Model 3 as a high mileage commuter car?

[crouch]

I drive about 28,000 miles a year and am trying to determine whether a First Production Model 3 for $50k will end up being much more expensive than a typical choice such as a mid-level Honda Accord for $27k. Troy’s estimator suggests I will get an invite to configure in about 3 weeks.

Am I going to get crushed on depreciation and have battery wear problems, moreso than depreciation and problems I would have on an ICE? Anything else I’m maybe not aware of about owning a Tesla? Is it safe to assume maintenance and insurance are essentially a wash?

As background, with the Model 3, I would qualify for the $7500 federal tax credit and wouldn’t pay sales tax in N.J. (saving roughly $1900 than if I purchased a $27,000 ICE). So total effective cost would be about $42,500 versus $29,000. Financing the 3 thus would cost more.

I figure I currently buy @1000 gallons of gas a year for my car. That would be eliminated (saving @ $2500 yearly on gas) but I’d be paying N.J. electric rates of around .15 kWh (at least until I get solar panels...). I drive fast (75-80 usually) and doubt that will change with the Model 3 despite the efficiency hit.

What’s the consensus? Roughly the same cost for a Model 3 over 5 years, $5k more, $10k more, miraculously less? I would greatly prefer the Model 3 but I do need to be mindful of costs especially since I go through cars quickly due to the mileage issue.

 

[Tiger]

See

• I made a TCO calculator for Model 3 vs Other Cars
• TeslaCost | Cost of Ownership Analysis
  
• Model 3 Could Change The World: A Cost Of Ownership Study | Loup Ventures
• Teslanomics: The Economics of owning a Tesla Motors Automobile
• A Simple Total Cost of Ownership Model for Anyone On the Fence | Tesla

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

If you're driving 28K miles a year in NJ then isn't adaptive cruise control a pretty significant desire?

The biggest problem with the Model 3 is that it's really unproven. We don't know what it's long term reliability will be or any data of battery wear levels over thousands of miles, and years like we have for the Model S.

With the Model S we have high mileage people raving about the car, and the reduced maintenance cost. With them it seems to be paying off from what I've read. With the Model 3 it's assumed it will do even better because it's a much simpler car.

As to depreciation that's a total unknown as it depends on the reliability of it. For low reliable cars (most german cars these days) people tend to avoid high mileage ones. So the resale takes a significant hit. With high reliability cars like a Toyota people just shrug at the high mileage.

As to total cost of ownership you'll likely save money over the LONG term assuming nothing ridiculous bad happens. But, will you actually own the car for that long? Probably not. Tesla has a way of dangling the next best thing in front of someone, and then you suddenly find yourself spending more money. Heck you're already planning on getting solar. That's going to take time to pay off as well.

If it was me I'd get the Tesla, but I'm more of a "you have one life to live so you should make it interesting" kind of person.

 

[crouch]

I’ve looked at those TCO calculators but most are outdated/focused on the S. The first one would be good but it’s in Canadian and I can’t figure out how to reconfigure Excel to reflect U.S. prices, etc.

I assume the high mileage S people are particularly happy with the free supercharging, which Model 3 won’t have.

I would like EAP but left it out for this comparison. Notably the Honda comes standard with Honda Sensing even on the $22k LX Model. (What is Honda Sensing® Suite? Features & More | Honda)

I’m not interested in the Honda but would like to know about how much more the 3 is gonna cost me. It would be great if I could justify it to my wife that we’ll be saving money...

 

[sommelier.erik]

I'm in the same boat as the OP here. almost identical situation with driving for work. I typically drive 28k miles a year in the Sarasota, FL area. I am a route sales guy and usually average between 60-100 miles a day, not a lot of longer drives. I'm looking at a CPO camry hybrid or the Model 3. I know this is a Tesla group but a little feedback of the pros and cons would be super appreciated.

 

[OCR1]

I'm in the same boat as the OP here. almost identical situation with driving for work. I typically drive 28k miles a year in the Sarasota, FL area. I am a route sales guy and usually average between 60-100 miles a day, not a lot of longer drives. I'm looking at a CPO camry hybrid or the Model 3. I know this is a Tesla group but a little feedback of the pros and cons would be super appreciated.

Do you have any specific questions? There are hundreds of threads on pros and cons of Teslas and EVs. If you could give us a little more to work with we could give you a more meaningful answer without writing a novel.

 

[tpoltron]

We ‘accidentally’ put 22k miles on our 3 in the first year (cause we kept hopping in it over our other nice cars). No issues or maintenance and super low running costs. Just get one, you won’t regret it. Especially as it’ll drive you around most of the time.

 

[camalaio]

You drive just a bit more than I would. I'll summarize the TCO work we did prior to buying a Model 3 (LR AWD). I'll skip the raw numbers as they're in CAD$ and it's the end result that matters more. Of note is that gas is expensive here, so if you have relatively cheap gas then this will be fairly off. I have a whole thread on this if you'd like more details: Is a Model 3 really cheaper?: A simplified analysis from an owner

We were debating either a new Subaru Impreza (fully loaded) or a new Crosstrek (fully loaded) alongside the Model 3. I gave the Model 3 every benefit of the doubt in terms of maintenance, accounted for some losses during charging (not enough for 120V charging though, whoops -- worked out fine once we got 240V), and did not consider the cost of battery replacement.

For the gas/hybrid vehicles, we accounted for oil changes, other driveline fluid changes, and a small amount of more major engine maintenance. I did not count a complete engine or driveline failure because in my circle of experience, it seems those with basic maintenance regimes actually have their gas drivetrains last beyond 250k miles. I used to pride myself on doing regular fluid changes etc. and not waiting until it was overdue.

In the end, going 40,000km/year (25,000mi), it would take 11 or 12 years to break even, then the Model 3 starts overtaking the gas powered vehicles in terms of total cost of ownership. Notably we're at about 460,000km (285,000mi) at this point, which is very close to Elon's optimistic statement for the life of the Model 3 battery pack and thus on the edge of a few thousand dollar bill to keep it going.

Here's where I'd adjust things in hindsight:

• Charging costs. For one, the car bumped us into a more expensive tier since we started using much more energy. Second, if you're charging primarily off of a normal 120V/15A outlet, you lose about 20% of the energy going to your car just to keep the computer and pumps running.
• Winter efficiency hit. I didn't factor in enough (because this forum was too optimistic!). On average, perhaps 35%-40% would've been a better efficiency loss estimate.
• Tires. The Model 3 goes through them faster because you're not aware of how much extra stress you're putting on them.
• Unpaid time off. To deal with Tesla Service's frankly disrespectful habits around rescheduling appointments the day before (I jest, but really is a factor)

After factoring real life of an EV, the Excel sheet now changes to 14 or 15 years to break even. We're well beyond 300,000 miles here and I'll be shocked if either vehicle made it this far without major work necessary at this point, so the TCO assumptions fall apart at this point. Basically, it would take the Tesla too long to catch up before a major component needed replacing, but perhaps the Subaru would need a rebuild of something too. Who knows.

Drive it if you want to, don't drive it because the TCO is lower. If best financials are what you're going for but you really want a new EV, there are cheaper options but I can't speak to their TCO or reliability. A Chevy Bolt for example is a good amount cheaper (here, anyways -- need to go to the dealership for the actual price though!) while still getting decent range. We unfortunately needed the extra range of the LR AWD Model 3 in order to make this viable.

That said, as a high mileage driver, the reduced routine maintenance is really nice. I constantly had a background dread of needing to do an oil change on one of the two vehicles (both were highway commuters to opposite directions every work day). Solved one with the Model 3, solved the other by working from home. I like it.

EDIT: My final words from the above thread:

Which brings everything back around to the original post: Long-term, you aren't saving money as a heavy commuter over buying a cheaper gas vehicle today. You've sufficiently worn out an expensive vehicle to the point where its value is significantly impacted, and your usage of the vehicle may require replacement of major components. Even if it doesn't, it's an 11 year old heavily used vehicle whether it's an EV or not, so you're going to have other types of major repairs (for example, suspension work) while only having just broke even with the long term costs of a roughly [CAD]$40,000 gas vehicle. Buy a Long Range Model 3 because it's what you want, not because it makes sense financially compared to cheaper gas vehicles you may have considered along with it.​

 

[camalaio]

I realized I didn't comment on depreciation.

This is anyone's guess. Teslas hold value quite well, but EVs in general hold value very poorly due to battery replacement costs. I suppose it depends how long you hold onto it for. If you hold on to it until the point the battery is fairly degraded, I'd personally guess the resale value is going to drop significantly. If Elon's guess of $7000 to replace the internal modules holds true, who is going to dump $7000 into an otherwise fairly worn out car? (I assume this is why current EVs tank in price as well)

 

[insaneoctane]

If you use a lot of gas or your gas costs a lot AND your energy costs can be low then you probably can select a Tesla Model 3 for about the same as a nice Honda or Toyota. You might even appear to save money, but you probably won't because tires, insurance and registration will prevent that. For me, in California my gas costs $3.50 or more and because of our solar, my energy is $0.12 kWh or even less. I'm hoping to break even (if Tesla continues to be as trouble free as it's been over the last 45K miles then I might even save some money) but either way I am driving a Tesla and this thing is amazing.

 

[Mo City]

Picked up my Model 3 AWD Sep 2018 and commute ~100 miles per day. At 34K miles now.

It is an absolute dream car for long commutes. No maintenance, precious little charging costs (compared to gasoline costs) and a joy to drive. People sometimes ask me if I'm still "excited" about the car. I can sincerely say my appreciation grows the longer I own it. One of the best decisions of my life.

Specifically for long commutes, the Model 3 totally kills it. A life-changer that will blow your mind.

Cons? My wife thinks the car is too low to the ground and wants me to trade in for a Model Y. Not gonna happen.

 

[sandange]

Cons? My wife thinks the car is too low to the ground and wants me to trade in for a Model Y. Not gonna happen

For about $1000 you can get a 1.75" suspension lift kit installed.
We did and are satisfied - for deep snow , easier entry, rough terrain, etc

MPP 1.75" Suspension Lift Kit OLD | Mountain Pass Performance

 

[sommelier.erik]

Thank you all so much for your help and advice. I live in Florida and gas is approximately $2.50 a gallon. I’ve been tracking my gas expense and it varies between 250 and $350 a month. I think that, based upon my job, I can charge at level two chargers all over town. There are also lots of level one chargers, and while I know they’re not as efficient, they are very very common here in Sarasota. I currently pay $.10 per kilowatt hour. It looks like the five year total cost of ownership, taking into account the resale value at that time should make it about great even with other cars, like for instance a Camry hybrid.

 

[Need]

Picked up my Model 3 AWD Sep 2018 and commute ~100 miles per day. At 34K miles now.

It is an absolute dream car for long commutes. No maintenance, precious little charging costs (compared to gasoline costs) and a joy to drive. People sometimes ask me if I'm still "excited" about the car. I can sincerely say my appreciation grows the longer I own it. One of the best decisions of my life.

Specifically for long commutes, the Model 3 totally kills it. A life-changer that will blow your mind.

Cons? My wife thinks the car is too low to the ground and wants me to trade in for a Model Y. Not gonna happen.

My wife also thinks my Model 3 is too low and too bumpy. That's why when we go out together, we took her Model X.

My Aug 2018 Model 3 AWD is also for commute. I drove 135 miles a day. AutoPilot is a game changer. Also I calculated that I spend about 12 hours a year in gas stations (over 100 visits) with my previous car. I haven't been in a gas station since 2018. And the car is so much fun to drive. Before, if I have to run to get milk/bread.. it was a chore. Now it is an opportunity drive my car outside of going to work.

 

[colettimj]

I'm in the same boat as the OP here. almost identical situation with driving for work. I typically drive 28k miles a year in the Sarasota, FL area. I am a route sales guy and usually average between 60-100 miles a day, not a lot of longer drives. I'm looking at a CPO camry hybrid or the Model 3. I know this is a Tesla group but a little feedback of the pros and cons would be super appreciated.

What % of that driving is on highways? I'm asking because my daily commute is about 40 miles round trip. Once I got the Model 3, I decided to take the slightly longer version of that commute since it allows me to use AP on the middle section (longest part of my drive both by distance and time). The benefit of being able to use AP on highways, to me, is an amazing benefit. I arrive at work less stressed and the traffic and neverending construction on I95 is now a big "meh" to me.

 

[golfpilot]

I drove over 40,000 miles my first year with the car. I rotated the tires once and filled up the windshield wiper fluid once. I'll likely need new tires at about 50k miles which will be the first big mx to be addressed. My electricity at home averages about .14 a KWh and about 90% of my charging is done at home. 5% is at superchargers. 5% is at free public stations.

 

[YusufT]

You would probably run through rubber quicker than your ICE counterparts because it’s heavier and more fun to drive so you’ll probably smash the peddle once in a while. However, that’s about all for cons in my opinion. Pros would be significantly cheaper maintenance cost, gas savings and more enjoyable drive (autopilot) for long trips.

 

[BobAbooey]

Don’t know if you pay tolls but ya get a discount for that in Jerzy. I did just over 25k in a year and I’m also in NJ. You will 100% love driving the Tesla..... nothing like it. Dude you only live 1 life ENJOY IT.... Trust me. Don’t buy a flip phone get the iPhone....

 

[pl8dlikafiddle]

I drive 60-80 miles per day on average, and I came from a 2014 Prius - my running cost for that car from new purchase to time of sale, including fuel and all maintenance (tires, oil changes I did myself) was $0.07 per mile. At this time, my Model 3 (using Georgia Power Tier 3 rates of $0.12/kWh ($0.09 + taxes/fees/etc)) is costing between $0.03 - $0.04 per mile - keep in mind this is just electricity cost since I've only had the car 6 months / 11,000 miles. Approximately half of the Prius cost, but that number is bound to rise once I have to purchase tires.

I am a believer of the Prius - this car is the cheapest hybrid to operate, and the base price of $25,500 is hard to beat (I purchased mine for $21,500 + tax/tag/title). Overall 5year cost of ownership (excluding depreciation), a base model Prius has a Model 3 SR+ beat by a long shot due to the higher up-front cost of the SR+. The roughly $14,000 base price difference between the two cars will have you driving the Prius an equivalent of 200,000 miles. If you priced the top trim Prius ($34,400) VS a Model 3 SR+ ($39,990), you reduce the mileage the Prius will have you driving to around 80,000 miles.

But this is not a fair comparison. A Model 3 SR+ with basic Autopilot has so much more to offer in terms of creature comforts, tech, and performance - even compared to a top trim Prius. If you haven't experienced even basic Autopilot in long interstate drives, it is a priceless, game-changing experience.

If you're wanting the cheapest possible TCO - a base model Prius is your best bet in my opinion instead of a Model 3.

If you're considering a luxury sedan (BMW 3-series, Audi A4, Mercedes C-class) - the Model 3 is a no brainer with base/mid trim luxury sedans in the $40,000 - 50,000 price range.

Compared to a CPO Camry Hybrid, you'll probably come out ahead since a CPO car has already taken a depreciation hit. The car would have to be in the low to mid $30k range to start coming out even @ 200,000 miles of driving for both cars.

 

[HighZ]

I drive 60 each way to work mainly on freeways which was the primary reason I bought my Model 3. I love using Autopilot both ways. I feel I am a much safer driver, also since I will stay at 5 mph over. My last car was a Grand Cherokee and I hated my commute, not because of the car, but because it was so stressful. As for the savings, I figured I would save around $6000 per year in gas/oil/service and spend around $1400 per year in electricity (based on $0.15 and 19KWh per leg). I haven't been to a gas station since I have had the M3.