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Model 3 - AUD/NZD pricing

Discussion in 'Australia & New Zealand' started by Chuq, Jul 15, 2017.

  1. Chuq

    Chuq Active Member

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    #1 Chuq, Jul 15, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2017
    i thought this snippet from Elon on twitter would be interesting - suggesting that the Model 3 would be approx NZ$50k:

    Elon Musk on Twitter

    I did a bit of maths... it was way better than what I was expecting. I thought $50-60k.

    NZ has a 15% GST where we have 10%. If Elon's price accounts for that:
    • NZ$50000 - 15% GST = NZ$43478
    • NZ$43478 = A$40793
    • A$40793 + 10% GST = A$44872
    Amazing! Of course in the USA, tax often isn't included. If Elon's number doesn't account for tax then:
    • NZ$50000 = A$46912
    • A$46912 + 10% GST = A$51603
    That's still the better end of the scale!
     
    • Informative x 1
  2. Miggy

    Miggy Member

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    I think the NZ$50,000 would be plus GST.
    Base Model S on Tesla web page US$70,000 = NZ$120,000 which is 70-75% which includes shipping and GST.

    Base Model 3 US$35,000 plus 70-75% has the NZ Model 3 at NZ$59,500 - 61,250 including shipping and GST.
    I was always thinking it would be a NZ$75,000 car after a few options.
    Hope I'm wrong the cheaper the better.
     
  3. Miggy

    Miggy Member

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  4. Burnt Toast

    Burnt Toast Member

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    It still costs a couple of grand to import the car, too.
     
  5. Chuq

    Chuq Active Member

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    I'm assuming that the number Elon gave out accounts for all those costs.

    My Aus conversion allows for the major difference that I'm aware of between Aus and NZ (the different GST rate).
     
  6. baillies

    baillies Member

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    #6 baillies, Jul 15, 2017
    Last edited: Jul 15, 2017
    I think the 50K is just 35K / 0.7 ex-rate. Using configurator S75 is $USD68300, div by .7 add $6000 transport/delivery and then 15% GST comes to NZD119K close to current 119500 in NZ configurator. Similarly using .75 + LCT and 10%GST get $AUD117K which is close to cost without registration and stamp duty. The $6000 is a guess but gets close and could be a little lower for model 3 due to higher volumes???

    So using 6K model 3 would be $USD35K -> ~$AUD58K inc GST but not stamp duty or rego, or ~$NZD64K. As always the big question is how much are the options like autopilot which could again be less due to volume (although S and X should reduce too) and lower price market positioning.
     
  7. Vostok

    Vostok Member

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    I've done linear regression analysis to produce a formula to convert US retail prices to AUD and NZD drive-away prices. By mapping the USD prices of every Tesla model to the AUD and NZD drive-away prices of the exact same model, you get a very tight relationship, and by definition it factors in everything - GST, other taxes, shipping, etc.

    The resultant conversions are shown below. The blue lines are based on known data points, the green line is the extrapolation. For AUS, the green line has a different slope to the blue line due to LCT kicking in above AUD 75,526.

    Using just the formulas, it predicts the AUD / NZD drive-away price of a Tesla based solely on the USD price within $140. So it is extremely accurate.

    This analysis predicts the base USD 35,000 Model 3 will be AUD 57,275 and NZD 62,067. This will change if the exchange rates change and Tesla re-calibrates its pricing. I simply re-do my regression analysis if that happens.

    The price of an "optioned" Model 3 would need to be above about USD 46,150 to start incurring LCT in AUS.

    NZ prices become cheaper than AUS pricing purely based on AUD-NZD exchange rates for cars above about USD 49,000 or AUD 81,200. This is due to AUS LCT overtaking NZ's higher GST.

    aud.png
    nzd.png
     
    • Informative x 4
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  8. SPadival

    SPadival Member

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    I just visited a few boring gov websites and put some formulas on an excel sheet and came up with this.

    Model 3 driveaway price in VIC.xlsx

    I tested it out by putting the USD price of a couple of Model S configurations and comparing the output to the AUD price on the Tesla website.. off by $600 to $2000. Of course, the exchange rate plays a big part in the pricing.

    Make a copy and see if you can improve on it + include other states.

    Reference : Elon's tweet Elon Musk on Twitter
     
  9. Vostok

    Vostok Member

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    OK, I've improved my AUD model. Why you might ask... well, the green line goes all the way down to (0,0), meaning a mythical USD 0 car would cost AUD 0. That distorts homologation, shipping and other base costs in bringing a car to another market and results in underestimation of the price. We see in the NZ model the green line doesn't go down to (0,0) - the offset means the mythical USD 0 car costs NZD 4058 to bring into New Zealand. So I use that as a guide to say the same should apply in Australia, using an exchange rate of AUD = 1.06 NZD, the offset should be around AUD 3850, but still join up to the blue line calibrated to actual prices.

    Re-calibrating the green line in the AUD model produces these adjusted prices for NSW (all costs included except rego):

    Model 3 Standard Range (USD 35,000) = AUD 58,200
    Model 3 Long Range (USD 44,000) = AUD 72,180
    Model 3 Standard Range Premium (USD 40,000) = AUD 65,970
    Model 3 Long Range Premium (USD 49,000) = AUD 79,950 (includes LCT of $1325).

    So the previous model under-estimated the base version by about $1000.

    tesla.png
     
  10. Rolond

    Rolond Member

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    I have done some number crunching comparing prices on both the US and Australian order pages in regard to prices of vehicles and accessory's and this is what i have come up with:-

    Tesla is using an exchange rate of .75 at the moment. I believe they reset this every so often (3 months? 6 Months?) or when ever there is a significant change in the exchange rate.

    They also add a charge of about $3900 US for shipping and documentation (In the US there is a $1200 Destination and Doc Fee) so the extra $2700 for shipping it to Australia sounds about right

    If you apply this to the price of the Model S 75 RWD on the US site ($69500) add the shipping charge ($3900) divide by the exchange rate (.75), and add the GST (multiply by 1.1) this comes to $107653 AU, which rounded off comes to price shown on the Australian site before adding LCT and on road costs ($107650), for 75D $114986 ($114950), 100D $148720 ($148750), P100D $211053 ($210950)

    If you apply this formula to the Model 3

    Base Model – AU $57053, with Stamp duty, CTP, and rego (QLD) AU $58876 (on road)
    Long Range – AU $70253, with Stamp duty, CTP, and rego (QLD) AU $72340 (on Road)

    Known prices for upgrades are, Paint (Other than black) US$1000 Premium upgrades US$5000 19" wheels US$1500

    The price for dual motors on the S is US$5000 so expect something in that range perhaps a little less as they will make a whole more front motors for the Model 3 than the S

    Also remember that once the price before on road costs exceed $75526 luxury car tax come into play

    Now the shipping charge may be less – it is a smaller and lighter car, and god alone only knows what the exchange rate will be in 18 months – pray that it is at the current rate (.80) or better for a period of time leading up to early 2019
     
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  11. Rolond

    Rolond Member

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    I did the same calculations for NZ and I turned up something interesting

    Tesla is using an exchange rate of .69 for NZ (you can calculate this by comparing the cost of US and NZ upgrades), but there is a considerable difference in shipping and delivery charges between Australia and NZ

    All in US$ - MS 75 $2080 (NZ) vs $3897 (AU), 75D $2060 (NZ) vs $3875 (AU), 100D $1920 (NZ) vs $3920 (AU) P100D $1660 (NZ) vs $3829 (AU)

    I am not sure why there would be such a difference, I would not think that it would be cheaper to ship to NZ as compared to Australia
     
  12. meloccom

    meloccom Moderator Aus/NZ

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    IIRC Model S pricing was\is slightly higher than simply the USA price converted to $Au, most likely due to shipping, which from my 5 minutes of googling is likely to add another $3,000 to $5,000 to the list price here.
     
  13. meloccom

    meloccom Moderator Aus/NZ

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    Moderators note:
    Model 3 AU\NZL price speculation threads merged
     
  14. SPadival

    SPadival Member

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    #14 SPadival, Aug 1, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 1, 2017
    How did you get LCT of $1325? I get $19.. hehe

    Link to ATO site for LCT calculation
    Working out the LCT on a sale
     
  15. alexeiw123

    alexeiw123 Member

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    #15 alexeiw123, Aug 2, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2017
    I (quickly) made my own calculator for NSW pricing - hadn't checked here first, but checking against the model S the prices come out almost exactly the same. It's not all that pretty but I think the numbers are as close as you can guess at the moment.

    NSW model 3 calculator

    Feel free to have a look and a play, you should be able to turn on/off different options and adjust the exchange rate used. At the moment, it seems as though Tesla is using 0.75c + 3900USD shipping on model S, so that's what i'm going with.

    SPadival - I haven't looked at your .xlsx but you should be able to see my LCT calcs in that link.

    Base car AUD 0.85 $53,141.24
    Base car AUD 0.80 $56,444.88
    Base car AUD 0.75 $60,189.00
    Loaded car AUD 0.85 $88,486.55
    Loaded car AUD 0.80 $95,486.19
    Loaded car AUD 0.75 $103,419.11​
     
  16. Vostok

    Vostok Member

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    OK I had a look into this and the answer is in my spreadsheet the extrapolations (using the correlation formula) require me to work backwards from the final estimated price to calculate the base price and other price components (GST, LCT and stamp duty). But I (slightly) stuffed up that step.

    Fixing that up...

    The Model 3 Long Range Premium (USD 49,000) = AUD 79,950 (includes LCT of $340).

    Note the final answer is the same but I had not calculated correctly the price components.

    The corrected base price including GST is $76,660. LCT = 0.33*(76660-75526)*10/11 = $340. NSW stamp duty = 1350+0.05*(76660+340-45000) = $2950. The total is then $76,660 + $340 + $2950 = $79,950.
     
  17. FlyingKiwi

    FlyingKiwi Member

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    Just joined the forum the other day.. I think people are reading a bit too much into that Elon tweet.

    One poster had suggested that the nzd base price was going to be $90k, and then someone asked if it "more like" $50k. $68k is "more like" $50k than $90k. I think any sensible analysis is going to put the nzd base price in the $56-59k range. $35k us -> $50k NZ +15% GST is already $54k, and optimistically another $2k nzd for shipping it down and delivery seems like a good deal.

    I will just hope that Tesla proves me wrong.. very very wrong please :)
     
  18. Vostok

    Vostok Member

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    FlyingKiwi - My "sensible analysis" above says NZD 62k. So you're close-ish.
     
  19. FlyingKiwi

    FlyingKiwi Member

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    $62k for the bare base model is a bit high IMO, I believe Tesla will be looking at aggressive selling by the time they start shipping to NZ, and if they intend to make a serious effort in NZ they need a decent volume of car sales to make their investment in service centre and superchargers worthwhile.

    I hope the bare base model comes under $60, otherwise the finance department might put her foot down and cancel my premium package. We shall see.

    We have the NZ election in a couple of months, Trump throwing threats of (nuclear?) war and a housing bubble that might be about to burst (in NZ).. so where the exchange rate is in 18months is anyone's guess.
     

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