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Model 3 and the genius marketing idea.

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No, the statement with the biggest impact will be when Tesla tells the media how many reservations they got for a car people haven't even seen a picture of yet - if they do open for reservations in stores before the unveiling event. :)

No, because for all they know everybody then cancelled as soon as they got a look at the car. They could start taking reservations now if they wanted, but it's all silly until they unveil the car.
 
Under normal circumstances, people would just wait until April 1st to order online. However, there are a LOT of people who want a guarantee of the $7,500 tax credit. It's like getting a 20% discount on the car. So the question becomes, would you go to a Tesla store on March 31st to get a virtual guaranteed 20% discount on your Model 3? I believe at least several thousand people will. If you divide by the number of showrooms, there will likely be lines at many showrooms. And that will attract the media. Then, the news stories will result in more reservations online beginning in April, resulting in more media coverage. The Chevy Bolt will become somewhat irrelevant until it's available for purchase.

I wonder if Tesla has a daytime event (~3pm EST) for Model 3 that is simulcast in the Tesla stores on March 31st, and if deposits only begin after the event? Otherwise, you might miss the event by going to the store.

I also wonder if the number of deposits per person will be limited? I'll bet there will be fleet owners placing 10 to 25 (or more) deposits each, beginning April 1st. Company motorpools, delivery vehicles, specialty car rentals, Uber and taxi services, real estate salespeople, etc.
 
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Many people understand that it is not just about ordering the car but getting the car.
And to get a car it has to be made first. And all the people that ordered it before you, has to get it before you. This takes time. And waiting.

Those who will be there personally, will get the car in '17 or early '18. Those who will order online will be lucky to receive it in end '18, early '19.

You sleep in a tent one night waiting or you sleep in your bed waiting for a year.
:)
 
However, there are a LOT of people who want a guarantee of the $7,500 tax credit. It's like getting a 20% discount on the car..

Planting my tent on 3/31 at my local SC will be my only option to secure the $7,500 credit.

You guys keep saying that, but there's no guarantee you'll get any tax credit. The M3 could be delayed (see "Tesla Time") all the while MS and MX buyers using up the last remaining tax credits. Sure, getting in early might increase your chances of a tax credit, but maybe not. If you believe Troy's estimates of 17,500 M3 owners getting the tax credit, that's just one quarter of combined MS and MX sales could wipe that out if the M3 is late or Tesla produces and sells more MS/MX that Troy projects.

I'd stop using the word "guarantee"... and maybe use "increased chance". Because a lot of people might read that and expect to get a tax credit, not knowing how it works or how close to the line it will be by the time M3 is actually sold.
 
And if you plan on ordering a modestly optioned M3 it might not matter if you have the first reservation number. Elon said that highly optioned cars will be built first. If there are 25,000 deposits and 18,000 are "highly optioned" your modestly optioned car would be number 18,001 off the line.
 
Many people understand that it is not just about ordering the car but getting the car.
And to get a car it has to be made first. And all the people that ordered it before you, has to get it before you. This takes time. And waiting.

Those who will be there personally, will get the car in '17 or early '18. Those who will order online will be lucky to receive it in end '18, early '19.

You sleep in a tent one night waiting or you sleep in your bed waiting for a year.
:)

I would only guess at a few thousand in store orders, which will be a few days production. The amount of production you are talking about would be much greater than the number of orders physically possible to take in stores in a day. And of course it only matters if you are going to get the top of the line, or you are going to be waiting anyway.

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You guys keep saying that, but there's no guarantee you'll get any tax credit. The M3 could be delayed (see "Tesla Time") all the while MS and MX buyers using up the last remaining tax credits. Sure, getting in early might increase your chances of a tax credit, but maybe not. If you believe Troy's estimates of 17,500 M3 owners getting the tax credit, that's just one quarter of combined MS and MX sales could wipe that out if the M3 is late or Tesla produces and sells more MS/MX that Troy projects.

I'd stop using the word "guarantee"... and maybe use "increased chance". Because a lot of people might read that and expect to get a tax credit, not knowing how it works or how close to the line it will be by the time M3 is actually sold.

And on the other hand, given the phase out rules the odds of getting the credit if you order online on April 1st are probably almost identical to ordering in store.
 
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I wouldn't want one from the first production patch anyway. They always have issues and the workers at the assembly line learn with them.
I had the same thought. So I'm hoping I hit the sweet spot by ordering a decent amount of options so as to get a several thousand vin number. I doubt I can afford a loaded one anyway. I just hope mine is not so far down the line that I don't get the maximum credit (and yes, my tax situation would cover the full amount).
 
It would be interesting if the reveal was either the night of the 30th, giving those attending the first crack at ordering, or literally at midnight.

Which time zone?

If PT, that makes people on the east coast having to wait until the galleries open up... or if they're open late, open at 3am to make it fair for everyone to get a reservation "at midnight". that's unlikely to happen.
 
You guys keep saying that, but there's no guarantee you'll get any tax credit. The M3 could be delayed (see "Tesla Time") all the while MS and MX buyers using up the last remaining tax credits. Sure, getting in early might increase your chances of a tax credit, but maybe not. If you believe Troy's estimates of 17,500 M3 owners getting the tax credit, that's just one quarter of combined MS and MX sales could wipe that out if the M3 is late or Tesla produces and sells more MS/MX that Troy projects.

I'd stop using the word "guarantee"... and maybe use "increased chance". Because a lot of people might read that and expect to get a tax credit, not knowing how it works or how close to the line it will be by the time M3 is actually sold.

Technically I said that people "want" a guarantee. I also said the early M3 depositors would "virtually" be guaranteed to get the tax break. Of course, delays and MS & MX sales could change the odds, but earlier deposits will always have better odds than late deposits.