Model 3 batteries in S and X

[oscarricher]

Hi
still a newbie to tesla specs but I hear M3 has higher density battery packs than current S and X's. I am looking at getting a 75D Mx soon, but thinking I should hold back so that Tesla updates all batterys to the new density thus giving better range etc, esp if I can only afford the 75 option. Is this what other people think or would tesla just stick to same batteries for now/short term?

 

[Derek Kessler]

Nobody truly knows and Tesla will not telegraph when this move is coming.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

There is a rumor from last summer of Tesla testing 130 kWh batteries in Model S or X. This would speculatedly require the Model 3 (2170) cells to work out.

Given Tesla's delays at the Model 3 battery manufacturing Gigafactory, though, such batteries could be delayed. Assuming the rumor had anything to it in the first place...

There is a rather persistent rumor that Tesla might facelift the Model S/X interior around Q2/2018. Whether that could have anything to do with batteries too, perhaps not. Who knows.

 

[ChadS]

It is not certain that consumers will see more range if Tesla switches cells. It is possible, but uncertain. They may instead choose to go with a little space and weight savings and, mostly, lower costs for them. Given past behavior they will likely not pass lower costs on to the consumer, although they might increase content.

My guess would be that the lower end range will stay about the same and Tesla will increase margins by using cheaper batteries to get that range. They will likely increase upper end range a bit. But of course I am just guessing.

In addition to not knowing what Tesla will do, nobody has any idea when they will do it. How long is their Panasonic contract for the current batteries in the S/X? How fast can they ramp up the new cell production at the Gigafactory - and how much of that is going to Powerwalls, Model 3, etc? Have they even started the tooling to stuff the new cells in to the S/X cases? It could still be a long time before they make the switch.

 

[HankLloydRight]

There is a rather persistent rumor that Tesla might facelift the Model S/X interior around Q2/2018.

Yes, I see the rumor has been updated.. it used to be Q32017 (at the M3 launch)... then Q42017 (at the Semi reveal).. now I see it's up to Q2-2018.

 

[oscarricher]

thanks for the words, nice to hear your views

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Yes, I see the rumor has been updated.. it used to be Q32017 (at the M3 launch)... then Q42017 (at the Semi reveal).. now I see it's up to Q2-2018.

No, what you are referring to is past speculation (which indeed did place interior redesign around Q4-Q1/2018, so Q2 would be late if so).

There actually now is a rumor about Q2/2018. Someone claiming to have an insider contact.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Someone claiming to have an insider contact.

Rumours, speculation, tomoto, tomato... it's all the same thing.

And it's always someone "with insider contact."

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Rumours, speculation, tomoto, tomato... it's all the same thing.

And it's always someone "with insider contact."

In this case the Q4-Q1/2018 speculation was mine. I have no insider contact, just whatever tidbits have been floating public - and putting two and two together.

The Q2/2018 rumor, though, comes from someone on TMC who claims to have an insider contact. I find the rumor plausible (given that it sits fairly close to my own speculation), but have no way of estimating its reliability.

 

[Derek Kessler]

I find the rumor plausible (given that it sits fairly close to my own speculation), but have no way of estimating its reliability.

Beware the confirmation bias. It's really hard to do, but you should question any unbacked rumor/speculation that neatly aligns with your own thoughts.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Beware the confirmation bias. It's really hard to do, but you should question any unbacked rumor/speculation that neatly aligns with your own thoughts.

Oh, sure, I am as susceptible as any. But my nose on Tesla rumors hasn't exactly been terrible in the past either. I believed in the plausibility of Eds (Model X delays in late 2015 and initial volumes being super-low, Model X door changing from hydraulic to electric - all later confirmed true), I believed in the plausibility of the noseconeless Model X design rumor and then made concepts of that for TMC (again was found to be true), I was the first to talk Drive PX and Tesla here, and I broke the adaptive spoiler for Model X. Few believed these at the time, I found them plausible.

That doesn't mean I believe every rumor or find them as plausible. For example, I find new interior in Q2/2018 much more likely than a 130 kWh battery then. Both are plausible, but the battery situation is too much in flux to say much. Tesla may well be testing 130 kWh, but what their Model S/X battery strategy for 2018 is, is very unknown. The Model 3 delays may have additionally thrown all that battery stuff into disarray.

In order of likelihood IMO:

New interior > HUD > 130 kWh > Promised Model S sunvisor light retrofits for free happening.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

For full accountability, here is a summary of my (older) speculation and the rumo from @CraZ8:

Tesla will take whatever they learned with Model 3 to Model S/X. This has yet to happen, so the extent of it can not be assessed. IMO the timeline always included at least Q1/2018.

I would accept, though, that if nothing major happens in Q1/2018 regarding the interior, then we got the timeline speculation wrong.

In the same boat waiting for the upgrade but as I and others have stated before it is definitely slated for 2nd quarter of 2018 and no hoping or praying is going to change that. If anything if there are problems with model 3 production or the gigafactory I can see this stretching out later into the 3rd quarter. But my source says it’s in the works most definitely. The only question is the exact release date.

If @CraZ8 is right, and I find it plausible, then my speculation would have missed the timing. I guess we also need to note @CraZ8 mentiones tue Q2-Q3/2018 timeline and that exact date may yet to be set.

There's a bit more commentary on @CraZ8's source's reliability in the thread.

 

[Julie's MS]

Has anyone heard anything regarding the new cells for the Model S & X?

I would have thought Tesla would have wanted to switch over to the new cells to improve range and simplify ordering and lower over all cost.

I can understand Tesla would have to make some changes to the Model S and X in order to accommodate the new cells and battery packs.

Maybe when they offer the model 3 with AWD we might see the new Battery packs? Only guessing have no idea

Tesla Model S, X has no plans to use 2170 battery cells, says Musk

 

[Xminus6]

They’re going to have to rebalance the line-up at some point. The LR Model 3 gets such huge mileage out of a smaller battery pack that it’s actually odd now that their “cheapest” car has the longest range. I drove round-trip into the city last week, 40 miles round trip, and my average consumption was 230Wh/mile. If I had taken my X on that same route, which I used to do, it would average in the high 300s. As a X90D owner and a LR Model 3 owner, I am eagerly awaiting the updated Long-Range Model X.

 

[Brovane]

The Model 3 delays may have additionally thrown all that battery stuff into disarray.

I would say that is the main pacing item driving the updated Model S and X announcement.