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Model 3 Battery size

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Like a few people already pointed out here, I totally agree that Tesla will go with 60 kwh battery as the absolute bare minimum. There is no way Tesla is going to use 55 kwh battery while knowing GM's Bolt is going to use 60 kwh. Vast majority of the general public would do a straight comparison of battery size "headline" number between the Bolt and Model 3, without knowing or digging into better efficiency in Model 3 etc. Also, lower battery size means slower supercharging speed, so I seriously doubt Tesla will chose anything lower than 60 kwh.
 
Battery health is accomplished by not range charging on a daily basis. I would prefer if the 215 mile range in the $35,000 Model 3 would be at 90% SOC.

By the time manufacturing is underway, maybe improved battery density can provide a higher range for battery longevity.
 
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Seems like the consensus is 60 kwh size. The battery modules and size will be different for the m3 according to Musk. Another thing I would add is GM tends to exaggerate where Tesla likes to under promise and over deliver. So I would subtract a little from the bolt and add a little to the Tesla 3.
 
Where did you get the 3,6 miles per kWh figure for the Model S?
EPA rates the Model S at 380 Wh/mile, but this includes expected charging losses. If we presume 15% loss to charging, the per mile energy from the battery is 380*0.85 = 323 Wh/mile, thus 3.1 miles per kWh

OTOH, the MPGe is ~ 90 which works out to 2.7 miles/kWh. I don't know how to resolve the discrepancy unless the charging losses are presumed to be much less.
 
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I can imagine getting 4 miles/kWh on the EPA cycle, but I'm unsure what the battery reserve will be.
If 10 -15%, then the nominal capacity is 55 - 60 kWh to go 215 miles

A lot of unknowns remain to make a better guess, not the least are the new tyres Tesla is hoping to get from Michelin and the car weight. My guess (hope) is that the Model ☰ will get much improved fuel economy compared to the Model S.

I raise a toast to 25% !
Currently we know that the Model ☰ is hoped to reach a Cd of 0.21, while the 'S' is 0.24
Since the car volume is 20% less volume reportedly, it seems fair to think that the weight will also be 20% less.
I'm hoping for a 15% reduction in tyre rolling resistance

All together then, according to the drag equation [mass*RR + CdA] at a speed where aero is half of the total, this works out to (0.85*0.8 + 21/24)/2 = 77% of the drag of a Model S, thus 30% greater range per kWh. Note that I have not reduced the frontal area at all, but it does not seem far fetched to think another ~ 5% improvement in range will accrue from a 10% smaller frontal area.
 
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capacity ~ range ~ charging mph ~ performance ~ 1/C rate

Minimum 60kWh.

The improved aerodynamics won't have _that_ much impact on the EPA rating, because it's relative low speed, so biased to weight. But they _will_ affect real-world highway driving range.

Tesla cares _a lot_ about _real-world_ range and charging speed, because they are building long-distance electric cars, and have the Supercharger capability as the key focus. There is a good reason why they dropped the S60 in favor of the S70.

And Tesla doesn't want to go backwards.

So, thinking of the S70 as defining the base, I think that the lower weight and improved aerodynamic will allow the 3 to be comparable with a battery around 60kWh. Meanwhile, the S's battery size will be increased as the density increases, and cost reduces, and the S will end up with some pretty impressive range.
 
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Seems like the consensus is 60 kwh size. The battery modules and size will be different for the m3 according to Musk. Another thing I would add is GM tends to exaggerate where Tesla likes to under promise and over deliver. So I would subtract a little from the bolt and add a little to the Tesla 3.

Hum… I don't know about GM in general, but when speaking about the Volt they have been quite honest. (Regarding the usable capacity of the battery and the range at least, for what I've seen on the gm-volt forums people often get more all-electric range than EPA and the usable capacity of the battery is what is promised.)

Whereas Tesla has done both (under-promise -> over-deliver AND over-promise -> under-deliver.) Examples of over-promise and under-deliver : 691-hp megathread, the higher-spec (85 and 90) batteries have less kWh than advertised, 2.6s (0-60mph) and 10.9s (1/4 mile) that nobody except MotorTrend seem to be able to replicate, the delivery date of the TMX, and some other I'm probably forgetting…
Since we're on TMC, you surely all know where Tesla has under-promised and over-delivered, so I won't cover that. :)
 
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Tesla confirmed it will be under 60 kwh battery. So 50? 55?

My bet is 56kwh base and 75kwh for $10k more with 8 modules or 9.375 kwh per battery module. I don't think they will try and stack batteries below seats or in the trunk as some have suggested. It's going to be one level skateboard for both base and big battery options. I believe the mechanical drawing shown at the reveal was the AWD obviously and the big battery unit with 8 modules. Thus 6 battery modules base and 8 modules for the full build out.

Panasonic NCR18650B in use today has energy density of 265 Wh/kg on the Model X/S. Hoping for 280-290Wh/kg to bring the battery weight down. The lighter the better when it comes to sports sedans even with those with a low center of gravity. Today my BMW 335i xDrive is 3710 lbs. I would be happy with <3900 lbs in this generation of the Model 3 for the AWD, upgraded battery version of the car.
 
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I have guessed at 55kWh for a long time, and saw the 215 EPA miles range as a conformation that this is the size. And by the way - "55" is the rounding to closest 5kWh, not "exactly 55kWh and not one kWh up or down!".
Tesla is going to have to approach 4 miles range per kWh battery on the combined test.

I think they will do it, but it will be quite the feat.
 
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