Blog Model 3 Among Top 10 Best-Selling Passenger Vehicles in July

The Model 3 cracked the top ten list for best-selling passenger cars in the month of July, according to Goodcarbadcar, which analyzes sales data for the automobile industry.

The report said Tesla sold 14,250 Model 3 Sedans in July, with it selling 38,617 year-to-date. That ranks seventh among all passenger car sold in the U.S. last month. The data includes cars delivered, not deposits or reservations for cars. The Model 3 outsold the Ford Mustang, Toyota Prius, and the Hyundai Elantra.

In fact, the car outsold the BMW 3-Series (3,185) and Mercedes-Benz C-Class ( 3,841) combined in the same period.

Tesla noted on its earnings report last week that the Model 3 is already the best-selling premium mid-sized sedan in the U.S., a segment that includes the BMW 3-series, Audi A4, Mercedes C-class, Lexus IS, and Jaguar XE.

The Toyota Corolla was the best selling car in July at 26,754 cars. Meanwhile, the Toyota Camry and Honda Civic were tied for second place with 26,311 vehicles sold. The Honda Accord was third with 24,927 cars sold in July.

Those cars cost significantly less than the $50,000 Model 3 that currently available, so it will be interesting to see where the Model 3 moves in the rankings once the promised $35,000 version hits the market next year.

 

[ℬête Noire]

I've said elsewhere that I think Tesla has a quicker option to continued high ASP than finally introducing the SR model: start selling to EU and Asia. There are many many eager and frustrated first-line reservists outside of North America, just as many of whom, I'd expect, would be willing to pay high dollar for the LR and PUP models.

I predict they'll allow people in the States to order at least the SR model (with PUP?) around June 2019 so those people get a decent rebate - and because they're getting increasing criticism for not offering it yet, especially since they reached the minimum volume of 5,000 / week to make a profit. It's no longer "Tesla will die if we begin selling the $35,000 configuration" as Elon said in Q1.

The rub is how long the manufacture-to-delivery window is for International (outside of Canada). My understanding is that it's several weeks, can be in the order of 2 months, to complete the delivery and get the revenue on the books. For example in Europe the tax & regulation situation is such that they need to physically rework the vehicle, at their facility in the Netherlands (assuming they do it the same place as the Model S), after it gets there. It needs different charging port and gear, and it needs partial assembly to bypass EU import duties. It's even worse in Asia.

It'd be very rough moving all of their production overseas. My understanding is right now they only ship Model X/S to International during the first month+ of each quarter, otherwise they'd have to carry that inventory over between Q and not realize sales until the next Q.

So yup, I see them using Europe etc. to keep their ASP up but they need NA sales in the mix as well. When they are getting close to bottom on LR+PUP the SR+PUP (AWD?) seems the logical next step.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Yes, but he did not say how the increased margin would be achieved. An easy guess would be the battery manufacturing cost dropping from $140 to $100 a kWh that presumes lower costs as volume scales. Sales of the low margin car increase the margin on the high margin car.

My money is most of it in the short term is adding to the mix the P (fat margin there, even if it's a low percentage of the vehicles), and to a lesser extent, the D. Plus these $500 bumps in paint pricing, AWD to $5000, etc.

EDIT: Of course there is that background of constantly working on the battery price drop. I'd be interesting to see where they are now. I'd be surprised if they weren't already a lot closer to $100 than $140, so the total cost reduction there is going to start slowing somewhat.

 

[Brando]

A lot depends on how many 310mi cars with the PUP (premium upgrade package) they are able to sell in the months ahead. The sooner they run low on those customer the sooner they have to switch their manufacturing to include more variants. The smaller battery seems to be their first choice.

They might open up taking orders for SR cars near the end of the year, but yes, unless you've been a reservation holder from early on March 31, 2016 it seems extremely unlikely that you'd get an SR delivered before the end of the year.

So many buyers SEEM to complain about the battery not being big enough; it was very smart for Tesla to offer LR first. Those who really can get buy with a smaller battery will wait to save money and get the smaller battery.

PS- Don't expect the press to point out "brilliant strategy to maximize profits for Tesla by Elon/Tesla Team."
Battery production is still the bottle neck for electrification revolution and storage products too.