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Model 3 Battery size

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Krohleder, Apr 5, 2016.

  1. scaesare

    scaesare Active Member

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    Battery energy density is doubling once every 10 years or so. Indeed not on the level of semiconductors & Moore's law, but nothing else really is.

    JB's Battery Romance

    The real question is: how does the battery/EV improvement curve compare with historic and future gasoline/ICE trending?

    The Roadster was designed 10+ years ago (went on sale in '08). So the Model 3 batteries are already ~2x as good as they were. And significantly cheaper per KWh to boot.

    In another decade (2028), we'll have packs 4x as good as the Roadster was and twice what that Model 3 has. That allows for either more range, less cost, or both. A Model V with a 400 mile pack with a part cost half of what we have today sounds pretty good.

    Here we disagree. As does JB who is targeting 10 minute charge times.

    While I've argued on this forum that we need more range, not just faster superchargers, the reality is we need both if we are to have "no compromises" EV's.
     
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  2. JeffK

    JeffK Active Member

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    Just about yes... the master plan document actually called out half of $89k which is $44.5K but in my opinion $57,400 is a pretty decent decrease. In Elon's defense he did say "roughly half"
    $57k is a far cry from twice the price of the roadster though @Blissedout
     
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  3. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

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    ... and Model 3 will be "roughly half" of the price of Model S today (but not the original base price in 2012).
     
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  4. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    Wow. I disagree with pretty much every thing you wrote here, though I understand why someone might see things your way. Allow me to go through this bit-by-bit...

    As I noted elsewhere, the days of sub-$20,000 new cars is coming to an end... SOON. You don't have to believe it, but it's true. It is far more likely that a version of the Model ≡ will go down to $25,000 than it is the base car will go up to $65,000. In fact, I'd guess the BMW 3-Series will have a base price over $65,000 -- to hide from Civic, Accord, Corolla, Accord, and Model ≡ first. Just as BMW, AUDI, and Mercedes-Benz vehicles initially went further upmarket to escape Lexus and Infiniti 25 years ago. Without ICE issues holding them back, Tesla will not have to follow suit.

    The Civic, Corolla, Accord, and Camry are not much different from each other. And none of them is available as a fully electric vehicle. There is bountiful crossover in the price points of these cars already. Though the average sale price for new cars is over $33,000... The majority of new cars sold are between $22,000 and $25,000.

    The Camry went down in U.S. Sales in 2016 relative to 2015. Many will point to the popularity of SUVs as the culprit. But many times during the year the Corolla threatened to take the lead from its sibling, the Camry. Those product lines will have to be adjusted in the marketplace. So Camry may well supplant Avalon and move upmarket a bit to give Corolla some elbow room.

    Sure I can. Watch me.

    Nope. I say the Model ≡ is already affordable for the majority of those looking to purchase a new car. The total cost of ownership will be better than a Civic or Corolla. And the gap between their initial price points will diminish, not increase.

    25 years ago a Mustang, Camaro, and Corvette all pretty much cost half as much as they do today. So what? People always want to pay less. If the Accord and Camry each started at $11,000 instead of $22,000 they would still be the leaders in their segment, but their Sales would not double.

    No. There won't be. Because no one is stupid enough to 'leave money on the table'. The only 'cheap' cars that outsell the top 15 passenger cars in the U.S. are used cars. Only one 'cheap' car appears among the top thirty sold here. One.

    Sure. Tesla can afford to not do stupid things. Tesla cannot afford to do stupid things.

    And they can either get a nice, used, NISSAN LEAF, or they can lobby Honda, Nissan, Toyota, Chevrolet, or Ford to build a long range 'cheap' electric car... then sit back and watch what happens. HINT: Nothing will happen.

    It's a matter of perspective. There was a guy in 2014 that gave his professional opinion that Tesla was DOOMED because there was no way in [HECK] that batteries would drop below $178 per kWh prior to 2022-2024. When queried about that prediction, Elon Musk noted he would be 'very disappointed' if it took ten years for the cost of batteries to get that low. To those who believe the supposed 'expert', if Tesla's internal cost at the Gigafactory is much lower than GM's admitted $145 per kWh for BOLT, it will indeed constitute a relative plumetting of price point. A Tesla representative admitted their cost was below $190 per kWh already. Elon has consistently stated the Gigafactory would lower their cost by at least 30% from thr outset, and possibly up to 50% before long. That would mean $133 per kWh or less from thr very beginning. When you note that just three years ago most traditional automobile manufacturers were claiming costs upward of $500 per kWh, the costs that will become prevalent within the next two or three years will have fallen off a cliff.

    I hope for your sake you last the next five years or so. That way I can have the pleasure of saying, "I told you so!" But yeah, someone else has already posted a corrective link that proves the opposite of your opinion.

    The Tesla Model S 40 was the 'affordable car'. Nobody wanted it. So it went away. Compared to that, the Model ≡ is indeed the 'even more affordable' car. Tesla does not use the word 'luxury' to describe their products. They may acknowledge that third parties use the word, but they don't use it themselves. Pay attention and stop using revisionist history techniques.
     
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  5. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    ICs drop in price because they can get more performance using the same amount of material. Batteries are improving in price for the same reason. The rate is different, but the fundamentals are the same.
     
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  6. Red Sage

    Red Sage The Cybernetic Samurai

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    Not so much inflation as profit chasing. Some companies raise their prices just to distance themselves from direct competition from products offered by others. Some choose to foster an 'air of exclusivity' by having higher prices.
     
  7. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    Then we agree. Battery costs are coming down and will continue to do so. :)
     
  8. Blissedout

    Blissedout Member

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    I stand corrected.
     
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  9. Troy

    Troy Member

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    #569 Troy, Mar 19, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 19, 2017
    Last month there was a discussion in this thread about software limited Model 3 packs and I said it won't happen because those have low gross margins and Tesla is trying to reach 30% gross margin. I also said Tesla would discontinue the 60 kWh Model S soon. Check out my message HERE. Now Tesla has confirmed they will discontinue the 60 next month. This means Tesla won't have any software limited battery pack option after the 60 is gone. Hopefully, people have now given up on the idea that the Model 3 will have a software limited pack option. It's not going to happen.

    Reaching 30% gross margin is one of the promises Elon made to the board. Check out the list here:
    Tesla’s market cap reaches last milestone of Elon Musk’s $1 billion CEO stock option plan – will he stay CEO for long?
     
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  10. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    I'm not convinced of that. I think that this is something that Tesla is going to trot out periodically as it serves their quarterly purposes - perhaps not with the initial Model 3s - but certainly at some point.

    The smaller battery isn't that much less costly than the larger ones. You have the same shell, cooling system, contactor, mounting system, etc... The only difference is, literally, the cost of the additional cells. And, conversely, there's some cost in maintaining multiple battery hardware configurations.

    As the cost of Tesla's cells approach $100/kw, the additional cost of the building the added capacity becomes relatively minor. And there is more and more motivation for Tesla to do software enabled upgrades, as they have with the AP hardware. Put it in, and enough buyers will eventually buy the (overpriced) upgrade and turn a nice profit.

    Tesla did make a mistake with the 60/75. They made the cars too close in effective capacity, and there was too little motivation for the 60 drivers to upgrade.
     
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  11. mkjayakumar

    mkjayakumar Active Member

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    I think big part of the problem was while 60 kWh is really 60, 75kWh was much less than 75, thus making the difference in range really not that appealing.
     
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  12. Troy

    Troy Member

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    #572 Troy, Mar 20, 2017
    Last edited: Mar 20, 2017
    These are my Model 3 related predictions:
    • Model 3 will be released in two battery sizes, not three.
    • The smallest Model 3 battery size will be 55 kWh.
    • The largest Model 3 battery size will be 75 kWh.
    • The Model 3 won't have any software limited battery pack option when released.
    • The Model 3 won't have a HUD when it's released.
    • When the configurator for the Model 3 opens, the 0-60 time for the quickest version will be 3.5 seconds or less.
    • The first Model 3 deliveries (to Tesla insiders, not to regular customers) will start before 30th Sep 2017.
    • The longest-range version of the Model 3 will have at least 290 miles EPA rated range.
    • In 2017 Tesla will deliver between 35,000 and 55,000 Model 3's.
    I wrote these in this thread: Prediction Thread - "You Called It" Also, I have added them to the spreadsheet in the opening message of that thread. HERE is a direct link to that file. If you look at the spreadsheet, there are contradicting opinions. For example, somebody else has predicted that the Model 3 will have a HUD. I predict that it won't. I could be wrong. I might be wrong on other things. If you think you are good at predictions, feel free to add your versions to that topic and to the spreadsheet.
     
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  13. tono

    tono New Member

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    [Quote = "Troy, de la publicación: 2016315, miembro de: 38689"] Estas son mis predicciones relacionadas Modelo 3:
    • Modelo 3 será lanzado en dos tamaños de batería, no tres.
    • El tamaño de la batería Modelo 3 más pequeña será de 55 kWh.
    • El modelo 3 tamaño más grande de la batería será de 75 kWh.
    • El Modelo 3 no tendrá ninguna opción de batería limitada de software cuando se suelta.
    • El modelo 3 no tendrá un HUD cuando salga al mercado.
    • Cuando el configurador para el Modelo 3 se abre, el tiempo de 0-60 para la versión más rápida será de 3,5 segundos o menos.
    • El primer modelo 3 entregas (con información privilegiada Tesla, no a los clientes habituales) se iniciará antes del 30 de Sep de 2017.
    • La versión de mayor alcance del Modelo 3 tendrá al menos 290 millas de la EPA Rango nominal.
    • En 2017 Tesla entregará entre 35.000 y 55.000 Modelo de 3.
    Escribí estas en este hilo: Predicción de rosca - "Usted lo llamó" Además, los he añadido a la hoja de cálculo en el mensaje de apertura de ese hilo. Aquí es un enlace directo a ese archivo. Si nos fijamos en la hoja de cálculo, hay opiniones contradictorias. Por ejemplo, alguien más ha predicho que el Modelo 3 tendrá un HUD. Mi predicción es que no lo hará. Podría estar equivocado. Puedo estar equivocado en otras cosas. Si usted piensa que usted es bueno en las predicciones, no dude en añadir sus versiones a ese tema y para la hoja de cálculo. [/ Quote]
     
  14. tono

    tono New Member

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    My prediction is that all battery packs will be equal to 75 kwh and the base model of 60 kwh expandable. That is why the S model of 60kwh disappears.
     
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  15. JeffK

    JeffK Active Member

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    I honestly think this move is temporary means to generate cash. Investors have said they don't think Tesla's latest capital raise would be enough. Tesla is probably looking at other ways to increase revenue in the short term. Getting rid of the 60 and starting another round of the referral program is a sure way to do that.
    I doubt this has anything to do with the future Model 3 packs.
     
  16. Sparky22

    Sparky22 Member

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    I think you are wrong, Tesla will have HUD as the current desine doesn't look or feel "spaceship like controls" as per Elon, also I think the longest range will be over 300 miles considering the new 2170 cells, the rest you might be correct.
     
  17. Lukas99

    Lukas99 Member

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    This forum starts to get interesting after months of no real info :)... Agree that 75kWh might be the highest pack for now, I take 55 or 60kWh as base. I think there will be big ego at play when it comes to beating Bolt's range, so maybe will get a 60kWh pack as base, let's see :)... What I am really curious is how much is Tesla going to ask for a 15kWh upgrade. Based on the S60 story, the unlock is 8000USD or about, right? That's more than 500USD/kWh, which is outrageous, compared to 150-190USD cost per kWh that's quoted often as today's reality. With Model 3, I think the pricing strategy needs to be adjusted. Skimming part is over with Model 3, so I hope upgrades including battery pack will be more "real" as I think the elasticity in uptake will be huge. E.g. If those extra 15kWh were lets say 3k USD, my bet is that 60-70% of customers would go for it... Just a thought, but I really hope the upgrade cost will become more favorable with M3.
     
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  18. zenmaster

    zenmaster Member

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    I think Troy may be right simply because a HUD is not a practical option to display "primarily referenced" driving info which, otherwise, must be off to the right on the 15" panel. The price point for projection tech that works with sunglass wearing drivers is available, but probably too expensive. It is also doubtful that Tesla would adopt the kludegy aesthetic of the "portable HUD" alternative which has been manufactured into some lower-end car models and also available from numerous 3rd parties.
     
  19. Model 3

    Model 3 Active Member

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    Just remember that a TMS 60 actually is a TMS 75 with rebate and an SW limit on the battery. So, you may as well say that this 500USD/kWh is (a bit more then) the rebate you get to accept that you can't use all of the capacity of the battery... Of course you have to pay back the rebate (and some administrative fee) if you want to go from the rebated 60 back to the original 75.

    Just to give you an another point of view :)

    ... and yes, I fully expect the kWh price of the TM3 GF-I batteries to be lower then it is on the Gen-II cars.
     
  20. garsh

    garsh Re Member

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    We've already had a Tesla executive state that the base battery will be less than 60kWh. I think 55kWh is a good guess.

    I've done some calculations based on what we believe the size of the Model 3 to be, and the layout of the modules as shown on the video behind Musk during the reveal. I came to the conclusion that the largest possible battery pack size would be 85kWh, with a chance of 90kWh if the new cells have better chemistry than current cells in addition to the volume difference.
     
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