future.

    This has no impact on Tesla's bottom line. Frankly, I expect the $35K-$40K car really won't need the full $7500 to sell very well.
     
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  18. SageBrush

    SageBrush 2018: Drain the Sewer

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    Exactly. I'll be disappointed if Model 3 sales are not double that figure in a year.
     
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  19. jkirkwood001

    jkirkwood001 Member

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    I've said elsewhere that I think Tesla has a quicker option to continued high ASP than finally introducing the SR model: start selling to EU and Asia. There are many many eager and frustrated first-line reservists outside of North America, just as many of whom, I'd expect, would be willing to pay high dollar for the LR and PUP models.

    I predict they'll allow people in the States to order at least the SR model (with PUP?) around June 2019 so those people get a decent rebate - and because they're getting increasing criticism for not offering it yet, especially since they reached the minimum volume of 5,000 / week to make a profit. It's no longer "Tesla will die if we begin selling the $35,000 configuration" as Elon said in Q1.
     
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  20. SageBrush

    SageBrush 2018: Drain the Sewer

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    Yes, but he did not say how the increased margin would be achieved. An easy guess would be the battery manufacturing cost dropping from $140 to $100 a kWh that presumes lower costs as volume scales. Sales of the low margin car increase the margin on the high margin car.
     

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