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Model 3 Average Selling Price Predictions

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Paul Carter, Aug 27, 2016.

  1. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter Active Member

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    #1 Paul Carter, Aug 27, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2016
    I wanted to try and take a first crack on predicting the Average Selling Price (ASP) of the Tesla Model 3 based on the data collected with Model3Tracker.Info thus far. I started with @farzynessAttempting to price out options for Model 3 post and took a spin on it with my guesstimates of pricing to come up with this.

    I broke out Tesla owners from the data to see the impact of current ownership on ASP. Looks like current owners may spend about 6.7% more on the Model 3 vs. the general public.

    Assumptions
    • 30% pricing reductions by economies of scale (including the goal of reducing the battery production costs).
      • Larger battery pricing (also assuming only two sizes)
      • to upgrade from base 60 kWh to a larger 75 kWh battery for the Model X its 9k and 8.5k for S
      • Using 70% of pricing of an S would work out to 5.95k
      • Rear vs. All Wheel Drive, Performance Drive Train, Ludicrous, Paint, Wheels, Décor, Sub Zero, etc.. all based similarly on 70% of the S.
      • Model3Tracker.info is missing Seats, Décor, and high amperage charger configuration options and thus those mixes are my guesstimates (and trying to not throw off the Current owners mix too much.)
    Feedback welcomed and appreciated. I'd like to update the model based on general consensus (if we can obtain something like that!).

    This is a rough draft and may not be circulated or publicated.
    [​IMG]
     
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  2. BluestarE3

    BluestarE3 Active Member

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    I guess Elon's $42,000 works for me as a SWAG for the average price of a Model 3, since no one outside of Tesla currently knows the prices for any of the options.
     
  3. SageBrush

    SageBrush Active Member

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    Interesting table!

    There are only a few options that bring in a lot of revenue to Tesla ... or so I kept thinking, until I multiplied by 400,000 ;-)
     
  4. FirstSea

    FirstSea Member

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    Thanks for the analysis.

    Now imagine if a fully loaded 3 is less than $82k (which I doubt), time will tell.
     
  5. davidc18

    davidc18 Member

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  6. Sharkbait

    Sharkbait Member

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    Performance, nicely configured, still > $70K as >70% have already predicted.
     
  7. ModelNforNerd

    ModelNforNerd Active Member

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    I'd love if these numbers were close. That would mean I'll have enough in the bank by the end of next month to buy my Model 3 outright at delivery.

    And the proceeds from the sale of my current car would go right back into the bank.

    :cool::cool::cool:
     
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  8. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Active Member

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    I thought this horse was already dead.
     
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  9. nebster

    nebster New Member

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    Never believe the internet.

    On car forums - Everyone is "for sure" going to buy it, as long as X, Y and Z are included. Manufacturer creates a vehicle with X, Y and Z, forum posts lament lack of ~. Or, too expensive, I'm going to buy a used 1999 model for $3k.

    On Craigslist - Everyone is going to "meet you at 9pm". Show up at 9pm, text the buyer you're there, and then all of a sudden you're having a text conversation with yourself.

    On Golf club reviews - Everyone gained "an easy 20-30 yards on their drive" with their new driver. By this point, I should be running for cover on the green on par 5s just in case someone bombs a 500 yard drive.

    On the Model 3 configurations - I'm going to spec the car with $30k in options. Oh by the way, I can't afford the car if the $7,500 tax credit disappears. Oh and, I always get a refund on my taxes at the end of the year, does this mean I won't qualify for the tax credit?

    Point is - $50K ASP based on prospective buyers playing with an online config is inflated. Actual ASP will be lower.
     
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  10. ModelNforNerd

    ModelNforNerd Active Member

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    Which is why Elon already said $42,500
     
  11. D.E.

    D.E. Member

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    Pricing my model 3, Ludicrous, Autopilot 5, Matte paint, Premium decor, Premium interior, Smart suspension, Ultra high fidelity sound, Leather. I'm new on the reservation list so I doubt any tax incentive will exist by the time mine gets delivered.
    $81,150
    This is based on Paul Carter's rough draft spreadsheet with the new Autopilot information added.

    Screen Shot 2016-10-20 at 11.03.41.png
     
  12. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Active Member

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    Where did he say that? Do you have a link?
     
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  13. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Active Member

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    This is incorrect for many reasons. Tesla does not price their cars like this.
     
  14. ModelNforNerd

    ModelNforNerd Active Member

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  15. Garlan Garner

    Garlan Garner Active Member

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  16. ModelNforNerd

    ModelNforNerd Active Member

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    that's exactly what i was referring to.

    I never said the base price would be $42,500. My comment was in reply to someone else's comment about...
    wait for it....ASP.

    Average Sale Price.
     
  17. D.E.

    D.E. Member

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    So what's your best guess for a model 3 configured this way?
     
  18. D.E.

    D.E. Member

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    Tesla prices cars exactly like this. The only question is the estimates used where the official price hasn't been announced. Now that I have a ballpark price, I need to figure out whether to go with a Self Drive S60D now or a very much quicker Self Drive Model 3 in about two years. Using the Model 3 estimate of $81,150 with no energy credit against the S60D with the $7500 energy credit, I'm looking at an S60D price of $83,000.

    About 2 weeks ago Tesla removed white as a base color option so now the only non premium color available is black. The closest to white is now the white pearl coat, a $1500 option, that's priced in.
     

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  19. Zaphod

    Zaphod Galaxy President (former)

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    There is no "correct" or "incorrect" at this point because there is no finalized, definite pricing. No one said it was accurate and gospel at this point. BUT I think most of us can argue that those prices seem to make sense and best approximations that can be made at this time.

    Sure, will things be bundled together, will things be cheaper, will things be more expensive? Of course. We don't have a crystal ball or time machine that can give us the answers we want, so assumptions and best judgment is prudent at this point. Best we can do.

    D.E., in my opinion your spec build and estimated price of $81.5K should be close, using the assumptions we are using now. Give or take a few thousand, but don't see being substantially off.
     

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