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Model 3 Battery size

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Krohleder, Apr 5, 2016.

  1. scaesare

    scaesare Active Member

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    Battery energy density is doubling once every 10 years or so. Indeed not on the level of semiconductors & Moore's law, but nothing else really is.

    JB's Battery Romance

    The real question is: how does the battery/EV improvement curve compare with historic and future gasoline/ICE trending?

    The Roadster was designed 10+ years ago (went on sale in '08). So the Model 3 batteries are already ~2x as good as they were. And significantly cheaper per KWh to boot.

    In another decade (2028), we'll have packs 4x as good as the Roadster was and twice what that Model 3 has. That allows for either more range, less cost, or both. A Model V with a 400 mile pack with a part cost half of what we have today sounds pretty good.

    Here we disagree. As does JB who is targeting 10 minute charge times.

    While I've argued on this forum that we need more range, not just faster superchargers, the reality is we need both if we are to have "no compromises" EV's.
     
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  2. JeffK

    JeffK Active Member

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    Just about yes... the master plan document actually called out half of $89k which is $44.5K but in my opinion $57,400 is a pretty decent decrease. In Elon's defense he did say "roughly half"
    $57k is a far cry from twice the price of the roadster though @Blissedout
     
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  3. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

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    ... and Model 3 will be "roughly half" of the price of Model S today (but not the original base price in 2012).
     
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  4. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    Wow. I disagree with pretty much every thing you wrote here, though I understand why someone might see things your way. Allow me to go through this bit-by-bit...

    As I noted elsewhere, the days of sub-$20,000 new cars is coming to an end... SOON. You don't have to believe it, but it's true. It is far more likely that a version of the Model ≡ will go down to $25,000 than it is the base car will go up to $65,000. In fact, I'd guess the BMW 3-Series will have a base price over $65,000 -- to hide from Civic, Accord, Corolla, Accord, and Model ≡ first. Just as BMW, AUDI, and Mercedes-Benz vehicles initially went further upmarket to escape Lexus and Infiniti 25 years ago. Without ICE issues holding them back, Tesla will not have to follow suit.

    The Civic, Corolla, Accord, and Camry are not much different from each other. And none of them is available as a fully electric vehicle. There is bountiful crossover in the price points of these cars already. Though the average sale price for new cars is over $33,000... The majority of new cars sold are between $22,000 and $25,000.

    The Camry went down in U.S. Sales in 2016 relative to 2015. Many will point to the popularity of SUVs as the culprit. But many times during the year the Corolla threatened to take the lead from its sibling, the Camry. Those product lines will have to be adjusted in the marketplace. So Camry may well supplant Avalon and move upmarket a bit to give Corolla some elbow room.

    Sure I can. Watch me.

    Nope. I say the Model ≡ is already affordable for the majority of those looking to purchase a new car. The total cost of ownership will be better than a Civic or Corolla. And the gap between their initial price points will diminish, not increase.

    25 years ago a Mustang, Camaro, and Corvette all pretty much cost half as much as they do today. So what? People always want to pay less. If the Accord and Camry each started at $11,000 instead of $22,000 they would still be the leaders in their segment, but their Sales would not double.

    No. There won't be. Because no one is stupid enough to 'leave money on the table'. The only 'cheap' cars that outsell the top 15 passenger cars in the U.S. are used cars. Only one 'cheap' car appears among the top thirty sold here. One.

    Sure. Tesla can afford to not do stupid things. Tesla cannot afford to do stupid things.

    And they can either get a nice, used, NISSAN LEAF, or they can lobby Honda, Nissan, Toyota, Chevrolet, or Ford to build a long range 'cheap' electric car... then sit back and watch what happens. HINT: Nothing will happen.

    It's a matter of perspective. There was a guy in 2014 that gave his professional opinion that Tesla was DOOMED because there was no way in [HECK] that batteries would drop below $178 per kWh prior to 2022-2024. When queried about that prediction, Elon Musk noted he would be 'very disappointed' if it took ten years for the cost of batteries to get that low. To those who believe the supposed 'expert', if Tesla's internal cost at the Gigafactory is much lower than GM's admitted $145 per kWh for BOLT, it will indeed constitute a relative plumetting of price point. A Tesla representative admitted their cost was below $190 per kWh already. Elon has consistently stated the Gigafactory would lower their cost by at least 30% from thr outset, and possibly up to 50% before long. That would mean $133 per kWh or less from thr very beginning. When you note that just three years ago most traditional automobile manufacturers were claiming costs upward of $500 per kWh, the costs that will become prevalent within the next two or three years will have fallen off a cliff.

    I hope for your sake you last the next five years or so. That way I can have the pleasure of saying, "I told you so!" But yeah, someone else has already posted a corrective link that proves the opposite of your opinion.

    The Tesla Model S 40 was the 'affordable car'. Nobody wanted it. So it went away. Compared to that, the Model ≡ is indeed the 'even more affordable' car. Tesla does not use the word 'luxury' to describe their products. They may acknowledge that third parties use the word, but they don't use it themselves. Pay attention and stop using revisionist history techniques.
     
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  5. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    ICs drop in price because they can get more performance using the same amount of material. Batteries are improving in price for the same reason. The rate is different, but the fundamentals are the same.
     
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  6. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    Not so much inflation as profit chasing. Some companies raise their prices just to distance themselves from direct competition from products offered by others. Some choose to foster an 'air of exclusivity' by having higher prices.
     
  7. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    Then we agree. Battery costs are coming down and will continue to do so. :)
     
  8. Blissedout

    Blissedout Member

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    I stand corrected.
     
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