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Model 3 Battery size

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I think the mistake you are making is looking at sales numbers of single cars. What are the TOTAL number of econobox car sales across all makes and models? The total of all of them together represents the number of potential Tesla econobox sales.
I say leave econoboxes to other manufacturers who can afford slimmer margins. If Tesla were to make a lower priced car it'd probably be 2025 at the earliest. In the meantime we'll see the Model Y, Tesla Truck, Tesla Minibus, Tesla Semi Truck, and the Tesla Roadster II. That's a lot to do.
 
I say leave econoboxes to other manufacturers who can afford slimmer margins. If Tesla were to make a lower priced car it'd probably be 2025 at the earliest. In the meantime we'll see the Model Y, Tesla Truck, Tesla Minibus, Tesla Semi Truck, and the Tesla Roadster II. That's a lot to do.

I think the truck, mini bus, and semi can wait. Tesla "civic" first IMO. Although truck sales are huge. Maybe bump that schedule up a bit.
 
I think the truck, mini bus, and semi can wait.
Not only are truck sales huge but those three make up the biggest contributors to pollution in addition to having larger gross margins. Tesla can make the biggest impact and still make enough money to grow by targeting those markets. By this time too, the first Model 3s will be hitting the used market and therefore will be more affordable to others.
 
I've been tracking Tesla and it's analysts a long time. There is always a percentage of people who are absolutely certain that Tesla will never really succeed in making [blank] model, [blank] number of cars, etc. Musk continues to do "impossible' things. I doubt Tesla will ever put out an econobox, any more than Mercedes has. More likely, we will see additional vehicles types built on the three sleds. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the new Roadster was on a totally tricked out Model 3 sled, the pickup on the Model X and *gasp* a station wagon based on the Model S.

So, when do I get my Model 3 hatchback? Do I have to wait until the European factory is built? Europeans love compact hatchbacks.
That would be the Model Y. We'll probably see it in the US in 2019 and Europe in 2020.
 
I've been tracking Tesla and it's analysts a long time. There is always a percentage of people who are absolutely certain that Tesla will never really succeed in making [blank] model, [blank] number of cars, etc. Musk continues to do "impossible' things.
Exactly. I just came across an article from a year ago that is complete [BOLSHEVIK]. Click at your own risk:
Tesla Will Get Trampled by the Mass Market

I doubt Tesla will ever put out an econobox, any more than Mercedes has.
Yeah. The B-Class was apparently available in Canada as an ICE version. The A-Class has never seen the light of day on these shores. But then, Mercedes-Benz may be afraid that NHTSA or IIHS will introduce the Moose Test:

There used to be another version that was more complete on YouTube, but it seems to have been hunted down and expunged by Mercedes-Benz. I think it was the guys at Teknikens Värld, where the car rolled over with four actual passengers inside. Good thing they all wore helmets.

This is the FiXED version, which uses a technology Daimler-Benz calls 'ESP' for stabilization:

More likely, we will see additional vehicles types built on the three sleds.
I have presumed this for quite some time. Effectively, that the 3-Series lineup would be replicated:
Model ☰ Sedan
Model ☰ Crossover/Wagon
Model ☰ Coupe
Model ☰ Convertible​

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the new Roadster was on a totally tricked out Model 3 sled, the pickup on the Model X and *gasp* a station wagon based on the Model S.
The Roadster may well be part of Generation III, sharing components and platform, but not necessarily on the same frame.

I know there is supposedly to be some sort of 'people mover' using the Model X platform, but I do not believe it would be appropriate for a pickup truck.

Yes, a Model S station wagon would be pretty cool. But a Model S Coupe would be a whole lot better. :D

So, when do I get my Model 3 hatchback? Do I have to wait until the European factory is built? Europeans love compact hatchbacks.
Enjoy Europe! Here's a preview, en Español:

It has been a long, long time since hot hatchbacks were at all popular in the U.S. There have been some pretty neat ones in the past 25 years that were all but entirely ignored. I personally don't find any small, five-door hatchback to be 'hot' in styling. Europe is different, and it seems to be all about 'Teh H0+n3$s!' of the engine used. I guess having utility and comfort for four or five is considered a good thing...? Sort of like having a 'Sleeper' or 'Q Car', only with the volume turned up WAY HIGH. Ford can't possibly expect that the Focus RS will be a big seller at the price point they are asking... But it is a pretty nice car all the same. I do not look forward to seeing a Tesla product in that configuration, ever.
 
I think the mistake you are making is looking at sales numbers of single cars. What are the TOTAL number of econobox (and civic/Corolla) car sales across all makes and models? The total of all of them together represents the number of potential Tesla "econobox" sales.
Tesla likely does not care about either. I don't consider the Civic, Corolla, Sentra, Elantra, Cruze, or Focus to be in the 'econobox' category. Most of those are categorized by the EPA as Midsize cars, just as are their stablemates, Accord, Camry, Altima, Sonata, Malibu, and Fusion. I expect the Model ☰ will also receive a Midsize classification, though most of its direct competitors are listed as Compact instead.

As the Midsize offerings of 'regular' cars gradually go up in price, they will have to compete with the Model ☰, and they'll see their sales eroding as more and more potential Customers switch to electric. Because as the costs to traditional automobile manufacturers continue to go up (due to attempting to adapt new technologies to improve fuel efficiency), while Tesla's own costs go down, there will be an overlap and crossover as the lower lines for Honda, Toyota, Nissan, Hyundai, Chevrolet, Ford, and others move upmarket.
upload_2017-2-14_20-42-15.png

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No. The econoboxes tend to be a bit smaller, have a different configuration, and are often not very attractive at all. And often they are very, very... CHEAP. Perhaps more like the Yaris, Versa, Accent, and Sonic. Those are listed as Compact cars, 100-to-109 cubic feet of interior passenger/luggage volume.
upload_2017-2-14_20-57-1.png

But why wouldn't Tesla care? Simple. These are typically among the most fuel efficient vehicles that traditional automobile manufacturers offer. They are also, as I noted before, usually rather poor sellers, especially when compared to their real moneymakers: SUVs and Pickup Trucks. So, small, cheap cars that are ugly and no one buys them, but at least they don't waste energy or pollute as much as other ICE vehicles. That makes this market segment a very low priority.

This is the part where some will protest, "In the U.S.!" Yeah, sure. They are not popular here. That's the point. Tesla is an American company. They must succeed here. What would it look like if the Volkswagen Golf sold as poorly or worse in Germany as it currently does in the U.S.? Exactly. I believe that Tesla is capable of designing vehicles with worldwide appeal -- without falling into the econobox paradigm of uglified penalty box deathmobile commuter contraptions that the traditional automobile manufacturers force upon their customers.

Another point? Those types of cars should not be popular ANYWHERE. When people buy cheap cars, they deserve to not have to get ugly ones. That's why the majority of car buyers in the U.S. get used vehicles each and every year ($38,000,000 in 2015, compared to $17,000,000 new car buyers). So they can get something that is 'NEW' to them, a nice looking vehicle, a better vehicle than they perceive they could otherwise afford.

But you have to sell new cars before you can offer used ones. And attempting to sell econoboxes to start can put a stigma on a company that takes a long, long time to grow out of. The Hyundai Excel taught that lesson to the entire automotive industry. It took practically forever before the Hyundai Sonata and Elantra were both able to get within striking distance of the top ten passenger vehicles sold in the U.S. Tesla does not have 20-to-25 years and firm government backing or the deep pockets of an industrial giant to support them while they grow. So they must win over the populace with desirable cars from the outset. And econoboxes do not fit that bill at all.
 

Let me quote a simple reply to that

Tesla’s market cap reaches last milestone of Elon Musk’s $1 billion CEO stock option plan – will he stay CEO for long? • /r/teslamotors
Tesla is structured such that you need a 2/3 agreement in order to actually do anything important like add or remove board members, new C-suite hires, big investments. Elon owns something like 22% of the company outright and between JB, Kimbal Musk, Steve Jurvetson, and Deepak Ahujia thats like another 9% that are pretty darn loyal to Elon. Kimbal Musk and Jurvetson are also board members. So there would really have to be a big internal disagreement for Elon and his friends to be overridden because you would need to get almost 100% of the outstanding shares to get onboard.

Elon plans to maintain 2/3 of his current titles; chairmen of the board and chief product architect. Meaning Elon wants to only be involved in the really big strategy level decisions and the engineering of new products (this is what he really likes doing at both SpaceX and Tesla) while leaving the day to day operation of the company to someone else. Keep in mind Tesla's design studio is next door to SpaceX as well.

So essentially that article is just clickbait, Elon isn't going anywhere.
 
No, that was pack weight not cell weight. Where would "some more" weight come from? Cell energy density levels are estimated to be 250+ Wh/Kg. (possibly around 280)

The vehicle will be designed for the heaviest pack size. Keep in mind with the model S was first designed there was no 100 kWh pack.

Keep in mind this was IIHS and not NHTSA. NHTSA uses a 3x the vehicle weight while IIHS uses 4x. The P100D roof strength is 19,271 lbs, curb weight is about 4941 lbs. Therefore if NHTSA obtained the same measurement for a strength to weight ratio of 3.9 it'd be five stars whereas IIHS it only gets acceptable.

The reinforcement was to allow the crossbar to be removed for the glass roof.

Not according to Elon in the 2015 Q4 earnings call:

200 * 1.2 = 240 miles ... just saying.

"some more" weight comes due to different body design (this includes overall rigidity and addition "padding" for frontal collision energy absorption and addition strengthening of front roof pillars due to small overlap crash test, heavier suspension parts (including springs, wishbones, stabilizers), bigger brake discs and very likely rim dimensions that are suitable for heavier vehicle (that also includes heavier tires). Yes I know that 55kWh version "can choose smaller diameter rim" - this is correct. But not smaller diameter wheel arch nor smaller diameter tire circumference. Aka 55kWh models will be stuck with whatever the largest gross vehicle weight number says (excluding battery). I should note that Model 3 will not have aluminum body (maybe doors/hatches) and will have more glass (heavier than sheet of steel on the roof).
Any extra kilogram will have a negative effect on the most valuable variation of Model 3 - the base model.
This means less EPA range, worse acceleration and less profits (higher production costs, all variations).

And additional negative side effects that will push away a decent amount of customers: higher running costs.
We all know the costs for operating EV-s are: windshield washer fluid, electricity bill and tires.
There is a reason, why BMW 3-series (which is not some cheap vehicle, even the base models) comes with 16" rims.
16" is not supported with 6-cylinder engines. And 17" is not supported on M3 (due to power). Car manufacturers are not
allowed to take into account regen while calculating brake disc diameter but must take into account vehicle power.
Model 3 will NOT be offered with 16" rims. I will live with that. But if 55kWh AWD model will not be able to fit 17",
this will seriously impact my decision to buy out Model 3. (keep in mind front motor adds at least 60kg in total).
18" rims are expensive (base price penalty), tires are at least 40% more expensive than 17" (running costs and base price),
ride comfort will suffer due to more unsprung weight (heavier rims, much heavier tires, heavier brake discs/pads/rotors).
And, of course, wider tires means more air drag and more drag area. Penalizing range (that includes electricity bill too).

Engineering a vehicle is very complex. Can not be taught/learned with few forum posts. I have a hard time to bring examples for a single "wish" people have (heavy battery).



BTW, I just came up to another thing. If Model 3 will be a smaller Model S, it will most likely need 60kWh pack to get the range promised (for the base model). Let's face it. Model 3 with 60 and 90 kWh battery packs is not really different compared to Model S with 60- 90kWh options. Except it would be faster and carry less luggage while being "half the price".
From the deepest corner of my heart, this is not going to happen. Tesla makes a vehicle platform, not a vehicle. They will have an extremely bad choice of vehicle platforms few years later when they want to make something else.

And ONE MORE THING.
Gigafactory1 was planned to produce 50GWh annually, out of which 35GWh for vehicles. While also promising at least half a million vehicles. If my previous estimations (55 and 70kWh and near 50:50 distribution) would be true, that would consume more than 30GWh just on Model 3 alone and absolutely nothing else. No 2170 for Model S, No 2170 for Model X, no pickup truck, and nothing sold to others.
This is already pushing (yes yes, Gigafactory now plans to produce more, but this is due to much higher demand on storage side).


I hope, that Elon doesn't waste capacity so owners can enjoy comfort of having much more than enough on a MASS MARKET VEHICLE. Rather expand SuperChargers.

I hope I made it more clear, why Model 3 will not offer gigantic battery pack (comparable to Model S).
 
No 2170 for Model S, No 2170 for Model X, no pickup truck, and nothing sold to others.
It is reasonable to think that part of the deal with Panasonic (you know, the firm that will actually be producing the cells at the GF-I) is that they continue to buy cells from their existing factories in Asia that is currently delivering all the cells to the production of Model S and X, and in the last year also to any storage product by Tesla Energy.

I assume that this factories also will be upgraded to 2170 cell production relatively soon. *)

For pickup trucks and other future automobile products (except Model Y and probably RoadsterNG) it is assumed that they will build new factories, and there build a combined "gigafactory" and car factory in one building/complex.

Edit:
*) Someone mentioned that there should already be some 2170 production in one of this Asian factories?
 
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weight comes due to different body design (this includes overall rigidity and addition "padding" for frontal collision energy absorption and addition strengthening of front roof pillars due to small overlap crash test, heavier suspension parts (including springs, wishbones, stabilizers), bigger brake discs and very likely rim dimensions that are suitable for heavier vehicle (that also includes heavier tires).
Yes, I want to be in a safe car. Add all of it up and if Elon was correct then you still get 20% lighter than the base Model S.

I should note that Model 3 will not have aluminum body (maybe doors/hatches) and will have more glass (heavier than sheet of steel on the roof).
Any extra kilogram will have a negative effect on the most valuable variation of Model 3 - the base model.
The Model 3 will be a mix of aluminum and steel as mentioned by the engineers at launch. We know the base model was targeted to be 20% lighter than Model S. The base model will also likely have a metal roof, not glass, because we were told the metal roof would be offered. Your fears of a super heavy base model are unfounded. You're forgetting the entire dash is ripped out. The AC will be smaller and more efficient. The Model 3 inverters will be based on more modern technology. Etc.

If Model 3 will be a smaller Model S, it will most likely need 60kWh pack to get the range promised (for the base model)
No, due to less drag and it being lighter weight than the Model S for any given capacity. Model S60 RWD has a range of 218 mi... therefore it stands to reason that in a more efficient, lighter weight, vehicle it would need less than 60 kWh for the same range in the base model. Note that 218 is greater than 215. If they used an entire 60 kWh pack then the range would be even greater.

I hope, that Elon doesn't waste capacity so owners can enjoy comfort of having much more than enough on a MASS MARKET VEHICLE. Rather expand SuperChargers.

Owners are encouraged to charge at home rather than at superchargers when possible. Larger battery packs mean less supercharger use. Even for people who can only use superchargers, they'd have to charge less frequently. This means less congestion for everyone.

Gigafactory1 was planned to produce 50GWh annually, out of which 35GWh for vehicles. While also promising at least half a million vehicles. If my previous estimations (55 and 70kWh and near 50:50 distribution) would be true, that would consume more than 30GWh just on Model 3 alone and absolutely nothing else. No 2170 for Model S, No 2170 for Model X, no pickup truck, and nothing sold to others.
This is already pushing (yes yes, Gigafactory now plans to produce more, but this is due to much higher demand on storage side).

There's no Gigafactory for Model S, remember, and cells are imported from Asia. If every single Model S/X made in a year was 100 kWh then that's only 8-10 gWh/year of production. Tesla does have contractual obligations for a certain number of 18650s anyway so it might still be some time before there's overlap.

Secondly, the Gigafactory initial output is planned to be 50 GWh/year pack output in 2018. We have no idea about 2019. When the Gigafactory is complete this will be 150 GWh/year. Elon has already mentioned potential future Gigafactories on each continent.

Let's do some simple math. if we take the 35 GWh pack production planned for cars and divide by 500,000 cars we get 70 kWh average. If the majority of people go for the base model around 60 kWh then to get an average of 70 kWh the other battery option(s) will be large capacity. Your 50:50 distribution wouldn't average 70 kWh.

A pickup truck and/or many other future Tesla vehicles are not even going to be produced in 2018. Maybe unveiled.

This is not to mention that Panasonic can always manufacture cells in parallel with the gigafactory and ship them for Model S/X. The transportation costs for those cells are already in the price of Model S/X. Panasonic doesn't seem to currently have a capacity issue for supplying Model S/X.

I hope I made it more clear, why Model 3 will not offer gigantic battery pack (comparable to Model S).

I've just proved it's entirely possible they will offer whatever fits physically. People will want it.
 
I don't see any reason why Tesla will not evolve to be similar to any other major auto manufacturer with many different models. That is a natural progression and is necessary to stay in business.
It is absolutely not necessary to stay in business. Where is the economy Bentley, or the Lamborghini for the masses, why isn't there a Bugatti that everyone can afford? None of those businesses are gone?

Tesla is trying to get people to convert their next targets, as has been mentioned, will be pickups and SUVs. There is simply no need for them to produce a lower priced car. Yes, there will be demand but they don't have to be the ones to fill it. As long as someone is Tesla is more than happy to continue to lead the way and let others grab the low hanging fruit.
 
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Tesla likely does not care about either. I don't consider the Civic, Corolla, Sentra, Elantra, Cruze, or Focus to be in the 'econobox' category. Most of those are categorized by the EPA as Midsize cars, just as are their stablemates, Accord, Camry, Altima, Sonata, Malibu, and Fusion. I expect the Model ☰ will also receive a Midsize classification, though most of its direct competitors are listed as Compact instead.

As the Midsize offerings of 'regular' cars gradually go up in price, they will have to compete with the Model ☰, and they'll see their sales eroding as more and more potential Customers switch to electric. Because as the costs to traditional automobile manufacturers continue to go up (due to attempting to adapt new technologies to improve fuel efficiency), while Tesla's own costs go down, there will be an overlap and crossover as the lower lines for Honda, Toyota, Nissan, Hyundai, Chevrolet, Ford, and others move upmarket.
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View attachment 214825
No. The econoboxes tend to be a bit smaller, have a different configuration, and are often not very attractive at all. And often they are very, very... CHEAP. Perhaps more like the Yaris, Versa, Accent, and Sonic. Those are listed as Compact cars, 100-to-109 cubic feet of interior passenger/luggage volume.
View attachment 214826
But why wouldn't Tesla care? Simple. These are typically among the most fuel efficient vehicles that traditional automobile manufacturers offer. They are also, as I noted before, usually rather poor sellers, especially when compared to their real moneymakers: SUVs and Pickup Trucks. So, small, cheap cars that are ugly and no one buys them, but at least they don't waste energy or pollute as much as other ICE vehicles. That makes this market segment a very low priority.

This is the part where some will protest, "In the U.S.!" Yeah, sure. They are not popular here. That's the point. Tesla is an American company. They must succeed here. What would it look like if the Volkswagen Golf sold as poorly or worse in Germany as it currently does in the U.S.? Exactly. I believe that Tesla is capable of designing vehicles with worldwide appeal -- without falling into the econobox paradigm of uglified penalty box deathmobile commuter contraptions that the traditional automobile manufacturers force upon their customers.

Another point? Those types of cars should not be popular ANYWHERE. When people buy cheap cars, they deserve to not have to get ugly ones. That's why the majority of car buyers in the U.S. get used vehicles each and every year ($38,000,000 in 2015, compared to $17,000,000 new car buyers). So they can get something that is 'NEW' to them, a nice looking vehicle, a better vehicle than they perceive they could otherwise afford.

But you have to sell new cars before you can offer used ones. And attempting to sell econoboxes to start can put a stigma on a company that takes a long, long time to grow out of. The Hyundai Excel taught that lesson to the entire automotive industry. It took practically forever before the Hyundai Sonata and Elantra were both able to get within striking distance of the top ten passenger vehicles sold in the U.S. Tesla does not have 20-to-25 years and firm government backing or the deep pockets of an industrial giant to support them while they grow. So they must win over the populace with desirable cars from the outset. And econoboxes do not fit that bill at all.
While I agree with the above and it is certainly plausable I think the everything under 35k market is too big to ignore. Time will tell:)
 
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It is absolutely not necessary to stay in business. Where is the economy Bentley, or the Lamborghini for the masses, why isn't there a Bugatti that everyone can afford? None of those businesses are gone?

Tesla is trying to get people to convert their next targets, as has been mentioned, will be pickups and SUVs. There is simply no need for them to produce a lower priced car. Yes, there will be demand but they don't have to be the ones to fill it. As long as someone is Tesla is more than happy to continue to lead the way and let others grab the low hanging fruit.
Lamborghini/Bentley /= Tesla. I think they will go below 35k, Civic/Corolla type cars, probably not econoboxes.
 
While I agree with the above and it is certainly plausable I think the everything under 35k market is too big to ignore. Time will tell:)

Usually you find small compact cars in this category this makes up 16% of the market. when you add both midsize and compact cars it's only 32% of the market (more if you include luxury cars but those are beyond the price point).

The vast majority (62.6%) of the market is light trucks (pickups, SUVs, crossovers, vans, etc)

(Stats are from Jan 2017 sales)
 
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Yes, I want to be in a safe car. Add all of it up and if Elon was correct then you still get 20% lighter than the base Model S.

The Model 3 will be a mix of aluminum and steel as mentioned by the engineers at launch. We know the base model was targeted to be 20% lighter than Model S. The base model will also likely have a metal roof, not glass, because we were told the metal roof would be offered. Your fears of a super heavy base model are unfounded. You're forgetting the entire dash is ripped out. The AC will be smaller and more efficient.

No, due to less drag and it being lighter weight than the Model S for any given capacity. Model S60 RWD has a range of 218 mi... therefore it stands to reason that in a more efficient, lighter weight, vehicle it would need less than 60 kWh for the same range in the base model. Note that 218 is greater than 215. If they used an entire 60 kWh pack then the range would be even greater.

I've just proved it's entirely possible they will offer whatever fits physically. People will want it.
What is base Model S? There are multiple base models.
Door made out of aluminum is already a mix. It is too complicated to do a lot of steel-aluminum joints (not possible to weld)

I don't expect AC compressor itself being much weaker. Like I said earlier, AC capacity is determined by Supercharging speed. Not cabin dimensions.

Possible is not the same as reasonable.
I didn't say what is and what is not theoretically possible.
The fact that many people want doesn't mean a lot for manufacturer.
Some kids want a Tesla now. That is not the same as to buy it.

Like I said, base Model 3 will have the same structure as the top model with 2 motors, moonroof, biggest wheels and battery.
How many thousands of dollars it is reasonable to push into every base model just because of top version some ver few will get? The more Model 3 variation costs - the more it will be wanted and the less it will be bought.

You want a car, that has as much battery capacity and range as Model S 75kWh, has as much safety as Model S , weights 20% less (while having battery that weights 5% less)? Has 20% less drag while fitting 3 people in the back seat. Is 20% more efficient. Costs 50% less. And it is the top of the line Model 3 with more than 75kWh pack?
Awesome. Now we know your preferences. Let's talk about what can actually be sold in hundreds of thousands.
Would I buy/reserve it? Would my neighbor buy/reserve it? Would hundreds of thousands pre-orders be made with price sticker starting from 45 thousands? How about 55 thousand for ludicrous Model 3?
 
Model S60 RWD has a range of 218 mi...
Please remember that the original S60 RWD had only 208 miles EPA range. The new S60 with a SW limited battery has about 60kWh usable energy if I remember correct, and get more range. While I do agree on your conclusion in this paragraph, you can't use the current EPA range of the SW limited S60 as an argument. But yes, I have no doubt that a ~55kWh battery will have an EPA range of at least 215 miles, probably a bit more then that.

Let's do some simple math. if we take the 35 GWh pack production planned for cars and divide by 500,000 cars we get 70 kWh average.
Remember that you just argumented that this 35 GWh does not include Model S and X. The 500k cars is a total for S+3+X, so you have to subtract the number of Model S+X that would be produced. A sober estimate is at least 100k S+X, so you can't really divide by more then 400k, probably closer to 350k.