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Model 3 Battery Size

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Kevin Harney, Apr 8, 2015.

  1. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

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    All this discussion on the Model S 70D has me thinking.

    If the Model S 60 was physically the same size battery as the 85 and it had fewer cells in it leaving empty space. Perhaps the physical size of it could be reduced and the old 60kWh battery could fit in the base Model 3.

    The performance versions of the Model 3 could be the new chemistry and have more kWh in the same space as the new 60kWh battery.

    Thoughts ?
     
  2. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    I have posted my thoughts on this extensively in the Future Cars section here, and in the General forum at the Tesla Motors website. I believe that the physical size/shape of the Model ≡ battery pack will be of no major concern. What matters most is its minimum capacity and overall weight.

    If the same level of power density increases between Generation I (Roadster) and Generation II (Model S & Model X) take place as improvements moving to Generation III (Model ≡)... That would make for a ~40% advancement beyond what was introduced in 2012 when the mass market cars arrive in 2017. So, even if the size/shape of the individual battery cells does not change, the weight and volume of a 60 kWh capacity battery pack would be significantly optimized for Model ≡.

    That would yield improvements in range, more compact and efficient use of vehicle volume, better cargo capacity, and excellent interior cabin space without giving up nimble, ready, and willing performance. Imagine a car with exterior dimensions only slightly larger than a BMW 3-Series, but with the interior space of a Toyota Avalon or Lexus ES. Even without an all-aluminum construction, the lighter weight and sleek aerodynamics may allow a 225-250 mile EPA rated range with only a 60 kWh battery pack.

    Combined with a drivetrain that produced no less than 300 HP, the base Model ≡ would have performance to match or surpass BMW 335i at a 320i price point. Those who expect a wimpy, sub-200 HP, front wheel drive, under 150 mile range, substandard weirdmobile will be sorely disappointed. Obviously, I am not a member of the League of Lowered Expectations.
     
  3. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

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    Many people have stated to expect a minimum battery of about 55-60kWh in the Model 3 for at least 200 miles. Elon recently stated that 200 REAL WORLD miles is the minimum for a car so EPA of 230-240 which is EXACTLY what they just made the base Model S. That would make the previously developed 60kWh battery for the Model S a prime candidate. Reduces R & D and delivers what is necessary.
     
  4. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    The Model 3 should be much lighter so agree they can get away with a smaller battery pack. Has anyone noticed if you do a search for ≡ on TMC there are no hits?
     
  5. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

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    Yes that has been pointed out at naseum by the moderators but a certain few continue to use it on principle.
     
  6. Bulletproof

    Bulletproof Vendor

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    I think what we need to keep our eyes on is the renewed interest in the battery swapping development. Since we are hearing more about it and can presume Tesla will continue the development, then we can only assume the battery pack will be similar to that of the Model S so that the logistics are simplified at the swap station. In this case, the 60 kWh pack n the previous Model S should be the base for the Model III.
     
  7. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    yep=) Anyway, the Model 3 will be a much smaller car so assuming they keep the battery in the floor like the Model S they might have to go with the newer density cells anyway.
     
  8. Kevin Harney

    Kevin Harney Active Member

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    My point was that some of the pack is unused in the 60kWh battery so if they reshaped it they might be able to use it on the smaller Model 3. Also the older cells will be cheaper. Personally I will go for the P85D version of the Model 3 so I don't think it will apply to me but makes a good base level car. How much space do the 2 unused modules in the 60kWh battery use ?
     
  9. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    Ah, that makes sense. Assuming the Model 3 cells come from the Gigafactory I wonder if it would be cheaper to simply make all packs with the same type of cell.
     
  10. Twiglett

    Twiglett Single pedal driver

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    The Model 3 is supposedly 20% smaller than Model S - aaand 20% off a 85K pack is 68K.
    Economies of scale keep being touted as part of the cost reductions as well as not having to redevelop already proven tech.
    So does that mean we will see "approximately" 70K pack in Model 3 rather than creating a whole new pack?
     
  11. the dude

    the dude Member

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    I think most of us are just talking about the base pack for the model 3, I think it will be a 60kwh pack which will get a solid 200 mile range and will be perfect for supercharging

    but there will of course be other versions of the model 3, I think there will be a 70kwh pack and maybe 80kwh if thats possible

    so IMO the new 70kwh model S will only be built until the model 3 goes on sale and by then the base model S will be a 90kwh pack

    they may not want too close an overlap between the base model S and the fully loaded model 3
     
  12. BrianC

    BrianC Member

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    They better use the Giga to make the batteries! They sure as heck didnt build that thing to host roller coasters. Well, depending on how far down you press the accelerator that is.
     
  13. MarkR

    MarkR Member

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    In light of the lighter vehicle weight and the significant amount of research into increasing energy density of batteries, isn't it probable that a 80kWh battery pack will fit into a car that is 20% smaller than a MS? There is a crazy amount of well-funded research in battery technology that I'm sure Tesla is closely following (nanotech, Lithium-Sulfur, Lithium-Oxygen, Sodium-Oxygen, Magnesium-Ion, breathing batteries of various types, etc.).
     
  14. TomServo

    TomServo Member

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    Is this "200 mile range" ideal weather range or worse case winter range?
     
  15. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    It's EPA rated range. So, not driving-slowly-through-southern-Florida-in-winter ideal, but on the good side of average.
     
  16. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    JB Straubel stated that he observed a ~40% improvement in energy density for lithium-ion battery cells between 2007 and 2012. If we presume a similar improvement from 2012 through 2017, then a 60 kWh battery pack would take up much less space, use fewer cells, and weigh far less than today. The result would be lower cost and improved range. With new cells being provided by the Gigafactory, costs would be even lower.

    Because of this, I am very confident of the minimum specifications for Tesla Model ≡. And, as an eternal optimist, I hold out hope for higher capacity options. Both for the sake of range and performance. But wouldn't it be nice if Tesla Motors managed to up the ante, by offering a 100 kWh battery pack standard on Generation III vehicles? That would certainly serve notice to traditional automobile manufacturers.
     
  17. Trev Page

    Trev Page Member

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    Elon has stated Model 3 will be offered with battery back options (video from October 2013):
    Tesla Motors challenges German Carmakers in their Home Country 2/2 - YouTube

    Battery pack statement starts at 2.58
     
  18. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    My point really is that so far Elon Musk and Tesla Motors have routinely underestimated the commitment that Tesla Enthusiasts have toward having as much range as possible. They honestly believed that the majority of buyers would be budget conscious. So, they wagered most would get the Model S 40, a good portion would move up to the Model S 60, and that a minority of performance enthusiasts would opt for the top-of-the-line Model S 85. They were surprised to see that turned entirely on its head, with Model S 85 being the most popular variant, and a statistically insignificant portion of the Customer base choosing the Model S 40.

    It would be unwise to make a similar error with Model ≡. Today, those issues are largely mitigated by the placement of Model S 70D as the entry level car in the Tesla Motors lineup. If it weren't for the fact that in the past five years BMW has made an effort to get their non-diesel 3-Series cars appreciably above an EPA rated 350 mile range (in order to get closer to CAFE standards), a 60 kWh or 70 kWh battery pack would be absolutely perfect for Model ≡.

    No matter what they do, Tesla Motors will sell every Model ≡ they can manage to build for years after its release. But which ones? For my money, if Tesla can manage a 100 kWh version for a dime under $40,000 that should be the sole initial offering. Then, once the initial fervor has died, offer a 60 kWh version for $25,000 to silence the Naysayers once and for all.

    Why? So that they can avoid the supply/demand issue caused by Model S 85 sales in 2013. Since Tesla Motors originally expected to build perhaps 15,000 vehicles that year, including the first Model X shipments, they were found unprepared when instead 22,000 of Model S alone were built because of its popularity. And since the grand majority of those, perhaps 75-80%, were for the 85 kWh version, they were running out of their allotment of battery cells from Panasonic sooner than expected.

    No matter how many orders are taken, Tesla is bound to be production constrained with Model ≡ for at least 18-24 months after its launch. So those might as well all be the biggest battery pack that can be shoved under the floor to streamline the process as best as possible. Once capacity outstrips production by a comfortable margin, being able to offer a lower cost variant that still wows the senses and achieves a superior range will allow that many more people to enjoy the experience in an affordable fashion.
     
  19. Stoneymonster

    Stoneymonster Active Member

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    That's what the gigafactory is for. I expect new pack advancements.
     
  20. ggies07

    ggies07 Active Member

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    IF the energy density improvements work out, this would be flipping fantastic! One of my day dreams is that Tesla will surprise the public, once the production lines are in a groove for the Model 3, and say they don't need to wait for a Gen 4 product, here's your even cheaper mass market car. I really want the naysayers to be caught off guard and to see their faces.
     

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