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Model 3 Autopilot and FSD Abilities: what to expect?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by mikevbf, Apr 5, 2017.

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  1. mikevbf

    mikevbf Member

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    #1 mikevbf, Apr 5, 2017
    Last edited: Apr 5, 2017
    It is becoming more clear every day that the Model 3 is being designed as a car that will embrace autonomous driving. Where the S and X feel more like a bridge car that is evolving toward self driving, I believe the Model 3 will not feel complete until it gets there.The question is what do people expect the Model 3 process toward greater and greater autonomous abilities will look like? I do not believe the Model 3 will start completely ready for FSD with just regulations holding it back. However, I do believe the Model 3 will get there much more quickly than what we see now with AP2 hardware equipped Model S and X.

    What follows is my thinking based on the 3 main areas that enable Autonomous driving: hardware, software, and data.

    1) Hardware: I would guess that the Model 3 hardware will be at least as good as the AP2 hardware that is on today's Model S and X. In fact there are indications it could be better.

    2) Software: this one is tricky because Tesla is in turbulent transition replacing software they developed with Mobileye used on the S and X with AP1 hardware to its in-house software used on S and X with AP2 hardware. The latest update 8.1 shows that Tesla has made great strides with the software, but it also shows there is still a long way to go. My guess is that Tesla is currently throwing a lot of resources toward this developement and it will be way better by the time the Model 3 comes out and even better after the Tesla employees have received all their cars and deliveries to the general public start. But in order for even really well executed software to work well, it needs data which brings up the third category.

    3) Data: from what I understand the Model S and X with AP2 hardware were not able to take the S and X AP1 driving data and run with it. Each significant change in AP hardware requires completely new data. Please correct me if I am wrong on this. One of my questions is will the Model 3 be able to use data from AP2 equiped Model S and X if it has the same number and relatively same placement of sensors? Or because the body is different, the sensor placement will be so different, the Model 3 will need to start over with data collection? Regardless, because Tesla will manufacture the Model 3 at a much higher rate than the S and X, I expect the data will come in very quickly. This of course is dependent on how well Tesla executes its ambitious ramp up schedule. The faster the ramp up, the more Tesla on the road, the faster the data collection. This means that if all goes well, the timeframe Model 3 drivers will have to wait for Tesla to make new AP features public should be relatively short as should their refinement.

    Bottom line, I am very optomistic about the Model 3's autonomus abilities. I would guess within a year from when Tesla starts Model 3 deliveries, it will be FSD capable with regulations increasingly becoming the bottleneck we focus on.

    Note: I am not anything close to an expert on autonomous driving and many of you know a lot more. So have at it and set straight anything I got wrong and of course add your thoughts.
     
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  2. giarmdok

    giarmdok Member

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    I keep thinking we need major improvements in GPS maps and real time road updates long before FSD is a reality in most areas. Here were I am road construction/changes are constant and it is very common that no GPS is accurate on major intersections as the changes keep coming. And pulling you into a shopping center parking lot and having the car park in front of the store you want? Sometimes I feel lucky if the GPS gets me to the corner of the same block for stores in a strip mall. Sometimes the parking lots aren't even on the map - how will the car deal with driving "off road" if required to get to a destination?. Not sure if that is a mapping or detail problem or what. How do we get more up to date and beyond street level information?

    I think the technology is making major strides and Tesla is leading that but I have a hard time seeing it soon

    I keep reading reports the AP2 cars are hitting the breaks on the highway when seeing an overpass. Great - it will get white-listed - but what happens if you slowing down causes a rear end collision because its a new overpass and it isn't white-listed yet? I don't know about anybody else but driving distances here are measured more in feet than car lengths - slowing down 10mph because the car isn't sure what it is seeing is dangerous here. What happens if a road is closed for some reaosn - accident - sinkhole - something the car would have no knowledge about?

    I think what Tesla is developing is amazing but real lvl 5 autonomy seems pretty far off to me - not because of the cars but because the rest of our infrastructure isn't ready to give the cars the environment they need.
     
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  3. mikevbf

    mikevbf Member

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    Then how do you explain this:
    Tesla Self-Driving Demonstration
     
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  4. eisbock

    eisbock Member

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  5. mikevbf

    mikevbf Member

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    Propaganda or not does not matter. The car is driving itself.
     
  6. internalaudit

    internalaudit Member

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    The Leaf will have it by 2020, or says the Nissan representative:

     
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  7. eisbock

    eisbock Member

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    It drove itself on a route Tesla has likely driven hundreds of times. We don't even know if it actually was self-driving or remote control. I wouldn't be surprised if they electronically mapped out the route so the car would stay in the lane. Then you just gotta follow the rules of the road.

    I would take that video with a grain of salt considering current Teslas on the road can't even stay in their lanes on a well-marked highway. Once we see reviews and test drives by reporters, then I'll start doing some believing.
     
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  8. mikevbf

    mikevbf Member

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    In the first seconds of video Tesla states, "The person in the drivers seat is there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself." So if the car is being driven by remote control, Tesla is lying which I doubt.

    I am sure the route was highly mapped out before they did the video. That is how autonomous driving works. A huge amount of mapping data is collected by Tesla drivers with AP hardware equipped vehicles and software uses this mapping data. If you watch the video, the number of objects and variables it takes into account is staggering. There is no "just gotta" anything here. I can understand why the new cars need a super computer in them to ever be able to do this.

    Current drivers with AP2 hardware have only just started using the second camera of the sensors. As better mapping data is collected and more sensors come on line, the AP2 cars will start to approach what was demonstrated in the video. My predication is late next year. Elon believes by the end of this year, a Tesla will drive itself across the country. Elon's timeframes are always overly optimistic. Regardless, what Tesla accomplishes in short time frames with much less resources than much larger car and tech companies is still truly impressive.
     
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  9. jsmay311

    jsmay311 Member

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    @mikevbf

    I think you need to temper your expectations and read more threads about the actual real-world performance of AP2 Model S/X's already on the road. There's a LONG way to go before Level 5, if that's even possible with AP2 hardware. It's not even Level 3 yet.

    I suspect that any expectation that the Model 3 Autopilot will be significantly more capable than AP2 Model S/X's with the same generation of software is misplaced.
     
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  10. mikevbf

    mikevbf Member

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    Yeah, I'll admit I am pretty optimistic given the current state of AP2 Model S/X. However, I do not think the Model 3 will be on the same generation of software by the end of next year (18 or so months from now). By then I believe we will be seeing a very different picture of Teslas AP as experienced by Model 3 drivers. There will be a lot of them by then. What would you expect by the end of this year, the end of next year, by 20xx? Glad to hear your opinion.
     
  11. calisnow

    calisnow Active Member

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    You need to do some reading about how machine learning works and understand that the software is gradually and continually improving. It will get there over time. Just keep watching.
     
  12. zenmaster

    zenmaster Member

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    What do you think full self driving entails though?
     
  13. mikevbf

    mikevbf Member

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    Telling your Tesla where you want to go in the same way you might look something up on google directions and the car will take you there, drop you off, and go park itself.
     
  14. anonim1979

    anonim1979 Member

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    They need to fix - drive under a semi feature - first ;)


    Back to topic.
    There WILL be a CPU (full motherboard that is swappable, etc.) upgrade for S/X models with APv2 (to the one that Tesla is making with Samsung) as there's no way in hell (IMHO) it will be enough for Level 5.
    I bet that Model 3 will also go the same route.

    Anyone that already bought FSD will get that updated hardware later for free (there is no doubt about it - it is software that is costly not the hardware if you are the owner of all the patents, etc. like Tesla will be in a deal with Samsung).
    Those that buy it later may need to pay a little more (not only those 500$ if they decide for it after delivery).

    I'm realistic and I say FSD no earlier than in five years.
     
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  15. mikevbf

    mikevbf Member

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  16. zenmaster

    zenmaster Member

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    You are smoking crack rock if you think it will happen next year.
     
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  17. chillaban

    chillaban Active Member

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    What... the... ****

    Isn't Nissan ProPilot using MobileEye tech?
     
  18. malcolm

    malcolm Active Member

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    I think the purpose of Tesla's Self Driving Demo video was less Look-Ma-No-Hands and more Look-Ma-No-Lidar.
     
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  19. mikevbf

    mikevbf Member

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    You feel better now. You might check the post I did before yours :). Please share your thinking around timing and expectations. That is what this thread is about.
     
  20. zenmaster

    zenmaster Member

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    Ok level 4 is doable in near term. Full self driving like you describe - with identification of appropriate parking space, etc is maybe 30 years out depending on whether or not the system gets help from infrastructure accommodations for these vehicles. IMO, you can't say level 5 is done if it can only handle limited, sanitized or pre-approved areas or if it fails (i.e. misses optimum route) where an unaided human would easily succeed.

    I'd be interested in how it handles a parking garage with ticketing and gates, or guard posts.
     
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