TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker and becoming a Supporting Member. For more info: Support TMC

Model 3 Battery size

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Krohleder, Apr 5, 2016.

  1. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2014
    Messages:
    2,739
    Location:
    Los Angeles CA
    As I have noted in other posts, the Model ≡ already occupies the equivalent of a Civic/Corolla/Sentra/Elantra/Focus type vehicle within the Tesla product line. Please note that in worldwide passenger car sales the Corolla, Focus, and Golf are typically the top three annually. They sell on the order 900,000 to 1,300,000 units of those every year, with the Corolla coming out on top. By the time Tesla is able to manage that sort of worldwide distribution for a singular vehicle, their base prices will have climbed to perhaps $27,500 or so. Rather than release a lower level vehicle, it would make more sense to offer a 60 kWh Model ≡ for a competitive price to them while making a 90 kWh version available at the $35,000 price point. Because the majority of these vehicles are all MIDSIZE, not COMPACT.
     
  2. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2014
    Messages:
    2,739
    Location:
    Los Angeles CA
    Once again, with the bottom rising, and used car sales chasing 'cheap' new cars into oblivion, there is no need to build a less expensive car for new sales at all. Nothing, that is, beyond marketing anyway. And even that is suspect. Can anyone tell why the Mercedes-Benz CLA-Class exists? To lure away Accord and Camry buyers? It doesn't seem to be working. Not everyone at price points around or less than $25,000 is looking for a NEW car. Most are buying used instead.
     
    • Like x 1
  3. LectrikPower

    LectrikPower Member

    Joined:
    May 4, 2016
    Messages:
    187
    Location:
    Milwaukee, WI
    #543 LectrikPower, Feb 16, 2017 at 3:24 PM
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2017 at 3:31 PM
    I agree. I think it is possible for battery costs to plumit and possibly reduce the cost of the three as well as the average cost of new cars rising to three levels. I'm not ready to fully give up on an even cheaper Tesla in the future.

    Who knows where we'll be in 10 years? Electric is ready to blow up! It could go many ways, I am excited.
     
    • Like x 1
  4. LectrikPower

    LectrikPower Member

    Joined:
    May 4, 2016
    Messages:
    187
    Location:
    Milwaukee, WI
    As long as someone is buildings cheap electric cars I will be happy. I would like it to be Tesla but I guess I will survive if not:)

    If it is Tesla I will dig through the archives and enjoy many I told you so's!!!:):)
     
    • Like x 1
  5. Blissedout

    Blissedout Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2016
    Messages:
    45
    Location:
    Weston CT
    The first Master Plan did not pan out exactly as planned. We can anticipate that the second one will change also.

    I think Tesla, being a small company needs to find its niche and distinguish itself from all the others. Right now it has:
    Big battery,
    Superchargers
    Autonomous driving
    All electric

    I think batteries that serve the 215 to 300 mile market is still their sweet spot. They will want more and faster Superchargers, which means batteries that can charge faster. And they want to stay ahead of everyone else in autonomous driving.

    I do not see the Model 3 moving to a battery much larger than 300 miles, unless it is the only way to accommodate faster charging.
     
  6. JeffK

    JeffK Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2016
    Messages:
    2,808
    Location:
    Indianapolis
    Besides estimated the price of the Model S can you mention which part of the Master Plan didn't pan out as planned?
    1. Build sports car (check)
    2. Use that money to build an affordable car (check)
    3. Use that money to build an even more affordable car (check)
    4. While doing above, also provide zero emission electric power generation options (check)
     
    • Like x 1
  7. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2014
    Messages:
    2,739
    Location:
    Los Angeles CA
    I sort of mostly kinda agree with this, but... I do not believe Tesla needs to fit into each of those market segment designators with individual vehicles. The Model ≡ is both their 'Small' and 'Midsize' car. The Model S takes care of 'Fullsize' and 'Luxury' at once. Add a Crossover Model Y to the stable to join the Model X SUV and they have an appropriate 'full lineup'.

    The only other advisable addition would be a Fullsize Pickup Truck -- I'm thinking a Dual Motor AWD Heavy Duty Crew Cab Dually with Class III, Class IV, & Class V towing -- paired with 140 kWh, 170 kWh, and 220 kWh battery pack capacities.

    A Wagon, Coupe, or Convertible would be body types within the Model ≡ lineup.

    No need to introduce a 22' long limousine -- the Model S already outsells every 'extended wheelbase' vehicle out there, and many of them combined.

    Mostly, Tesla doesn't have to chase niches. They can stand firm on configurations that sell well. I mean, really -- why is there both a Honda CR-V and an HR-V...?
     
  8. ModelNforNerd

    ModelNforNerd Active Member

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2015
    Messages:
    1,439
    Location:
    Ayer, MA

    fair enough, but you get the point.....they're trying to slot in by vehicle size and not how far it can go.
     
    • Like x 1
  9. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2014
    Messages:
    2,739
    Location:
    Los Angeles CA
    Just remember that Elon has vowed to always be a part of Tesla. He never really wanted to be CEO. He holds another title there: Chief Product Architect. So whatever they intend to build is always his decision. And he intends to maintain that role even after he steps down as CEO some day.
     
    • Like x 3
  10. daniel

    daniel Active Member

    Joined:
    May 7, 2009
    Messages:
    1,342
    Location:
    Spokane, WA
    The Model 3 costs twice as much as those cars. When their base prices rise to $27,500, it will be because of inflation which will push a car like the Model 3 to $65,000. You cannot say that when a Civic costs $27,500 a Model 3 will still cost $35,000. Tesla may well decide not to compete in the cheap-car market, but a Civic-class stinker will always cost half as much as a Model-3-class EV until there's a carbon tax that makes a stinker uneconomical to operate.

    And while the used-car market will eventually enable people who cannot afford $35,000 to get an electric car, there are still people who want a new car at half that price, and used-car buyers who want a car significantly less expensive than that. There will continue to be a significant market for a $15,000 or $20,000 electric car. Tesla can certainly afford to leave that market to other makers. But I've met plenty of people who would love to have an electric car, for whom a Model 3 is still way outside their price range.

    Batteries are not like integrated circuits. Batteries are improving slowly. The price per kWh will continue to decline, but it is not going to plummet.

    They may be able to make superchargers a little bit faster, but the conductors needed for fast charging are humongous, and the cooling power is enormous. Superchargers are not going to get very much faster, and there is no need for them to do so. A bigger need is for superchargers on secondary roads. My one long road trip per year does not follow major highways. For me to ditch the stinker for that one trip, there would need to be superchargers in small cities off the major highways. I think that time will come, but it may be a decade or more away, and I'm old enough that I may not see it.
     
  11. Topher

    Topher Energy Curmudgeon

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2016
    Messages:
    917
    Location:
    Maine
    I didn't mean Tesla's survival. I meant OUR survival.

    Thank you kindly.
     
    • Funny x 1
  12. LectrikPower

    LectrikPower Member

    Joined:
    May 4, 2016
    Messages:
    187
    Location:
    Milwaukee, WI
    Compact discs are not integrated circuits either but they were very expensive at first. It doesn't have anything to do with IC's. With batteries it's about volume. How do you think the Giggafactory is lowering the cost?
     
    • Like x 1
  13. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2014
    Messages:
    2,739
    Location:
    Los Angeles CA
    Just as the sub-$10,000 market disappeared, the sub-$15,000 market is likely to be gone very soon. With the sub-$20,000 ones soon to follow.
    I think that if Tesla's internal cost for battery packs goes below $90 per kWh, they will be able to profitably offer a $25,000 Model ≡ 60. But at this point they may not bother.
     
  14. Blissedout

    Blissedout Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2016
    Messages:
    45
    Location:
    Weston CT
    To have the Model S be twice the price planned is a significant departure. It became a luxury model instead of the M3. The original plan became:
    1. Build sports car
    2 Build luxury car
    3. Build an affordable car.
    4. Don't build an even more affordable car, create a car sharing network instead.
    5. Same in both plans.

    I think flexibility with business plans is good thing. Things never turn out exactly as planned.
     
    • Disagree x 2
  15. Blissedout

    Blissedout Member

    Joined:
    Sep 25, 2016
    Messages:
    45
    Location:
    Weston CT
    This article Tesla’s upcoming ‘Supercharger V3’ is the last piece of the EV adoption puzzle – and means more ZEV credits hints that EM plans for a Supercharger larger than 350 kw.
     
  16. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2014
    Messages:
    1,522
    Location:
    Norway
    Actually they did get that estimated price of the Model S - TMS40 was a hair under $50k in base configuration after the $7500 tax rebate. But "no one" wanted to buy it...
     
  17. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2014
    Messages:
    1,522
    Location:
    Norway
    A wise man once said "Everything is relative". So yes, the "luxury car" you mentions here is "an affordable car" in it's base configuration relative to the sports car mentioned in point #1. Not relative to a Corolla - or TM3.

    The fact that the price of the most optioned TMS/X has risen so high, and that they had to drop the lowest cost TMS edition, just reflect what the customers want, and helps even more on the road to point #3.
     
  18. daniel

    daniel Active Member

    Joined:
    May 7, 2009
    Messages:
    1,342
    Location:
    Spokane, WA
    Battery costs are coming down and will continue to decline. They are not going to plummet the way the cost of ICs have plummeted because they are an entirely different sort of thing. ICs are close to zero raw materials, and close to 100% technology. Batteries are mostly raw materials, and the cost of getting those out of the ground is a fundamental part of their cost.

    Inflation, which raises the price of everything.
     
    • Like x 2
  19. dsvick

    dsvick Member

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2016
    Messages:
    724
    Location:
    NE Ohio
    You can do that but we'll all deny it and say that it wasn't in their original plan so we're still right :D

    Ahh, I see, yes, you're correct.
     
  20. LectrikPower

    LectrikPower Member

    Joined:
    May 4, 2016
    Messages:
    187
    Location:
    Milwaukee, WI
    Large scale battery production is just getting started. As per your original claim of batteries "slowly improving" the main issue is cost. Volume and competition will drive the cost down rapidly when compared to its cost decrease of recent history.

    I will concede the term "plumit" though:)
     

Share This Page